Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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2
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1answer
82 views

Convert volatility to yield

I have an elementary bond volatility math question - if 5y black vol is 38 and normal vol is 68, and the yield is 1.85%, how do I calculate 1 stdev in yield terms? As in how many basis points (or ...
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1answer
330 views

Volatility surface for Swaptions

I understand the volatility surface for swaption is built using implied vols of ATM swaptions. I had a question on the instruments that are used. Should the instruments used change depending on the ...
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0answers
51 views

Why do coefficients flip after the including a lag in the optimisation? implied volatility/skewness/ivspreads

I'm hoping some of you guys can help me out. I am applying the paramametric portfolio optimisation of Brandt, Michael W., Pedro Santa-Clara, and Rossen Valkanov. in which the weights on specific ...
2
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0answers
18 views

how to model NGARCH using 5min frequency data?

NGARCH model using 5-min High-frequency data in R I wanted to analyze some 5 minute frequency data of stock market. My teacher asked me to use NGARCH to model, but I didn't know how to program.Here ...
3
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1answer
125 views

Dorfleitner's Standard Deviation

Can someone please advise how to compute the following (as my results go into thousands): E.g. I have used and the result (for T=12) = 580103.7261 Thanks
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3answers
497 views

What is the appropriate benchmark for a Long/Short VIX futures strategy?

Trying to figure out the benchmark for a L/S Vix futures stragegy, doesn't seem like only long or short Vix futures would be appropriate, any ideas? Thx
2
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1answer
78 views

What is the annualized realized volatility of simulated Brownian motion paths?

I saw this following question in an exam. Take a Brownian motion simulation with drift 5% and annualized volatility of 20% for a period of 1 year. Then the annualized realized volatility of the ...
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1answer
967 views

Constructing Volatility Smile from American Options

My question is about best practices for reconstructing volatility smiles for a fixed tenor from American option data. For simplicity/liquidity, I am currently considering options on SPY. I am ...
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0answers
41 views

looking for a simple realistic parametric volatility model

Which parametric volatility is realistic to test quickly and qualitatively a model? I do not wish to fit market quotes but would like to have a non-trivial volatility with skew or smile to do some MC ...
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1answer
28 views

Confidence Intervals for ARMA+GARCH forecasts

I have fitted an ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model to my logreturns series. When it comes to my standarized error's distribution however, I have opted for a Skewed Generalized Error Distribution, because of ...
10
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1answer
555 views

Variance swap volatility - ATMF vol, Skew and Curvature

In a pure diffusion setting, it is a well known result that the volatility $\sigma_T$ of a fresh-start variance swap of maturity $T$ as seen of $t=0$ verifies \begin{align} \sigma_T^2 &= \Bbb{E}_0^...
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28 views

Negative drift when calibrating GBM parameters

Setup for question: Consider a basket of $N$ stocks $\{S^1, S^2, \dots, S^N\}$. For fixed strike $K$, each stock in the basket, $S^i$, follows the SDE $$dS_t^i = \mu^i(t) S_t^i dt + \sigma^i(K, t) ...
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7answers
4k views

Why does the VIX index have *any* correlation to the market?

It appears that the log 'returns' of the VIX index have a (negative) correlation to the log 'returns' of e.g. the S&P 500 index. The r-squared is on the order of 0.7. I thought VIX was supposed to ...
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18 views

Arbitrage bounds on volatility of price of binary option?

What are the arbitrage bounds on the volatility of the price of a binary option? If the binary price moves too much (such that it violates the arbitrage bounds) what trades would you actually execute ...
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2answers
519 views

Measuring unbiased estimator for variance with RMSE?

The root mean squared error (RMSE) is considered by some to be the best measure of how good a variance estimate is. You often see it quoted as: $RMSE=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n(\hat{\sigma_i} - \...
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1answer
157 views

Relationship between asset volatility and debt and equity value

So how I understand it, higher asset volatility implies a higher call option price. The Merton Model holds that the value of equity is a call option. This therefore implies that the equity value must ...
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1answer
157 views

Multivariate Markov Regime switching GARCH

I have a regression with 4 independent variables and a dependent variable. I want to implement a Regime switching GARCH model but have been unable to find a package in R,Python or Matlab. MSGARCH ...
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0answers
20 views

How do I export data from the volatility lab?

I am trying to export data from the volatility lab within the interactive brokers TWS platform. Specifically, I am interested in implied volatility and historical volatility for specific tickers. ...
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19 views

Volatility Skew fitting in R; Calculate option delta using various volatility dynamics

Given a fixed maturity option chain, i was wondering if there is any way to evaluation an option against this volatility surface and compute the various delta of the options wrt to volatility dynamics ...
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1answer
132 views

Rough Volatility Prediction - Gatheral, Jaisson, Rosenbaum Paper

I just read through the paper "Volatility Is Rough" by Gatheral, Jaisson and Rosenbaum. There is a website (link: http://tpq.io/p/rough_volatility_with_python.html) that details the simulations they ...
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3answers
180 views

Can increase in volatility reduce the price of a deeply in-the-money European put?

Hull states that option prices increase with an increase in volatility. I think that statement could be false in a specific scenario: when we are considering a deeply in-the-money European put ...
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1answer
111 views

Are extended SABR models useful for options with non-negative underlying

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2731359 http://janroman.dhis.org/finance/SABR/ZABR%20Andreasen.pdf In the two articles listed above we see several ways to extend the original ...
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Anyone know if this daily report discontinue to publish? Goldman Sachs - “Global Index Volatility and Correlation Monitor”

I used to receive this daily report in my workplace from Goldman Sachs mailing list but the mailing list discontinued in May 2019 without any notice. The report is an pdf attachment which send from "...
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1answer
81 views

Volatility Skew Theory

This is the case for equity options, however for foreign exchange options the volatility only decreased at ATM. Why is it that the vol used for one type of out/in the money is higher than the other, ...
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26 views

Price moneyness vs spread moneyness for credit index options (CDX HY)

Is spread moneyness equivalent to price moneyness for volatility surfaces of CDX HY? In other words, is the ISDA converter a linear transformation? I have market data that I need to convert to input ...
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2answers
100 views

Converting 30day annualized vol to 2day annualized vol

I would like to convert 30-day annualized volatility $\sigma_{30d}^a$ to 2-day annualized volatility $\sigma_{2d}^a$. Am i right to say: $$\sigma_{2d}^a = \sqrt{\frac{2}{30}} \cdot \sigma_{30d}^a$$ ...
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78 views

Is it possible to compute implied returns from volatility?

If we assume that, broadly speaking: Assets in liquid markets are fairly priced to its value Volatility is predictable (volatility clustering, GARCH, etc) Investors are rewarded and earn a return for ...
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33 views

Varswap replication product

I would like to ask about a product that some Flow desks sell : Varswap replication strategies. I know that it consists of weighted basket of calls and puts , however I would like to know how does it ...
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35 views

Spread vol for interest rate spread options in normal environment

Suppose I am long spread option with underlying : rate A - rate B. The vega on the option would be positive. But if I want to compute the option vega with respect to individual rates, can I use the ...
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1answer
296 views

Understanding the ZABR model (an extension of SABR)

http://janroman.dhis.org/finance/SABR/ZABR%20Andreasen.pdf In this acticle the SABR model is first presented in another form ( see equation 7 in the article ) and then extended to the so called ZABR ...
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2answers
99 views

What is the best book to learn about local vs. stochastic volatility, modelling and pricing of Exotics?

I am starting to delve into the world of Exotics and I am trying to find a rigorous yet understandable book that covers both mathematically and qualitatively (especially mathematically) the following ...
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1answer
44 views

stock specific volatility

I was unsure about the precise definition of "stock specific volatility". Used in this question "A stock has beta of 2.0 and stock specific daily volatility of 0.02. Suppose that yesterday's closing ...
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1answer
3k views

Probability of stock closing over a certain price

A stock has beta of 2.0 and stock specific daily volatility of 0.02. Suppose that yesterday's closing price was 100 and today the market goes up by 1%. What's the probability of today's closing price ...
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0answers
37 views

Is $\sigma_{1} = \frac{\sigma_{\tau}}{\sqrt{\tau}}$ suitable for volatility scaling?

It seems to be the de-facto method; and I see how we get it from log-normal assumption. However volatility scaling seems to be way more sensitive to $\tau$ than mean scaling -- as in two ~ 2 times (...
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1answer
77 views

Trading Vol with options

One can trade vol swap to get exposure of the volatility of the underlying security in a 'clean' way. On the other hand, we know that vol swap, theoretically can be replicated by a dynamic position of ...
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34 views

Swaption pricing and strategies

I am looking for resources (books, papers, websites, etc.) that deal with Vanilla and Exotic swaptions from a more advanced and quantitative perspective. I am interested in both the pricing side (e.g. ...
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30 views

Implied volatility of Treasury options

For practitioners, does the concept of implied volatility also apply to (European) Treasury Options (whose underlying is Treasury Futures contracts)? For the standard individual stock vanilla ...
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1answer
61 views

Interpretation conditional volatility plot

I have plotten the log differences of exchange rates and in the same plot, I show the conditional volatility $\sigma_t^2$. The conditional volatility follows approximately the same path, but is much ...
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55 views

Interpolation of SVI Implied Volatility in parameter space

I am currently working with a slice-wise SVI parametrisation of the implied volatility surface. $\sigma^2(x,t) = a_t + b_t (\rho_t (x - m_t) + \sqrt{(x - m_t)^2 + \theta^2})$ Does anyone have ...
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42 views

Calculation of the risk free rate

For portfolio management I need the risk-free to compute the sharpe ratio. I would like the use to rate on the 3 month treasury bill from the US. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TB3MS#0 The ...
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1answer
214 views

How to determine the risk-neutral measure in a Heston model?

To clarify, I'm quite familiar with the risk-neutral pricing framework, and I know one can efficiently Monte-Carlo a Heston model via the non-central $\chi^2$ distribution approach. But so far we're ...
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0answers
62 views

What is the cause of a “broken” volatility surface?

I am currently working on a project for which I need the implied volatility surfaces, to estimate the value of plain-vanilla European options with different strikes (cannot be observed directly in the ...
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1answer
121 views

Squared returns and volatility

Squared returns are considered pillars of GARCH/ARCH modelling and most used method for forecasting or studying volatility. Can you tell me how to calculate it from simple stock price. Is it better ...
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0answers
54 views

Cross Effect in OLS

I am using cross effect in OLS regression for a time series problem for a multivariate regression. I want to quote reference for use of cross effect. Secondly, I want to explain why better to use ...
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2answers
137 views

Forward Volatility vs Spot Volatility in Option Skew Models

My question is regarding Volatility Skew Models and their inputs. I have noticed that a vast majority of models take as an input the forward of the underlying (even in the case of stocks - where the ...
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0answers
28 views

How can i fit the following regression in R? Why is the coefficient [second Columns] for R so low?

'Rwml' is the monthly log return So the first column is clear, I got nearly the same values, at least the same magnitude. But: If I regress on the variance, my input values are way too low to get a ...
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1answer
2k views

What is the unconditional variance for a GARCH model?

I want to use a Matlab script to calculate Heston Nandi GARCH prices. I found an appropriate script online and it asks for the "unconditional variance" as an input. How do I calculate the appropriate ...
2
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1answer
83 views

Black's Approximation - Discrete dividend for Put Options

I am currently trying to price and option chain for dividend paying stocks (american style exercise). I am able to calculate the Net Present Value (NPV) of dividends until maturity and then apply ...
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1answer
120 views

Half life of Exponetial Weighted Moving Average

I am trying to apply a volatility strategy. I am reading a paper where the authors defined the volatility as: "Exponential Weighted Volatility of returns with a 1-year window and 3-month half-life" ...