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Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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1answer
459 views

Analytical Solution for Heston Model

What is the rationale of equation 7 in this paper? Could you please provide a step-by-step demonstration of this equality?
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1answer
520 views

Realized volatility forecast vs Implied volatility

I have forecasts of realized volatility, as well as implied volatility for individual traded options of the S&P500. I want to simulate a simple trading strategy; that is, buy signal=1 if ...
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1answer
241 views

Daily idiosyncratic volatility?

I have a long daily times series of individual stocks and would like to obtain daily idiosyncratic volatility (keeping the same frequency). Apparently, the widely used methodology of Ang 2006 would ...
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0answers
496 views

Barra covariance matrix construction

I am trying to replicate the covariance matrix used by Barra risk models. All Barra models have half life parameters for volatilities and correlations (e.g. if the half life for volatlity is 90 days, ...
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0answers
134 views

Estimating daily volatility of unevenly/irregularly spaced time series data

Say I have time-series data that is unevenly spaced, with anything between 4-50 hours of spacing in between. The data comes from a trading account history, which has captured the balance of the ...
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2answers
95 views

Procedures to follow when VaR model fails backtest

I was wondering what the correct procedure is to follow when a VaR model fails a backtest (either conditional coverage and/or independence tests)? Assuming I am restricted to using a historical VaR ...
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0answers
55 views

target correlation for portfolio

Given a long / short equity portfolio, I want to have some net long exposure. My portfolio volatility is fixed to a target, so in trying to have a certain beta to the market, the only thing I can ...
5
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1answer
467 views

Comparing historical to implied volatility

As title states, I am trying to compare historical to implied volatility of a stock. I approximate the single implied volatility (30 days forward) of the stock by first finding 2 series that ...
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2answers
128 views

Volatility Index for Industries

The VIX index is based on the S&P, I am wondering the feasibility of creating a VIX index for each of the S&P 500 Industries? Would this even be possible?
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2answers
138 views

Volatility clustering and Behavioral Finance, possible explanation

Currently studying about time series modelling of financial data and faced the known GARCH$(p,q)$ model for modelling volatility. We observe that big changes are followed by large changes and vice ...
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0answers
208 views

How accurate are Black-Scholes estimates of Vega, Volga, Vanna

Wikipedia provides analytical formulas for calculating Greeks. I can get Delta, Gamma, Theta all from Bloomberg. I need Vega, Volga, Vanna for my research. Should I use these analytical formulas for ...
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1answer
4k views

Estimating the historical drift and volatility

I want to forecast prices $S(t)$ of some asset based on historical daily values. I want to use the geometric Brownian motion given by an SDE: $$dS=\mu S t + \sigma S dB,$$ where $B$ is a Brownian ...
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2answers
106 views

How is forecasting volatility useful? [closed]

How is volatility useful - from a purely profiteering perspective? If a quant has good in sample volatility forecasts what can they do with this information? How are options and futures useful? What ...
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2answers
3k views

Price volatility and yield volatility

This question is a bit confused, but please bear with me. Now and then I see people use the terminology "price volatility" and "yield volatility" in connection with bond options. I understand the ...
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1answer
349 views

Volatility of stocks small cap vs large cap

I read that small cap stocks are more volatile than large cap stocks. Now I am looking for sources (e.g research papers or similiar) with empirical evidence for this proposition but I can't find any (...
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0answers
200 views

Forward implied vol vs Instantaneous vol

In the Discrete Stochastic Implied Volatility Model which is from the standard Heston Model, the model shows the evolution of forward implied volatilities with time. I thought forward implied ...
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0answers
84 views

Why do we require a continuous volatility calibration while pricing Options [closed]

On pricing Options the volatility surface is represented by a mathematical model (with parameters). What does it mean to calibrate the volatility surface How often has the volatility surface to be ...
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2answers
291 views

Why do we need to calibrate vega?

I was going through some paid video on options. The tutor in the video asked the following question: Person $A$ has the following portfolio at the start of April Portfolio of options with vega $20,...
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1answer
155 views

Finding Equity Volatility for the Standard Merton Model of Corporate Debt

I am working on a project studying historical accuracy of the standard Merton Model, but am struggling to follow the required inputs. I seem to read conflicting definitions of the information I need. ...
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0answers
122 views

Can prediction of realized volatility for next day improve delta hedging (gamma scalping)?

Im quite confused. As I understand from standard delta PNL of option + underlying position, pnl is equals to difference between realized and implied vol weighted by gamma. However, as I understood, ...
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1answer
668 views

Interpreting and scaling of Realized Variance with sample data

I have some question about realized variance(RV) and I have some sample prices below to work with. You can run the R code below to build a vector of log returns. Three are 78 5-minute buckets in a ...
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1answer
447 views

Are there methods of calculating Implied Volatility in the stock market, other than Black-Scholes?

(I've gone through many questions/posts on quant StackExchange and only find responses about Black-Scholes)
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1answer
237 views

Finding parameters of a function for optimal market making with real data

I am reading this paper and trying to apply it with real data to do some simulations. I will use realtime order book & market order data that I will receive from the exchange. This is a sample ...
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3answers
1k views

Why is volatility said to be persistent?

Persistence in volatility of stock returns is one of the common 'stylized facts' when it comes to analyzing time series. However, I am wondering for theoretical arguments why (estimated) volatility ...
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1answer
703 views

FX Delta Volatility

I am looking at a Bloomberg FX vol surface quoted in 10 and 25 delta BF and RR. I know how to convert the RR and BF vols int 10D and 25D call and put vols, but I can't seem to imply a strike price ...
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0answers
1k views

Calculating weekly portfolio returns for portfolios sorted by volatility

I am having some issues with finding the right code in STATA for sorting the data into portfolios by historical volatility (standard deviation) of returns and then calculating portfolio returns and ...
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1answer
267 views

beginner portfolio statistics - annualized volatility of multi-asset portfolio

Sorry for the dumb question, but I wanted to make sure my understanding of what I read and compiled was correct! I am trying to calculate the variance-covariance matrix, and annualized volatility of a ...
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0answers
333 views

Derivation of the Pnl of a Delta Hedged Straddle and Risk Reversal

In the link below, in the text it states the following equations: Delta-hedged straddle P&L = Volatility Risk-premium ×| Straddle Vega | and Delta-hedged risk-reversal P&L: ...
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1answer
766 views

Calculate Idiosyncratic Risk?

I have basic finance background but I am trying to calculate idiosyncratic risk as measure for firm risk in my CEO gender research. I have found the following on Alpha architect but I am unsure of ...
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0answers
46 views

Does it make sense to calculate an option price in future (at t+1)?

Often I ask myself whether it makes sense to calculate the price of a Call at t+1 supposing for example that underlying asset does no move i.e. $S_{t+1} = S_{t}$ ...
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0answers
26 views

Identifying primary share class of U.S. firms and deleting excess observations

I have a fairly large dataset of CRSP firms with their daily closing prices from 2006 till 2017. I need to filter the data so that I have one daily observation per unique firm. I've identified the ...
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1answer
167 views

Drift of Local Volatility Model - Dupire

i understand that the local volatility function can be computed from the implied volatility surface.(i.e there is no calibration to option prices, we just need the full implied volatility surface only)...
2
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1answer
231 views

Choosing the Correct Periods for Yang-Zhang Volatility

I am implementing the formula for YZ Volatility using this link. I am testing it on hourly Forex charts and I'm getting some strange numbers. Taking the 14 day YZ volatility using ...
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2answers
2k views

Mid-curve swaption

I would like to know how the mid-curve swaption could inform us about forward volatility. In my understanding it is a swaption on a forward starting swap. Let us say the midcurve swaption expires ...
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1answer
68 views

Options volatility margin

A basic question. When traders structure a product in which they are long an option, how is the volatility surface shifted to take into account a margin ? Is it a multiplicative coefficient, say 95% ...
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1answer
49 views

Can GARCH volatility simulations generally be applied to return-modelling models?

This may be a naive question, but I still hope some discussion can elucidate a (so far) totally nebulous point for me. I've recently learned that GARCH models can give one simulations of ...
3
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0answers
185 views

Simulation of a DCC-GARCH

I want to simulate some exchange rates with a DCC GARCH. I know the package rmgarch but I want to code the simulation my self. The following are the main equations ...
5
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2answers
491 views

Why is the volatility smile so important

This might seem like a dumb question. When using a volatility model, stochastic for example, we try to calibrate it so that it fits the implied volatility smile given by the market, but why is this ...
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0answers
112 views

Modelling VIX futures backwardation

I have VIX futures trading algorithm and would like to perform Monte-Carlo simulation of VIX and understand how my algorithm performs on each simulation. In this case, not only VIX should be modeled, ...
3
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1answer
225 views

Estimating implied volatility of an index component with no vanilla options market

There are liquid vanilla options trading on an index of 20 equity components. The question is how to price an option on one of the index components, knowing that there are no options trading on that ...
2
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1answer
63 views

Literature on quoting vol surfaces in the absence of listed option prices [duplicate]

What are some of the modern methods used to price equity volatilities "the most accurately possible" when there are very few listed derivative prices available or even none at all? Do the pricers in ...
5
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2answers
653 views

Vol swaps Vol of vol

I an quite unfamiliar with those products and would like to understand why they require a vol of vol model for pricing. The variance swap is replicated (assuming no cash dividends) with a delta hedged ...
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2answers
128 views

Can I use implied volatility of stocks to predict the next days or weeks top 10 gainers and losers?

Is it true if I said that the stocks with the highest implied volatility for its options with just one day to expiration today will inadvertently be the stocks with the largest price movements on the ...
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1answer
124 views

Does the price of an asset need to be constant in order for its volatility to be zero? [closed]

What are the conditions for the volatility of an asset to be zero? In my opinion, the only condition is that the return on the asset needs to be constant. On the web, some people imply that the ...
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2answers
326 views

How should I convert FX Volatility Surface from one base currency to another?

This might be a very simple question but I wanted to understand how to convert FX volatility surface points which are quoted in one base currency to another currency? Eg I have fx vol quoted in EUR ...
2
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0answers
61 views

volatility for multiple time series

I have time series data for a total of 4 stocks and want to analyze the volatility of those. Moreover I want to demonstrate that they have the same volatility. As a response variable I would use log ...
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0answers
91 views

Autocall Calibration

I'm trying to price autocalls. In theory my pricing method is ok (I followed Bouzoubaa's book procedure) but I'm not sure I read anything on calibration of autocalls. Basically my question is what ...
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0answers
111 views

Dynamically adjusting the size of a Constant Range Bar (on an intraday fx chart)

Constant Range Bars (CRB) is a type of candlestick charting method that does not draw a new candle every unit of time (like every 1/5/15/30 minutes), but every time the range (high-low) of the ...
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2answers
215 views

How do you factor in skew when assessing implied volatility for a non-atm option?

If you think volatility is too cheap, how do you decide if an ATM call or an upside call (which trades at lower vol because of skew) is better? Let's say you have a $100 stock. You think the stock ...
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2answers
645 views

Why is there greater demand for OTM and ITM options than for ATM options?

I´m currently writing a project on volatility trading and dynamics. The literature often states higher demand for OTM (out-of-the-money) and ITM (in-the-money) compared to ATM (at-the-money) options ...