Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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10
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2answers
9k views

Is the VIX more similar to a volatility swap or a variance swap?

I am reading the following paragraph on the VIX wikipedia article and I find it confusing: The VIX is calculated as the square root of the par variance swap rate for a 30-day term[clarify] ...
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2answers
2k views

How to forecast expected volatility from high-frequency equity panel data?

I'm wading through the vast sea of literature on realized volatility estimation and expected volatility forecasting (see, e.g. Realized Volatility by Andersen and Benzoni, which cites 120 other papers,...
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2answers
9k views

How to annualize intra-day volatility on minute data?

I am trying to convert minute based volatility into annualized volatility in such a way that both are comparable. $Vol_{min} * \sqrt(t)$ does not seam to get them into the same scale if I annualize ...
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4answers
12k views

Why is realized volatility typically lower than implied volatility?

A number of quantitative finance textbooks mention something along the following lines, without further explanation: A typical feature of implied volatility from stock index options is that it is ...
11
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1answer
2k views

How do you estimate the volatility of a sample when points are irregularly spaced?

I was looking again at this question which basically haunts every quant I believe, and I was thinking about the effect of these gaps when computing volatility of the series. Let's define the problem ...
18
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5answers
14k views

What is a regime switch?

I've come across the term regime switch in volatilities when reading about the modelling of interest rates but could not find a definition for a regime switch and what a regime is. Can somebody give ...
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2answers
4k views

Risk Budgets with Target Portfolio Volatility

I'm working through the implementation of a risk budgeting approach as described in the recent Roncalli paper. The idea is that the portfolio manager sets a contribution of total portfolio volatility ...
11
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1answer
855 views

Is volatility for the next day forecastable? To any extent?

In a more general way: is there 1) a methodological approach to quantify the correctness of a model that produces a probability distribution for the, say, S&P 500 index return for the next ...
14
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2answers
5k views

SPX options vs VIX futures trading

Forward volatility implied by SPX options, and that of VIX futures get out of line. If there existed VIX SQUARED futures they could easily be replicated (and arbitraged) with a strip of SPX options. ...
10
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2answers
10k views

Why FX Vanilla Options are quoted in volatility

I've been curious why vanilla options are quoted (and traded) in terms of volatility. Considering that every financial institution has its own options pricing model, volatility as an input would cause ...
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2answers
1k views

Ideas about Stochastic volatility models

I am currently working on comparing different models for modelling the volatility and then pricing vanilla options (I use option prices on real stocks in order to calibrate my models and then I ...
7
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2answers
2k views

Constructing an approximation of the S&P 500 volatility smile with publicly available data

Besides of the VIX there is another vol datum publicly available for the S&P 500: the SKEW. Do you know a procedure with which one can extrapolate other implied vols of the S&P 500 smile with ...
6
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1answer
6k views

Estimating the historical drift and volatility

I want to forecast prices $S(t)$ of some asset based on historical daily values. I want to use the geometric Brownian motion given by an SDE: $$dS=\mu S t + \sigma S dB,$$ where $B$ is a Brownian ...
3
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2answers
3k views

Why is the vega of an at the money option so insensitive to movements in volatility? I.e, why do ATM options have such little Vomma?

I've been trying to understand why at the money options have very little vomma. I was reading and came across a graph that showed vega as volatility changes and I couldn't grasp how the relationships ...
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1answer
3k views

Implied Volatility Surface - log forward moneyness

I'm reading this paper by Fengler (2005) and have came across the below snippet. context: Implied volatiltiy surface plot has 3 dimensions IV, Strike, Time to Maturity. Author replaced Strike with ...
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4answers
7k views

What is the importance of alpha, beta, rho in the SABR volatility model?

I just read that SABR model is a stochastic volatility model, which attempts to capture the volatility smile in derivatives markets. The name stands for "stochastic alpha, beta, rho", referring to the ...
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2answers
773 views

Proof of approximation formulas for implied volatilities

I am trying to calibrate a local volatility model to observed implied volatility smiles (not surfaces!, just a smile given for fixed maturity). I ran into the following approximation, and thought I ...
6
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2answers
990 views

SKEW and VIX relations?

My question is about the CBOE published index VIX and SKEW. To start with, I consider working on the variance dynamics. I calibrate the market data (such as VIX and VIX futures) into the Heston model....
5
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2answers
7k views

GJR-GARCH Model In R

Any idea how to estimate GJR-GARCH models in R? Is there any particular library like fGarch that supports such models?
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1answer
2k views

Problems with dealing with GARCH models and intra-day data

A Short question would be "Which type of model from GARCH family is most suitable for modeling 5-minute data returns ?" but I've added some story to it. A Long time ago I was preparing my thesis, one ...
6
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1answer
5k views

Probability of stock closing over a certain price

A stock has beta of 2.0 and stock specific daily volatility of 0.02. Suppose that yesterday's closing price was 100 and today the market goes up by 1%. What's the probability of today's closing price ...
6
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3answers
3k views

Which volatilities should I use for Quanto Options?

Quanto options pricing formula, as described in this paper is a function of two volatilities: one from the underlying asset and another from the exchange rate. How can I read the "right" volatilies ...
6
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2answers
5k views

How to calculate volatility on intraday data?

I have several weeks of minute-by-minute stock data (start and end prices, volume). Everything I've read so far leads me to believe there isn't a standard method for volatility, which is leaving me ...
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2answers
2k views

How to calculate the volatility matrix with multiple stocks

calculating the volatility for a single stock is straightforward. However, I'm not sure whether my approach for calculating the volatility matrix for multiple stocks is correct: I assume a log-normal ...
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1answer
102 views

Implied volatility of hypothetical options market

I am attempting to create a volatility surface for a US electricity market that has a liquid futures market but nearly non-existent options market (<5 trades per month across all strikes and ...
2
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2answers
6k views

Mid-curve swaption

I would like to know how the mid-curve swaption could inform us about forward volatility. In my understanding it is a swaption on a forward starting swap. Let us say the midcurve swaption expires ...
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3answers
643 views

Construction of VIX and VVIX

I just read the CBOE's Whitepapers for VIX and VVIX and notice that they are constructed in the same way, i.e. a range of calls and puts on the respective underlyings (S&P500 in case of VIX, and ...
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2answers
1k views

Calibrating stochastic volatility model from price history (not option prices)

For stochastic volatility models like Heston, it seems like the standard approach is to calibrate the models from option prices. This seems a bit like a chicken and an egg problem -- wouldn't we ...
5
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3answers
693 views

Uncertain volatility

Recently, I have encountered something called "uncertain volatility". Is it a popular concept in QF? Do practitioners use it nowadays? What are its pros and cons compared to e.g more familiar ...
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2answers
2k views

Expected value of Black-Scholes

(Apologies for any formatting mistakes) Within the Black Scholes model, given that you are estimating the volatility from historical data - and all other parameters assumed exact - one usually ...
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2answers
364 views

Volatility smile shows individual Put and Call IV or combination

IV is calculated per strike AND option type basis(for example WTI 50 CALL its x and WTI 50 PUT its y). The question is when its shown in "Smile" its just shown on strike basis, so does that mean lower ...
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4answers
3k views

How to avoid having negative volatility when applying Heston model?

When applying the Heston model to generate the sample volatility surface, some of the volatility value will be negative. I am just wondering what do practioners normally do with these negative value. ...
6
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1answer
827 views

What research is available on the performance of convertible bond arbitrage models?

The basic principles of convertible bond arbitrage have been clear at least since Thorp and Kassouf (1967). For those who are not familiar, the arbitrage entails purchasing a convertible bond and ...
6
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1answer
623 views

How is implied volatility derived?

How to compute Implied Volatility Calculation? The above link shows that there multiple ways to calculate implied volatility. My question is that for most of the common data sources like Bloomberg, ...
5
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1answer
222 views

Is Dupire's local volatility model path independent to recover historical option price?

Generally when we implement Dupire's local volatility model, we follow the steps below: Calculate implied volatility from given historical data Fit the implied volatility skew. So we also know the ...
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0answers
455 views

Calculating volatility of inhomogeneous time series

I am reading an article by Zumbach and Müller whose name is Operators on Inhomogeneous Time Series. This is interesting in general, but my main goal is to learn a good and efficient method to ...
3
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1answer
643 views

Backtest with rolling volatility in R

So I'm very new in R. I want to backtest a strategy for 3 stocks SPY, EEM, AGG. With library(RiskPortfolios), I can calculate ...
3
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1answer
1k views

Correct procedure for modelling GARCH for forecasting volatility of stock Index returns

I will be using Eviews and am looking to forecast volatility of stock index returns using ARCH/GARCH models. I've generated the logarithmic returns and done the unit root tests. I then proceeded to ...
3
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2answers
424 views

Distribution of Black-Scholes option price

Consider a Black-Scholes formula for option pricing on conditional interest rate $r=0$ for European call option. Let's write it as $BSCall(\sigma)$ and investigate it as a function of unknown non-...
3
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3answers
9k views

Squared and Absolute Returns

I've always wondered why do one use squared or absolute returns to determine if volatility modeling is required for the return series? We understand that there are various tests for its ...
3
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3answers
459 views

Probability of an Option maturing In-the-money vs. Volatility

How will the probability of an option ending up in the money change if the volatility of the underlying stock increases? Intuitively, I think the answer to this is that if volatility goes up the ...
2
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1answer
2k views

PRIIPs category 2 stress scenario methodology

recently new document has been provided by EU supervisors regarding the new PRIIPs KID methodology. (PRIIPs KID is 3page document about the fund/product that is being sold to clients. It has to inform ...
2
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1answer
5k views

Common Quanto adjustment

In this paper (Quanto Skew, by Jackel), on second page, the author states: a) Determine an effective volatility coeffcient $\hat \sigma$ exactly as in (2) using the forward as if the option was ...
2
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2answers
878 views

Normal vs Log normal implied volatility

I am referring to an earlier discussion at How do we know if the volatility which is quoted in market is Normal (Bachelier model) or log normal (Black 76)? For the short rate case, is there any ...
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1answer
135 views

Expected Forward Volatility vs. Different Strikes

While theoretical options prices are derived from models, such as Black-Scholes, IV and IV skew reminds us that options prices are ultimately based on supply and demand. My question is the following: ...
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1answer
517 views

Constant decreasing volatility, GARCH forecasting

I am trying to forecast the volatility using GARCH modelling in R. I fit an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, but my sigma predictions are constantly decreasing. Anybody know why? ...
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1answer
871 views

Why is the ATM vol kind of an average volatility

In this question I asked about the mathematical rationale of using the ATM vol to price quanto options. One of the reasons pointed (as an answer) was, as expected, that the ATM volatility is kind of ...
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1answer
1k views

Deriving Delta Hedge error in the B-S setup (part 2)

In this paper paper page 16-19 by Davis and this discussion derivation of the hedging error in a black scholes setup, the derivation of the delta hedging error in the Black Scholes model is discussed. ...
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2answers
5k views

Transforming log return volatility into standard return volatility

If I have a forecasted volatility of the log returns of say, 0.03, this is obviously transformed relative to the log I took of the returns. It strikes me that I should raise ...
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0answers
229 views

How would you arbitrage this?

Assume it to be true that $dS = S\mu dt + \sigma(t)S dW$ where $\sigma$(t) is known. Consider a call option with expiry $T$, currently $t = 0$. For all $t \in [0,T]$, $\sigma(t) < \sigma_{impv}$ ...