Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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174 views

Simulation of a DCC-GARCH

I want to simulate some exchange rates with a DCC GARCH. I know the package rmgarch but I want to code the simulation my self. The following are the main equations ...
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466 views

Why is the volatility smile so important

This might seem like a dumb question. When using a volatility model, stochastic for example, we try to calibrate it so that it fits the implied volatility smile given by the market, but why is this ...
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108 views

Modelling VIX futures backwardation

I have VIX futures trading algorithm and would like to perform Monte-Carlo simulation of VIX and understand how my algorithm performs on each simulation. In this case, not only VIX should be modeled, ...
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1answer
213 views

Estimating implied volatility of an index component with no vanilla options market

There are liquid vanilla options trading on an index of 20 equity components. The question is how to price an option on one of the index components, knowing that there are no options trading on that ...
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1answer
58 views

Literature on quoting vol surfaces in the absence of listed option prices [duplicate]

What are some of the modern methods used to price equity volatilities "the most accurately possible" when there are very few listed derivative prices available or even none at all? Do the pricers in ...
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597 views

Vol swaps Vol of vol

I an quite unfamiliar with those products and would like to understand why they require a vol of vol model for pricing. The variance swap is replicated (assuming no cash dividends) with a delta hedged ...
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2answers
127 views

Can I use implied volatility of stocks to predict the next days or weeks top 10 gainers and losers?

Is it true if I said that the stocks with the highest implied volatility for its options with just one day to expiration today will inadvertently be the stocks with the largest price movements on the ...
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1answer
124 views

Does the price of an asset need to be constant in order for its volatility to be zero? [closed]

What are the conditions for the volatility of an asset to be zero? In my opinion, the only condition is that the return on the asset needs to be constant. On the web, some people imply that the ...
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2answers
275 views

How should I convert FX Volatility Surface from one base currency to another?

This might be a very simple question but I wanted to understand how to convert FX volatility surface points which are quoted in one base currency to another currency? Eg I have fx vol quoted in EUR ...
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59 views

volatility for multiple time series

I have time series data for a total of 4 stocks and want to analyze the volatility of those. Moreover I want to demonstrate that they have the same volatility. As a response variable I would use log ...
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89 views

Autocall Calibration

I'm trying to price autocalls. In theory my pricing method is ok (I followed Bouzoubaa's book procedure) but I'm not sure I read anything on calibration of autocalls. Basically my question is what ...
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100 views

Dynamically adjusting the size of a Constant Range Bar (on an intraday fx chart)

Constant Range Bars (CRB) is a type of candlestick charting method that does not draw a new candle every unit of time (like every 1/5/15/30 minutes), but every time the range (high-low) of the ...
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189 views

How do you factor in skew when assessing implied volatility for a non-atm option?

If you think volatility is too cheap, how do you decide if an ATM call or an upside call (which trades at lower vol because of skew) is better? Let's say you have a $100 stock. You think the stock ...
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611 views

Why is there greater demand for OTM and ITM options than for ATM options?

I´m currently writing a project on volatility trading and dynamics. The literature often states higher demand for OTM (out-of-the-money) and ITM (in-the-money) compared to ATM (at-the-money) options ...
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1answer
101 views

SPX Convexity Spread

In this report on volatility from BNP Paribas, https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/r/Volatility_Express_20171128.pdf?t=BG3REXwMP3NZJRN7wY5Vt&stream=true it states on Page 10 that the SPX ...
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DCCfit speed up formula

I am estimating the covariance matrix by using GARCH DCC model with function dccfit from package rmgarch. My code is something like: library(rugarch) library(rmgarch) ...
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1answer
274 views

SVI Zeliade Vol Surface Calibration

Have a question about SVI Zeliade Implementation (pdf, overview). The paper suggested to do 2 rounds of optimization, first for $\{a,b,\rho\}$ and 2nd for $\{m,\sigma\}$. Does anyone know if I can ...
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1answer
2k views

Which volatility as input in Black Scholes formula?

I am trying to price an option on an Index using Black Scholes formula. I estimated the daily volatility $\sigma_{day}$. My question is should I use an annual volatility based on the business days of ...
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74 views

Mix a Forward Delta Premium Adjusted and a Forward Delta to construct the volatility surface

I have two brokers who give me delta strategies for USD-COP, but one of them gives me the issue with forward delta, the another one is premium adjusted. Besides, how can I mix them for construct a ...
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1answer
155 views

Can someone explain the 6 alternative volatility measures?

I'm reading this: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/files/a_estimation_of_security_price.pdf and am a bit confused as to why the "classical equation" on page 3 does not divide by n-1 nor use the ...
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1answer
2k views

What is the importance of alpha, beta, rho in the SABR volatility model?

I just read that SABR model is a stochastic volatility model, which attempts to capture the volatility smile in derivatives markets. The name stands for "stochastic alpha, beta, rho", referring to the ...
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471 views

How did the SVXY ETF (-1x VIX) survive a 115% jump in VIX?

The SVXY ETF is a "-1x" short exposure to the VIX, rebalanced daily. Very importantly, it is an ETF, and not an ETN. As an ETF, its holdings are fully transparent and posted on the fund sponsor's ...
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1answer
306 views

Backtest with rolling volatility in R

So I'm very new in R. I want to backtest a strategy for 3 stocks SPY, EEM, AGG. With library(RiskPortfolios), I can calculate ...
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Annualzing the log of daily returns riddle

Two popular ways to measure returns are Arithmetic returns and Log returns. Let's define arithmetic (simple period) returns as: P(t) - P(t-1) / P(t-1). Let's define log return as Ln( P(t)/P(t-1) ) or ...
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139 views

Vega with SVI Gatheral bumps

How would one go about computing a vega profile of an exotic derivative where the volatility surface is modeled using Gatheral's SVI parameterization? In particular, I am thinking about bumping each ...
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1answer
128 views

Implied volatility of inverse quote

Suppose I have a quote of INR/USD and the implied vol surface is also given. Is it theoritically correct to use to same implied vol for analysis of the inverse quote, i.e. USD/INR. Correct me if I am ...
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228 views

Difference in exposure between delta hedged options, ATM straddles and delta hedged straddles

What is the difference in exposures between delta hedged options, ATM straddles and delta hedged straddles. They all seem to provide the same thing, which is exposure to volatility. What are the ...
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184 views

Monte Carlo simulation based VaR: daily vs annual parameters

I am given the initial price, annualized return, and volatility of a security. I am trying to calculate annualized VaR using Monte Carlo simulation approach. To do this I will use the following ...
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2answers
159 views

The BISAM fat-tailed volatility model vs EWMA volatility model

Came across the following marketing material where the company called BISAM (FactSet) aka FinAnalytica (?) has developed following fat-tailed volatility model: $$ r_{t} = \mu + \epsilon_{t} $$ $$ \...
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1answer
927 views

Value of Call Option as Volatility goes to Infinity

Why would the value of a call option go infinity as volatility goes to infinity? I understand how you could solve this question by taking $\sigma \rightarrow \infty$ in the solution to the black ...
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342 views

How to interpret negative asset volatility numerical results in Merton model?

I am currently working on my thesis where I discuss the Merton default probability model. I have a huge sample of US firms for the period 1990-2010. I use both numerical and complex iterative approach ...
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79 views

Which stats are the best predictors of model sucess in real time? [closed]

What are the best predictors of real time model success in quantitative trading, i.e. # of transactions, length of backtest, StdDev, Skewness, Excess Kurtosis etc and what are the numerical values of ...
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1answer
547 views

Volatility Forecasting of VIX

Background: As we know, volatility in the long run is mean reverting. Given that volatility is mean reverting, when volatility is low, it tends to go up. When it is high and going down, it tends to ...
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1answer
167 views

Proof for ATM delta with Local col

I am looking at a time-homogeneous local volatility model where ATM implied volatility equals ATM local volatility: $\sigma_{imp}(S_0)=\sigma_{local}(S_0)$ ATM IV Skew = half of LV slope In general $\...
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1answer
528 views

MTM Hedging Performance of Vanna-Volga

I was wondering how well Vanna-Volga (VV) Implied Vols "perform". So I experimented with the following option parameters $$S_0=100,\ K=92,\ r=0.03,\ q=0.01,\ T=2$$ and VV parameters $$K_1,K_2,K_3=...
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Pricing and hedging OTC vanilla options

Most OTC option textbooks are about exotic options. I'm curious how sell-side price and hedge OTC vanilla options e.g. European option. What models do they use? How to forecast volatility (using GARCH?...
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1answer
435 views

talib.ATR or other ATR calculation

I have my data stored in df1 with the columns: Date Time Open High Low Close Vol OI I want to calculate the 20 period ATR from ...
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87 views

Calibrating Heston paremeters based on market data for Implied Vol for Call options

Several questions have been asked in here regarding calibration in Heston yet I have not found what I have been looking for, so I will ask: I am looking at a Heston model: $$dS_t=\lambda \sqrt{v_t}...
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1answer
531 views

SSR definition in Bergomi in relation to sticky strike and sticky delta

In Bergomi [Stochastic Vol Modelling] (Sec. 2.5.2), in the section on surface dynamics, the following definition of the "Skew Stickiness Ratio" (SSR) is made: $$ SSR = \dfrac{1}{\mathcal{S}_T}\frac{d\...
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383 views

Why does the price of a derivative not depend on the derivative with which you hedge volatility risk?

I'm trying to derive the valuation equation under a general stochastic volatility model. What one can read in the literature is the following reasoning: One considers a replicating self-financing ...
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1answer
99 views

Volatility of a leveraged CFD portfolio

I want to calculate the portfolio volatility (as a weighted average of the products) and the portfolio consists of CFD contracts with multipliers ranging from 10 to 50 depending on the underlying ...
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1answer
90 views

Comparing volatility of a specific period between days

I have 1 minute trade data for a particular stock and was wondering how I can compare the volatility of a particular period (08:00 - 09:00 for example) between days. I have data for 100 days and want ...
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1answer
239 views

Manipulation of VIX

Having finished my reading on CBOE's method of calculating the VIX on out of the money call and put options written on S&P 500,I have a thought about the ability of market making firms to ...
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1answer
288 views

On a FX volatility smile, Is a-delta put volatility equal to (1-a)-delta call volatility?

On a FX volatility smile in terms of delta, If I want 95-delta put vol, Is this volatility equal to a 5-delta call vol, and viceversa? Thanks.
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1answer
222 views

Deriving Delta Hedge error in the B-S setup (part 2)

In this paper paper page 16-19 by Davis and this discussion derivation of the hedging error in a black scholes setup, the derivation of the delta hedging error in the Black Scholes model is discussed. ...
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1answer
766 views

Local Volatility implementation

The Dupire equation is well-known and mentioned in thousands of articles. Although I could not find a lot of documentation about a consistent and proper way of implementing the formula (The difficulty ...
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122 views

Data on Options on US-Treasury Futes

I am working on an assignment on the Implied Volatility Surface for the options on US-Treasury futures (ZB, ZN, ZF, etc.). I need data on bid and ask, Imp. Vol, Price of underlying etc. Do you know a ...
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972 views

Can VIX be interpreted as a proxy for instantaneous volatility?

Bakshi et al., (2006) Estimation of continuous-time models with an application to equity volatility dynamics (Table 2) estimate the following Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model for market variance, $\sigma^2_t$:...
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1k views

What is the difference between squared returns and variance?

I am trying to calculate 1-day ahead volatility forecasts using the exponentially weighted moving average, however I am unsure on how to read the formula provided within Risk-Metrics Technical ...
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321 views

Calculating realized volatility of high-frequency data

I am wondering how to calculate the realized volatility. Sources such as say that the realized volatility is the sum of squared log returns sampled at a given frequency. So using 30 minute frequency ...