Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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538 views

Volatility swaps historical data

I am preparing a study about Volatility and Variance Swaps. Does anyone know where I can found historical public data regarding this instruments? Thanks!
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Is there a relation between the so-called volatility drag and the sigma term in Black-Scholes' model? [duplicate]

The closed-form solution of Black Scholes Dynamics $dS_t=S_t(\mu dt +\sigma dW_t$) is $$S_t=S_0 e^{(\mu -\sigma ^2/2) t+\sigma dW_t}.$$ The $-\sigma^2/2$ term is quite similar to the volatility drag ...
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Relationship between risk and return for GBM and riskless bond

Suppose we have $S$, a stock following geometric Brownian motion ($dS_t = S_t (\mu dt + \sigma dZ_t)$ for $Z =$ Brownian motion) and $B$, a zero coupon bond with rate $r$, i.e. $dB_t = rB_t dt$. In ...
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Angular bracket notation (physics)

In a few papers I have seen the following notation: $$ \langle X_t \rangle $$ Also, in Bergomi's book, at page 8, we have the following equality: $$ \biggr\langle \int_0^T e^{-rt}s^2 \frac{d^2P_{\hat{\...
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Why approximating dSigma/dS with dSigma/dK changes the ATM volatility at twice the rate?

I'm referring to the paper "Delta Hedging With a Smile", Sami Vahamaa (2004). It mentions: By approximating ∂σ/∂S with ∂σ/∂K, it is assumed that as S changes by one unit, there is a ...
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Option Price vs. Implied Volatility

I was doing an exercise on investigating the relationship between European Call option price and its volatility. I was asked to compute $\frac{\partial^2C}{\partial \sigma^2}$ and find out the domain ...
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824 views

Why is Bachelier implied volatility more skewed than the Black-Scholes implied volatility?

I found the following explanation in a paper by Grunspan (see attached paper page 6) but have trouble understanding it: By differentiating Formula (3) with respect to m, it turns out that the ...
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How to interpret Realized Volatility and TSRV using R

I am looking at some high frequency data and I would like to know how to interpret and compare Realized volatility (RV) and Two Scale Realized Volatility (TSRV). References below. Given X is the log ...
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Applying GARCH to Panel Data

I have a panel consisting of some quantity - say earnings/cash flows/or something similar. I am interested in forecasting the volatility that is inherent to that respective measure. In a single time ...
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15-min, 30-min and 60-min volatility forecasts

I have high-frequency market data (irregularly spaced nanosecond timestamps) and would like to compute the volatility forecasts of the next 15, 30 and 60 minutes. Most of the literature I looked up ...
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Is there Cornish-Fisher volatility, given that there is Cornish-Fisher Value-at-Risk?

The Cornish-Fisher expansion is used to approximate the quantile $q_\alpha$ of a return distribution in order to extend the traditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) measure $$VaR = \mu(X) + \sigma(X) q_\alpha $...
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Call/Put Open interest difference on similar underlying

High open interest for a given option contract is an indicator for interest in that option. For that reason I wanted to take a look at how the open interest of options on volatility have evolved in ...
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Expected Forward Volatility vs. Different Strikes

While theoretical options prices are derived from models, such as Black-Scholes, IV and IV skew reminds us that options prices are ultimately based on supply and demand. My question is the following: ...
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363 views

Implied volatility quote vs. Price quote

After reading this and this, I still don't understand the reason for why options are quoted in terms of implied volatilities. My question is: can somebody give an example that shows the value/...
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Fast Monte Carlo of Local Volatility Model

I want to compute option prices via a Monte Carlo simulation. The model implemented is a Markov process, following the SDE : d X_t = alpha * dt + beta^(1/2) * d W_t ...
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Normal vs Log normal implied volatility

I am referring to an earlier discussion at How do we know if the volatility which is quoted in market is Normal (Bachelier model) or log normal (Black 76)? For the short rate case, is there any ...
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Preferred stock volatility model [closed]

If I want to forecast stock volatility, what would be the best GARCH model and why? (ARCH, GARCH-M, IGARCH, EGARCH, TARCH etc)
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Empirical equivalent for implied vol

Implied volatility is supposed to show volatility of the underlying over next k days where k - maturity of the option. Say our stock price is $S_t$ and percentage return is $r_t$. Then which empirical ...
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Why a model like GARCH is only good for daily volatility and not for intraday volatilities?

I´m currently looking to implement an intraday volatility model and I´m new at the quant world and I learned how superior is GARCH family is for daily volatilities, but in the research stage I found ...
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Python model for "Exploiting earnings volatility by Brian Johnson"

Brian Johnson has written great book on Exploiting Earnings Volatility. He explains how to use his novel approach to 1) solve for the expected level of earnings volatility implicitly priced in an ...
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1answer
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How are the call and put slopes in the SVI-JW parametrization derived?

In the SVI-JW parametrization, we have $$ w(k; a, b, \rho, m, \sigma) = a + b \left [ \rho(k-m) + \sqrt{(k-m)^{2} + \sigma^{2}} \right ] $$ Which gives us $$ \begin{align*} \sigma_{BS}(k) &= \frac{...
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VIX vs historical volatility

I'm relatively new to this field and would like to ask a couple of questions. I'm doing some analysis and I would like to compare/plot VIX vs historical volatility of SPX. I have daily VIX and SPX ...
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Historical volatility on bloomberg API

Is there a way to obtain the historical volatility of a stock from the bloomberg API? I would be looking for the data in the HVT table. Actually 3-months historical volatility from now would be enough....
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855 views

Is volatility for the next day forecastable? To any extent?

In a more general way: is there 1) a methodological approach to quantify the correctness of a model that produces a probability distribution for the, say, S&P 500 index return for the next ...
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transforming variables

I am would like to create a regression model with different variables however before using these variables in my regression model I would like to transform the variable in order to make it more ...
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1answer
186 views

How to get exposure to realised volatility while being vega neutral?

Let's say I am predicting the realised volatility of a stock index. I am buying or selling straddles based on whether the predicted vol is higher or lower than the implied ATM volatility for the ...
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garch(1,1) Annualised Volitility with python

I am trying to calculate the annualized Volatility of given returns for a stock with Garch(1,1) on python using a code I found online. The value I should be getting is around 27, but the value I am ...
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Premium Currency and Volatility

Does the volatility of a Currency Pair depend on the currency in which the premium is paid? For example- will the Volatility of USDJPY change if the premium is paid in USD instead of JPY. Is there any ...
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1answer
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Trading butterfly a long vol or short vol [closed]

Sorry for what could be a naive question. When is the right time to trade a butterfly i.e. (buy 10d call and put vs sell atm all notional flat) is it when implied vols are high or low (relative to ...
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Hedging predicted volatility

Q. If you predict the volatility of the stock is 10% a year from now and current price is X dollar, how do you hedge the risk? Im not sure why I am finding this so hard. How do we use options (...
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Black Scholes implied volatility [closed]

I am reading up on implied volatility and I encountered the term Black-Scholes implied volatility which I haven't heard before. What is the meaning of this term? Say I am looking at the Heston model ...
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1answer
181 views

Valuation of Variance Swap

Let say I have a Variance Swap contract which is based on daily closing prices (not the continuous variance calculation) and will last between the day interval $T_1$...
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919 views

Measuring unbiased estimator for variance with RMSE?

The root mean squared error (RMSE) is considered by some to be the best measure of how good a variance estimate is. You often see it quoted as: $RMSE=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n(\hat{\sigma_i} - \...
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Why are FX options vols quoted in 25RR and 25BF terms instead of by strike like credit options?

Credit options follow a quoting convention for the vols based on strike, which fits in neatly with the Black-Scholes framework. So why are FX options vols quoted in terms of 25-delta Risk Reversals ...
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217 views

Calculating implied volatility index

What are common methods to compute implied volatility index? One could use VIX method on other underlying. It is also easy to limit the method to 4 atm strikes. Is this a good idea though? What are ...
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1answer
81 views

forecasting hourly variance with higher resolution data available

Assume one has price data $P_{1}, P_{2}, \dots, P_{n}$ with one hour resolution and aims to forecast the variance for one hour ahead return. The first approach to try is ARCH or GARCH models. There ...
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How many options would be required to dynamically replicate the VIX nowadays?

The VIX is a portfolio of OTM options on the SPX with non-zero quotes. From CBOE white-paper: Only SPX options quoted with non-zero bid prices are used in the VIX Index calculation. [...] As ...
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1answer
132 views

Optimal bandwidth for Realized Kernel

If I want to estimate Realized Kernel for 1 min bins, is there a way to compute the optimal bandwidth? In the reference paper: Realised Kernels in Practice: Trades and Quotes (Ole Barndoff-Nielsen et ...
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1answer
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Calibrating Heston model parameters using the Active-set method and Levenberg–Marquardt

Background: We're estimating the parameters of the Heston model from current market data of options. This is to be implemented using the active-set method (see section 16.5 here) and the Levenberg-...
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VARX DCC GARCH in R for volatility spillover

I have 5 series for which I want to analyze volatility spillover (to and from the series) via VARX DCC GARCH for both dynamic and comtemporaneous effect. Moreover, I would like to analyze seasonal ...
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738 views

Pricing VIX Futures

In a 2006 paper Zhang and Zhu propose a model for VIX and VIX Futures based on Heston. I am struggling in understanding how they get equation 6 and 8 (where they define the parameters). Can anyone ...
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Volatility forecast on SPX option expiration day

I am looking for methods and papers on forecasting SPX option at-the-money implied volatility or realized volatility within its expiration day. What are some stylized facts and forecasting methods?
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Interpretation of Volatility of Volatility (VVIX)

Recently I came across the VVIX index (also known as VIX of VIX), which represents the 30 day implied (expected) Volatility of the VIX Index. I studied CBOE's Whitepaper for the VIX, which explains ...
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Easiest possible way to backtest a semi dynamic options strategy

I have a few options strategies Id like to backtest and I have some familiarity with Python. In particular Id like to backtest a "semi-dynamic" long vol. strategy putting on $0$ cost ...
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1answer
259 views

Modelling VWAP Slippage with HFT data

I heard that VWAP slippage (relative difference between the VWAP and the initial mid-price, $\varepsilon \ . \ \frac{P_{VWAP}-P_{arrival}}{P_{arrival}}$ with $\varepsilon = +1 \ or \ -1 $ the trade ...
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Black Volatility using SABR model

As per the Wikipedia, the SABR model looks like below - $dF_t = \sigma_t \left(F_t\right)^{\beta} dW_t$ $d \sigma_t = \alpha \sigma_t d Z_t$ I have 3 questions - ...
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What are the components of VXN?

What are the exact components of VXN -- the volatility index for NASDAQ-100? The CBOE page links to the document for VIX, which clarifies the exact set of front-month near-the-money SPX options used ...
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1answer
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LIBOR market model with stochastic volatility

I have read that there are 3 types of pricing models: local volatility, stochastic volatility and stochastic-local volatility models (LSV). I am now looking at interest rates exotics pricing models ...
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1answer
850 views

Probability of exercise in the Black-Scholes Model

What's the intuition behind the fact that the limit of $\mathcal{N}(d_2)$, i.e. the (risk-neutral) probability of exercise, in the Black-Scholes Model tends to $0$ when the volatility tends to ...
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What is volatility trading? [closed]

I have heard that there are ways that one can trade volatility with options. What option strategies can be used to do so? Are the other ways to trade volatility besides with options? If so, what ...

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