Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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1answer
696 views

Is volatility for the next day forecastable? To any extent?

In a more general way: is there 1) a methodological approach to quantify the correctness of a model that produces a probability distribution for the, say, S&P 500 index return for the next ...
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39 views

Which delta-neutral construction method to pick? [closed]

There seem to be at least two methods that I know of: Classic buy option, sell underlying (or the reverse). Buy call and put (or the reverse). ... (I imagine there are others as well) In the context ...
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25 views

GARCH model using high frequency price return

In a GARCH(1,1) model for time intervals of length $k\delta$, $$h(t,t+k\delta) = c+a\,r(t-k\delta,t)^2 +b\,h(t-k\delta,t) \tag1$$ where $h(t-k\delta,t)$ is the estimated variance for the and $r(t-k\...
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103 views

Methods of quantifying shifts in return distributions

I am studying and running some experiments on minute-resolution asset returns and visualizing shifts in the return distribution across a moving window. The returns have fatter tails than if one used a ...
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35 views

transforming variables

I am would like to create a regression model with different variables however before using these variables in my regression model I would like to transform the variable in order to make it more ...
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1answer
146 views

Expected Delta hedging frequency as function of implied (and realized) volatility

I'm looking for a proxy (or some rule of thumb) that can create a link between the implied volatility, the realized volatility and the frequency of Delta hedging required to keep the Delta as close as ...
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1answer
49 views

How to get exposure to realised volatility while being vega neutral?

Let's say I am predicting the realised volatility of a stock index. I am buying or selling straddles based on whether the predicted vol is higher or lower than the implied ATM volatility for the ...
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41 views

garch(1,1) Annualised Volitility with python

I am trying to calculate the annualized Volatility of given returns for a stock with Garch(1,1) on python using a code I found online. The value I should be getting is around 27, but the value I am ...
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3answers
149 views

Premium Currency and Volatility

Does the volatility of a Currency Pair depend on the currency in which the premium is paid? For example- will the Volatility of USDJPY change if the premium is paid in USD instead of JPY. Is there any ...
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66 views

Why a model like GARCH is only good for daily volatility and not for intraday volatilities?

I´m currently looking to implement an intraday volatility model and I´m new at the quant world and I learned how superior is GARCH family is for daily volatilities, but in the research stage I found ...
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48 views

Behavior of Vega PnL for 6 month ATM S&P500 option

I am interpolating the vol surface for 6 months maturity from price data for S&P500 options. For this vol smile I compute the ATM strike. I then assume I can buy a call option at this strike, ...
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1answer
37 views

Trading butterfly a long vol or short vol

Sorry for what could be a naive question. When is the right time to trade a butterfly i.e. (buy 10d call and put vs sell atm all notional flat) is it when implied vols are high or low (relative to ...
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1answer
60 views

Hedging predicted volatility

Q. If you predict the volatility of the stock is 10% a year from now and current price is X dollar, how do you hedge the risk? Im not sure why I am finding this so hard. How do we use options (...
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34 views

Price volatility short-term (10 seconds) forecast

Dataset: list of all realized trades (BTCUSDT) from a certain cryptoexchange with timestamps (15 days worth of data) Problem: predict the "price volatility" (standard deviation of realized ...
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3answers
160 views

Identifying “logical” segments on trading charts

The chart below is the 15-minute EURUSD from earlier today. The blue lines represent dividers between three subjective but reasonable segments that can easily be made out by the eye. I would ...
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1answer
99 views

Confidence Intervals for ARMA+GARCH forecasts

I have fitted an ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model to my logreturns series. When it comes to my standarized error's distribution however, I have opted for a Skewed Generalized Error Distribution, because of ...
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0answers
45 views

Black Scholes implied volatility [closed]

I am reading up on implied volatility and I encountered the term Black-Scholes implied volatility which I haven't heard before. What is the meaning of this term? Say I am looking at the Heston model ...
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1answer
125 views

Valuation of Variance Swap

Let say I have a Variance Swap contract which is based on daily closing prices (not the continuous variance calculation) and will last between the day interval $T_1$...
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1answer
210 views

VXX Put pricing

Last week at Friday's close, the Dec 14 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.68 with VXX at \$40.29. This week at Friday's close, the Dec 21 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.38 with VXX at \$40.50....
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2answers
703 views

Measuring unbiased estimator for variance with RMSE?

The root mean squared error (RMSE) is considered by some to be the best measure of how good a variance estimate is. You often see it quoted as: $RMSE=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n(\hat{\sigma_i} - \...
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41 views

Why are FX options vols quoted in 25RR and 25BF terms instead of by strike like credit options?

Credit options follow a quoting convention for the vols based on strike, which fits in neatly with the Black-Scholes framework. So why are FX options vols quoted in terms of 25-delta Risk Reversals ...
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2answers
114 views

Extract the short-run and long-run volatility of any time series with component sGarch (rugarch)

I try to estimate a component sGarch model with the rugarch package in R. My goal is to extract the short-run and long-run volatility components of any time series. I am not interested in the ...
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2answers
113 views

Calculating implied volatility index

What are common methods to compute implied volatility index? One could use VIX method on other underlying. It is also easy to limit the method to 4 atm strikes. Is this a good idea though? What are ...
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1answer
61 views

forecasting hourly variance with higher resolution data available

Assume one has price data $P_{1}, P_{2}, \dots, P_{n}$ with one hour resolution and aims to forecast the variance for one hour ahead return. The first approach to try is ARCH or GARCH models. There ...
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1answer
162 views

How many options would be required to dynamically replicate the VIX nowadays?

The VIX is a portfolio of OTM options on the SPX with non-zero quotes. From CBOE white-paper: Only SPX options quoted with non-zero bid prices are used in the VIX Index calculation. [...] As ...
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1answer
191 views

Autocall Calibration

I'm trying to price autocalls. In theory my pricing method is ok (I followed Bouzoubaa's book procedure) but I'm not sure I read anything on calibration of autocalls. Basically my question is what ...
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1answer
62 views

Optimal bandwidth for Realized Kernel

If I want to estimate Realized Kernel for 1 min bins, is there a way to compute the optimal bandwidth? In the reference paper: Realised Kernels in Practice: Trades and Quotes (Ole Barndoff-Nielsen et ...
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1answer
100 views

Calibrating Heston model parameters using the Active-set method and Levenberg–Marquardt

Background: We're estimating the parameters of the Heston model from current market data of options. This is to be implemented using the active-set method (see section 16.5 here) and the Levenberg-...
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1answer
106 views

Estimation of volatility into Black-76 formula

I am trying to estimate the (annualized) volatility that should go into an European Swaption (such as 2y5y). Given we take the black76-formula, where the discounting is the term outside the ...
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1answer
115 views

Does this volatility-like measure have a name?

So, basically I'm looking at {=SQRT(AVERAGE((R1:R100)^2))}, or in words: the square root of the average of squared daily returns. Is there a nice simple term/name ...
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1answer
93 views

VARX DCC GARCH in R for volatility spillover

I have 5 series for which I want to analyze volatility spillover (to and from the series) via VARX DCC GARCH for both dynamic and comtemporaneous effect. Moreover, I would like to analyze seasonal ...
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1answer
553 views

Pricing VIX Futures

In a 2006 paper Zhang and Zhu propose a model for VIX and VIX Futures based on Heston. I am struggling in understanding how they get equation 6 and 8 (where they define the parameters). Can anyone ...
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0answers
29 views

Volatility forecast on SPX option expiration day

I am looking for methods and papers on forecasting SPX option at-the-money implied volatility or realized volatility within its expiration day. What are some stylized facts and forecasting methods?
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60 views

Interpretation of Volatility of Volatility (VVIX)

Recently I came across the VVIX index (also known as VIX of VIX), which represents the 30 day implied (expected) Volatility of the VIX Index. I studied CBOE's Whitepaper for the VIX, which explains ...
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132 views

Easiest possible way to backtest a semi dynamic options strategy

I have a few options strategies Id like to backtest and I have some familiarity with Python. In particular Id like to backtest a "semi-dynamic" long vol. strategy putting on $0$ cost ...
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1answer
119 views

Extrapolate Implied Volatility Surface

I have a moneynessratio-tenor volatility surface and want to extrapolate the implied volatility for moneynessratios > 150%. The volatility surface was downloaded for different points in time, so I ...
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1answer
50 views

Annualised returns and volatility for 3 month data

I have a portofolio with 30 indexes and I want to calculate the annulised returns and volatility because I want to compare it with another portofolio with different number of indexes (but same time ...
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1answer
70 views

Modelling VWAP Slippage with HFT data

I heard that VWAP slippage (relative difference between the VWAP and the initial mid-price, $\varepsilon \ . \ \frac{P_{VWAP}-P_{arrival}}{P_{arrival}}$ with $\varepsilon = +1 \ or \ -1 $ the trade ...
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2answers
88 views

Black Volatility using SABR model

As per the Wikipedia, the SABR model looks like below - $dF_t = \sigma_t \left(F_t\right)^{\beta} dW_t$ $d \sigma_t = \alpha \sigma_t d Z_t$ I have 3 questions - ...
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20 views

What are the components of VXN?

What are the exact components of VXN -- the volatility index for NASDAQ-100? The CBOE page links to the document for VIX, which clarifies the exact set of front-month near-the-money SPX options used ...
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0answers
14 views

Slippage Regression over volume and volatility

I would like to run a regression of slippage over volume and volatility, but I was thinking they are correlated, and their correlation increases throughout the day (U-shape). Would this corrupt my ...
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4answers
741 views

Why is asset volatility easier to estimate than the asset mean if it contains the mean?

It is well known that the variance of asset returns, $\sigma^2$ (whose square root is volatility), is easier to estimate than the asset mean $\mu$ (also known as expected return) because the mean of ...
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1answer
148 views

Portfolio Systematic Risk, Breaking it down into factor % contributions

I have a portfolio (p) of N equities, with let's say weights vector (m) at the start of the calculation period. Each equity has its own set of factors (like corresponding country, industry index, etc.)...
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1answer
116 views

LIBOR market model with stochastic volatility

I have read that there are 3 types of pricing models: local volatility, stochastic volatility and stochastic-local volatility models (LSV). I am now looking at interest rates exotics pricing models ...
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12 views

Use of ugarchroll vs ugarchforecast: setting parameters

I would like to generate 21 day ahead forecast volatility with ugarchroll. I know it is similar to ugarchforecast with the exception that ugarchroll is a rolling average which considers initially the ...
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2answers
66 views

Value Option with Forward Volatilities

That is probably a rather simple question but I got confused and would be very thankful for help. Imagine we are in 2015 and have an option that expires in either 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021. ...
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1answer
718 views

Probability of exercise in the Black-Scholes Model

What's the intuition behind the fact that the limit of $\mathcal{N}(d_2)$, i.e. the (risk-neutral) probability of exercise, in the Black-Scholes Model tends to $0$ when the volatility tends to ...
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1answer
106 views

Do the weights of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) have to sum to 1?

I am currently trying to calculate a volatility by using the EWMA model because it is said to yield better results than just using an equal weighted calculation approach. However I am a bit confused ...
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1answer
108 views

What is volatility trading? [closed]

I have heard that there are ways that one can trade volatility with options. What option strategies can be used to do so? Are the other ways to trade volatility besides with options? If so, what ...

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