Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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97 views

How skewed are FX returns? Does this look like a plausible histogram of EURUSD?

I'm reading about volatility. I've charted the histogram of EURUSD and I am wondering if this looks plausible? What I've charted are the 1-hour percent change returns (not log returns). I've removed 0 ...
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79 views

Correct terminology - estimate or model?

I am doing some academic work and I'd like to summarise the picture around volatility models. As such, I'd like to refer to several ways of estimating volatility and I'd like to use proper terminology....
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Negative Density in Local Stochastic Volatility (LSV) Model Calibration

I'm trying to calibrate Local stochastic volatility model using finite difference method, and I'm mainly following this referece: Tian (2015). I met a problem when calibrating leverage function - the ...
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Volatility for options pricing: fixed window or match maturity?

When calculating the volatility or covariance matrix of stock returns for the purpose of pricing a vanilla option on an underlying, it is difficult to choose the window over which the volatility ...
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132 views

forward variances under rough bergomi

I have seen in several papers on rough volatility using the following expression for the forward variances $$ d\xi_t(u) = \xi_t(u) \eta \sqrt{2H} (u-t)^{H-1/2}dW_t $$ Can anyone explain to me how this ...
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Implementing a Variance Swap Hedging in R

I am trying to compute a hedge for a variance swap, in a simulation. Fo that I am using the following equation:\begin{align*} E^Q\bigg(\sum_{i=1}^n \bigg(\frac{S_{t_{i}}-S_{t_{i-1}}}{S_{t_{i-1}}}\bigg)...
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Understanding GARCH

I asked this on stats.stackexchange but I realized this might be a better place to ask this question. I am new to finance and volatility forecasting and am trying to understand how garch model works. ...
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184 views

Stochastic Volatility Models - are they complete markets?

I'm reading about stochastic volatility models - the ones which resulted after Wiggins proposed in 1986/7 that $\sigma$ in Black-Scholes should be a stochastic process rather than a constant. In ...
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How does one obtain a realistic range for the VIX using its volatility if it is at its multi-year low?

Suppose the VIX index is at a hypothetical multi-year low of 15, yet the volatility of VIX has a reading of 100. If one were to surmise from this volatility of VIX a range for the VIX over the coming ...
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What is the "leverage effect" for stocks?

I've read the so-called "leverage-effect" for stocks models the fact that if a company is leveraged, its volatility should increase as the stock price moves lower and closer to the level of debt. Can ...
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The put-call parity have to be fulfilled by an asian option

Coming from here: https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/7616/43679 we have that for a European option, and due to the put-call parity, due to the non arbitrage rule, the volatility for a put and a call ...
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107 views

Short the difference between implied volatility and realized volatility of SPX

A professional trader said that the way is not to short VIX or other volatility products, but to short the difference between implied volatility and realized volatility of SPX This has to do with VRP ...
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Adjusting derived volatiles using skew

Once we obtain a prediction for the future volatility using (GARCH, HARQ, etc), do we have to adjust the implied volatility dependent on the strike price. How would we incorporate a skew versus a ...
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56 views

Black Standard Deviation in QuantLibXL

I was having a doubt about a fucntion in the QuantLib add-on for excel. What is the formula for the function: qlBlackFormulaImpliedStdDev(...) I know that there ...
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Converting Historical Volatility to Implied Move

I am trying to calculate an implied one-day move value for an instrument given its historical volatility. While I am familiar with this formula for implied volatility to implied move: and intuition ...
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Volatility pumping in practice

The fascinating thing about volatility pumping (or optimal growth portfolio, see e.g. here) is that here volatility is not the same as risk, rather it represents opportunity. Additionally it is a ...
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How to properly annualize portfolio volatility

I have a portfolio consisting of several assets and I'm using daily data to calculate various portfolio metrics, including historical returns and volatility. In order to compare portfolio performance ...
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49 views

Multiple Indices for CAPM model [closed]

I am new to quantitative finance so, please excuse me if the terms are not correct. I am trying to apply CAPM on a portfolio which has multiple indices (S&P 500, Russel 1000 and S&P Financials)...
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748 views

Do the weights of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) have to sum to 1?

I am currently trying to calculate a volatility by using the EWMA model because it is said to yield better results than just using an equal weighted calculation approach. However I am a bit confused ...
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26 views

open-close intraday demeaned log return calculation

open-close return is basically what I feed into the realized kernel volatility and recently I noticed the realized kernel covariance/variance is generating negative value so I had to retrace my ...
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56 views

Log Moneyness vs Log Strike

In How to calibrate a volatility surface using SVI, is said: "(log-moneyness would be more accurate) ". First, why do we talk about "moneyness", is it a reference of "being in ...
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weekly returns and the daily returns scaled to weekly

I am new in this blog and first of all I want to apologise for my english. I have to calculate, for a university project, the weekly returns and daily scaled returns to weekly for few stocks For ...
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56 views

Sub-portfolio correlation

I am trying to reduce correlation matrices into sub portfolios. For example, I have a covariance matrix $\Sigma$ and weight-vector $w$ of two line items which I blend together into a sub-portfolio $\...
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does anybody know a package for the estimation in python of multivariate garch model? [duplicate]

is there any package in python for the estimation of multivariate garch models? (bekk, dcc) i tried with the package mgarch but it provides only a few commands and wanted to know if there are some ...
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116 views

Rebonatos's formula in C++

I'm trying to code in C++ Rebonato's formula for swaption volatilities $$ v_{\alpha,\beta}^2=\frac{1}{T_\alpha} \sum_{i,j=\alpha+1}^{\beta} \frac{w_i(0)w_j(0)F_i(0)F_j(0)}{S_{\alpha\beta}^2(0)}\rho_{i,...
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Is scaling the standard deviations in the VaR formula (parametric) equivalent to scaling the VaR figure at the end?

I have come across people calculating parametric VaR who scaled the standard deviations by say square root of 10 to scale up to a 10 day horizon. Elsewhere I have seen textbooks suggesting that it is ...
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133 views

How does trndbot generate buy/sell signals?

I was looking at trndbot and it's buy/sell signals are pretty good - what algorithm are they using to generate these signals? Although it maybe similar to bollinger bands, it algorithmically ...
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132 views

Dupire (Local Vol with Imp Vol)

I am trying to implement a local volatility pricer using Monte Carlo and Dupire's equation in function of implied volatilities and I was told that first of all I have to check Dupire is well ...
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54 views

Should diverging valuation multiples affect beta estimate?

Suppose we experience a significant equity market crash. All equities are affected, but the drawdown disproportionately affects equities in a specific sector - for example, say the broad equity market ...
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113 views

Is there a HAR that deals with the leverage effect?

The EGARCH is a special GARCH model that treats the leverage effect of the volatility. The HARV does not make a distinction between negative and positive returns. Is there a special HARV that deals ...
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4answers
214 views

Identifying "logical" segments on trading charts

The chart below is the 15-minute EURUSD from earlier today. The blue lines represent dividers between three subjective but reasonable segments that can easily be made out by the eye. I would ...
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165 views

Use of ugarchroll vs ugarchforecast: setting parameters

I would like to generate 21 day ahead forecast volatility with ugarchroll. I know it is similar to ugarchforecast with the exception that ugarchroll is a rolling average which considers initially the ...
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251 views

GARCH(1,1) forecast plot in R with training data

I've fit a GARCH(1,1) model in R and would like to create a plot similar to the one in this question: Is this the correct way to forecast stock price volatility using GARCH Could someone direct me to ...
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75 views

Forecasting returns and volatility using ARIMA-GARCH model in R

I am using rugarch package in R to forecast returns and volatility of a stock. I train an ARIMA (p ,d q) + GARCH(s, r) model on ...
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360 views

Are Cont's "stylized facts" based on reliable evidence?

A highly cited article "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues" by R. Cont use the Figure 8. below to illustrate the well-known phenomenon of volatility ...
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170 views

Stochastic Volatility vs Vanna-Volga

I'm working on the calibration of the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model for some FX option data for my bachelor thesis and I was asked "Why should people use Heston instead of other simple ...
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93 views

How to annualise hourly returns?

I have hourly open,high,low,close candles data for a particular asset. I wrote my own algo and some back testing code that replays the data from the past hourly candles to calculate the total return ...
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320 views

Local volatility and Stochastic Volatility

Please help me understand similarity and differences between local volatility and Stochastic Volatility both intuitively and mathematically.
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70 views

Swaption extrapolation

I have some ATM swaption volatilities with the following characteristics: (-IBOR) payment frequency: 1M Underlying swap maturities (tail): 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 15Y and 20Y Swaption expiries: 1M, 3M, 6M, ...
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Estimation of time series using GARCH on Eviews

Firstly I should mention that I am new to both Eviews and GARCH models. Anyway, I am conducting some research into the effect that different macroeconomic factors have had on stock index volatility ...
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164 views

Options Weighted Vega Derivation

Does anyone have a good reference on how to derive time weighted vega for options? The only literature I found was in this presentation: http://www.topquants.nl/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/...
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49 views

Quantlib error initializing CapFloor C++ Class

I'd like to use QuantLib as a C++ library to price interest rate derivatives, in particular Cap&Floors. To semplify things a little, let's say I have a vector of EURLibor1Y rates for different ...
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53 views

Volatility of basket with constituents priced in different currencies

I'm wondering how the volatility of basket of constituents priced in different currencies can be calculated (without upfront bringing constituent price to basket currency) form volatilities of ...
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84 views

Why are these two methods to calculate standard deviation gives very different answers? [closed]

Values=[100, 101, 102.01, 103.03] Method 1: Sum of the squared differences from the mean Mean = 101.51 std = sqrt(((100 - 101.51)^2 + (101 - 101.51)^2 + (102 - 101.51)^2 + (103 - 101.51)^2) / 4) = 1....
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2k views

Does the unconditional variance implied by a GARCH equal the sample variance?

In the MATLAB default settings for GARCH estimation they say "presample conditional variance is the sample average of the squared disturbances of the offset-adjusted response data y". Am I right in ...
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49 views

What's a sensible way to measure correlation in the volatility surface?

Lets say I construct a parametrisation of the volatility surface that lets me infer dynamics i.e correlation between strike vol. Is computing the sample correlation (after controlling for spot-vol ...
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3answers
440 views

What is IV really? Why does an option that is about to expire have such high IV for OTM options?

I was reading this definition: https://investorplace.com/2018/08/what-is-implied-volatility-concern-investors-invtlk/ If its IV stands at 20%, a movement of 20%, or $20 per share, over a 12-month ...
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138 views

Clean noisy data from arbitrage

My problem is that I have a surface of implied black volatilites that is supposed to represent market data. However, the surface contains some slight arbitrage. More precisely, the graph contains ...
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121 views

Resources to learn the applications of SVD in quant finance?

I have been searching for quite a while on how singular value decomposition is used in analyzing stock price behavior. I know how to perform it on a matrix of stock prices, have the results in python ...

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