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Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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1answer
28 views

Adjusting volatility while constructing portfolio

I am trying to construct a portfolio based on a macro momentum strategy for backtesting purposes as outlined in https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/White-Papers/A-Half-Century-of-Macro-...
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4answers
819 views

How to price a volatility-index option?

There exist several volatility indices, such as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). There are also options on such indicies. What is the best way to price a volatility-index option? Is there a simple ...
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0answers
17 views

CFH TOOLBOX MATLAB OPTION PRICING [on hold]

Does anybody know CFH (Characteristic Function Option Pricing) toolbox of matlab? How does this toolbox work? I've just intalled it into my matlab and I would like to use it to pricing option with ...
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1answer
38 views

Heston model with jumps in both variance and underlying dynamic

How can I build on Matlab a Heston model using characteristic function adding jumps in both variance and underlying dynamic ? Suppose that the number of jumps is Poisson-distributed but the jump size ...
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1answer
281 views

Mixing Black Scholes with SABR

I am new to the whole concept of stochastic volatility so I am experimenting with option pricing. I think the concept is really difficult to understand / grasp. I was wondering if the following ...
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1answer
49 views

Variance of a spread for options on spreads

I was reading the paper: https://people.umass.edu/nkapadia/docs/Negative_Vega.pdf In the equation $(5)$, he is defining the variance of the spread as: $$\sigma_1^2S_1^2 + \sigma_2^2S_2^2 - 2\...
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1answer
81 views

Interpretation conditional volatility plot

I have plotten the log differences of exchange rates and in the same plot, I show the conditional volatility $\sigma_t^2$. The conditional volatility follows approximately the same path, but is much ...
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3answers
414 views

Uncertain volatility

Recently, I have encountered something called "uncertain volatility". Is it a popular concept in QF? Do practitioners use it nowadays? What are its pros and cons compared to e.g more familiar ...
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1answer
98 views

Local volatility and Stochastic Volatility

Please help me understand similarity and differences between local volatility and Stochastic Volatility both intuitively and mathematically.
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1answer
78 views

Fair Strike for Variance Swap with no Skew in IV Surface

I am reading through Derman's 1999 research notes, "More than you ever wanted to know about Volatility Swaps." In equation B4 of Appendix B, the author takes the Taylor Series of the variance swap ...
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0answers
68 views

How to correctly simulate volatility shocks?

I am working on the comparison of different volatility timing/target strategies on portfolios starting from different conditions (data, asset classes, calculation of realized volatility, different ...
5
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1answer
289 views

How to determine the risk-neutral measure in a Heston model?

To clarify, I'm quite familiar with the risk-neutral pricing framework, and I know one can efficiently Monte-Carlo a Heston model via the non-central $\chi^2$ distribution approach. But so far we're ...
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2answers
252 views

Best topics to begin Quantitative Finance Research/Programming

I have a background in mathematics (Functional Analysis and Probability Theory) and am looking to acquaint myself with research in quantitative finance, particularly with a programming component. ...
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4answers
5k views

How to normalize different instruments by volatility?

I'm trying to think on a way to normalize stocks to be on the same scale depending on their recent volatility. Is there some theoretical reference on the subject or and experience you can share?
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4answers
165 views

What is the intuition behind “jumps” causing volatility skew?

Some models use jumps as a way to explain volatility skew. I understand that if jumps exist, then you are "mishedged" as you no longer can continuously hedge. Options have a gamma component and ...
2
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1answer
94 views

annualized volatility formula is an approximation?

suddenly having troubles with the annualized volatility formula... is it really an approximation? one usually writes the standard deviation of the yearly percentage change in the stock price as $$\...
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0answers
27 views

Reading this ichimoku cloud how do you read this wdfc chart?

Having trouble reading the charts as the breakouts aren’t clear What do you see in this chart?
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1answer
127 views

In-sample volatility measurement

I would like to know what is the most reasonable way to measure volatility in a sample of past observations. Aside from standard deviation, are more complex models like GARCH used for (historical) ...
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2answers
9k views

Annualzing the log of daily returns riddle

Two popular ways to measure returns are Arithmetic returns and Log returns. Let's define arithmetic (simple period) returns as: P(t) - P(t-1) / P(t-1). Let's define log return as Ln( P(t)/P(t-1) ) or ...
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2answers
414 views

CBOE Index Minute Data

I am doing a small research and looking for a place to purchase historical minute CBOE Index data. I am interested in: VIX - CBOE Volatility Index VVIX - CBOE VIX VOLATILITY INDEX VXV - CBOE VIX ...
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0answers
24 views

ATM Curve Construction: Short-Dates

Please explain example 1 and example 2. In example 1 how does 6 appear in the square root function. And in example 2 it is written:" Assume it is known that spot will be completely static during the ...
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0answers
38 views

Volatility spread of Strangle

It's written in a book by Giles Hewitt : " The bid-offer spread quoted on a Strangle in volatility terms will usually be wider than the ATM spread to the same maturity because strikes away from the ...
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5answers
24k views

Why are GARCH models used to forecast volatility if residuals are often correlated?

The answers to this question on forecast assessment suggest that if the sequence of residuals from the forecast are not properly independent, then the model is missing something and further changes ...
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0answers
57 views

Portfolio Systematic Risk, Breaking it down into factor % contributions

I have a portfolio (p) of N equities, with let's say weights vector (m) at the start of the calculation period. Each equity has its own set of factors (like corresponding country, industry index, etc.)...
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0answers
42 views

FX Smile Curve Extrapolation

How a smooth smile curve is generated from 5 smile points : 10D RR, 25D RR, 10D SM, 25D SM and ATM? What are the commonly used extrapolation and interpolation techniques? I have seen people ...
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0answers
30 views

Realized vol/var log-normal approximation

It is not clear to me what is a better approximation (based on empirical evidence or otherwise), a log-normal approximation for realized volatility or log-normal approximation for realized variance? ...
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2answers
76 views

CDS volatility: daily return calculated by simple substraction (Pt - Pt-1)?

I am working on validating the CDS volatility generated by a third party risk engine. It appears that returns are calculated with simple substractions and adjusted for the CS01: (Price of the CDS ...
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0answers
36 views

What are popular metrics for Option Skew?

What are popular metrics to track skew? Would it be the difference between OTM option and ATM option IV? Would it be a percentage difference in IV? Also, if both are valid, would a % change be ...
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0answers
73 views

Can variance change over time?

I'm working on a toy project that involves fantasy basketball, I know this is the quantitative finance stackexchange, but it seemed like the best place to ask this question. My goal is to make ...
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0answers
20 views

What is the best method to factoring/calculating pre and post event volatility? Such as for company earnings

What is the best method to factoring/calculating pre and post event volatility? Such as for company earnings.
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0answers
40 views

How To Calculate The Implied One Day Expected Return For Earnings

I am trying to figure out how to calculate the one day expected return given I have the event volatility. In his book Trading Volatility, Correlation, Term Structure and Skew, Collin Bennet (link) ...
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3answers
239 views

Why is volatility skew/smile for long term options flatter compare to short term options?

Volatility skew/smile for long term options is flatter compared to short term options, could someone help to explain why is that the case? Thanks
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0answers
50 views

Local volatility Formula and How To use it

I'm new to Volatility Modelling, so the content of this question may be completely wrong and th question naive. I'm reading "The volatility surface" by Gatheral. I'm trying to get a sense of the first ...
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0answers
24 views

TSRV parameters selection

I'm thinking about how to select the $J$, and particularly, $K$ parameters for the Two Scale Realized Volatility estimation? I cannot find any reference for that in the original paper - there it says $...
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0answers
30 views

HAR-RV model for predicting 1-min volatility

I would like to use HAR-RV model (Heterogenous AutoRegressive - Realized Volatility) to predict a 1 minute realised volatility using the HAR model. As regressors I intend to use RV of previous minute, ...
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1answer
83 views

Duan (1995) GARCH Option Pricing Model with MATLAB

This is the MATLAB code that replicates the option pricing model proposed by Duan in his paper "The GARCH Option Pricing Model". However, the parameters estimated in the file do not match with the ...
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0answers
32 views

relationship between option vol and option payoff

Has anyone thought of the relationship between the option vol and distribution of option payoff? for example, I have 1000 paths of simulated underlying prices, keeping all inputs the same but only ...
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0answers
10 views

How to compute reference share price and reference volatility in CreditGrade?

I'm trying to implement CreditGrade in python, from the msci Technical Notes (https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/dd31bcce-6fe3-47b7-9fb7-10c4c8f750ba) but I'm running into some comprehension trouble ...
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1answer
42 views

Confidence Intervals for ARMA+GARCH forecasts

I have fitted an ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model to my logreturns series. When it comes to my standarized error's distribution however, I have opted for a Skewed Generalized Error Distribution, because of ...
5
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1answer
133 views

Why do we fit volatility surfaces implied from a option pricing model to the empirical data?

As far as I understand volatility surface. It is made of 2 components, the volatility skew/smile and the volatility term structure. Together they form something like Implied volatility is ...
3
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1answer
94 views

model high frequency bitcoin volatility

I am trying to model volatility of 1-minute returns of BTC, but it seems to me that the data do not behave traditionally. I tried fitting GARCH, eGARCH with ARMA (1,1) or (2,0), but I am not confident ...
2
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1answer
85 views

Realized Volatility Methods

Can someone explain to me which of these two methods is more accurate or commonly used to calculate Realized Volatility? I'm seeing both used, but I get very different results from them. 1) Standard ...
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0answers
56 views

Different definitions of volatility (simple question)

I have a basic question on volatility that I wanted some clarification on. In finance books (such as Hull), there's a few different ways volatility is defined. One of them is the standard deviation ...
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1answer
148 views

VXX Put pricing

Last week at Friday's close, the Dec 14 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.68 with VXX at \$40.29. This week at Friday's close, the Dec 21 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.38 with VXX at \$40.50....
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1answer
45 views

Weighting schemes - Volatility

One extension to this weighting scheme is to assume a long-run variance level in addition to weighted squared return observations. The most frequently used model is an autoregressive conditional ...
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1answer
32 views

Can I use root mean square(RMS) to calculate volatility of intraday feed data?

I've been using standard deviation as a direct/simple approach to calculate volatility of a given intraday feed data. My question is it logical/sensible that using root mean square (RMS), which is the ...
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2answers
550 views

Measuring unbiased estimator for variance with RMSE?

The root mean squared error (RMSE) is considered by some to be the best measure of how good a variance estimate is. You often see it quoted as: $RMSE=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n(\hat{\sigma_i} - \...
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2answers
89 views

Why do stocks with high sensitivities to innovations in volatility have low average returns?

Ang, Xing and Zhang (2006) state that "stocks with high sensitivities to innovations in aggregate volatility have low average returns". I am familiar that this question has been asked before in ...
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0answers
47 views

“high sensitivity to innovations in aggregate volatility”" [duplicate]

Ang, Xing and Zhang (2006) state that "stocks with high sensitivities to innovations in aggregate volatility have low average returns". I am familiar that this question has been asked before in ...
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1answer
146 views

Rough Volatility Prediction - Gatheral, Jaisson, Rosenbaum Paper

I just read through the paper "Volatility Is Rough" by Gatheral, Jaisson and Rosenbaum. There is a website (link: http://tpq.io/p/rough_volatility_with_python.html) that details the simulations they ...