Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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286 views

Question About SVI and SSVI Tradeoff between Fitness and No-Arbitrage

I’m currently working on a project to build a local volatility model out of implied volatility data and am struggling in the selection of an appropriate method to interpolate the volatility surface. I ...
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268 views

Annualizing intraday volatility

I've been experimenting with end-of-day volatility-based stock trading strategies and I'm looking to see if it's possible to use similar strategies over shorter time frames. Given that market ...
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247 views

1 Factor Hull And White Swaption Calibration

I'm trying to calibrate a Hull and White model with constant volatility, mean reversion and theta such that the model can reproduce the initial Term Structure. I'm using this python code adapted from &...
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43 views

Entropy-implied volatility requires itself to be calculated?

\begin{align} H &= \frac{1}{2} \ln (2\pi\sigma^2) + \frac{1}{2}\\ &= \frac{1}{2} \ln (2\pi e \sigma^2) \end{align} is the analytical solution for the entropy of a Gaussian random variable, ...
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1answer
168 views

Probability of an Option maturing In-the-money vs. Volatility

How will the probability of an option ending up in the money change if the volatility of the underlying stock increases? Intuitively, I think the answer to this is that if volatility goes up the ...
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66 views

How does volatility affect an option payoff diagram? [closed]

I am a beginner to financial mathematics, and my lecturer asked me to ponder about how volatility may affect the value of an option (as a function of spot price). For example, if an option had a (...
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60 views

Close Volatility - Open-Close Volatility

Could anyone please give the detailed expression of either the close-close or open-close volatility ? Thanks
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283 views

Can we model Implied volatility using GARCH?

Can I use Implied volatility as a dependent variable in a GARCH model? I believe my IV data shows ARCH effects and hence can I use it to model volatility of the volatility? I know literature has used ...
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21 views

Availability of historical data on variance swaps [duplicate]

I want to do research on variance swaps. Where can I get/buy historical data (other than Markit)?
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Is there a relation between the so-called volatility drag and the sigma term in Black-Scholes' model? [duplicate]

The closed-form solution of Black Scholes Dynamics $dS_t=S_t(\mu dt +\sigma dW_t$) is $$S_t=S_0 e^{(\mu -\sigma ^2/2) t+\sigma dW_t}.$$ The $-\sigma^2/2$ term is quite similar to the volatility drag ...
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Relationship between risk and return for GBM and riskless bond

Suppose we have $S$, a stock following geometric Brownian motion ($dS_t = S_t (\mu dt + \sigma dZ_t)$ for $Z =$ Brownian motion) and $B$, a zero coupon bond with rate $r$, i.e. $dB_t = rB_t dt$. In ...
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Estimating constant and local volatility based on passage times

Consider a Brownian motion B_t with constant instantaneous volatility σ and zero drift where ...
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124 views

Angular bracket notation (physics)

In a few papers I have seen the following notation: $$ \langle X_t \rangle $$ Also, in Bergomi's book, at page 8, we have the following equality: $$ \biggr\langle \int_0^T e^{-rt}s^2 \frac{d^2P_{\hat{\...
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Why approximating dSigma/dS with dSigma/dK changes the ATM volatility at twice the rate?

I'm referring to the paper "Delta Hedging With a Smile", Sami Vahamaa (2004). It mentions: By approximating ∂σ/∂S with ∂σ/∂K, it is assumed that as S changes by one unit, there is a ...
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1answer
125 views

using bid ask prices to imply bid ask volatilities

Let's say i have bid / ask feed of an option prices (across strikes and expiries, calls and puts), what is the accurate way of implying out vols from these bid / asks For eg; to get the bid vol, ...
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31 views

Applying GARCH to Panel Data

I have a panel consisting of some quantity - say earnings/cash flows/or something similar. I am interested in forecasting the volatility that is inherent to that respective measure. In a single time ...
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44 views

15-min, 30-min and 60-min volatility forecasts

I have high-frequency market data (irregularly spaced nanosecond timestamps) and would like to compute the volatility forecasts of the next 15, 30 and 60 minutes. Most of the literature I looked up ...
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134 views

Is there Cornish-Fisher volatility, given that there is Cornish-Fisher Value-at-Risk?

The Cornish-Fisher expansion is used to approximate the quantile $q_\alpha$ of a return distribution in order to extend the traditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) measure $$VaR = \mu(X) + \sigma(X) q_\alpha $...
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997 views

Option Price vs. Implied Volatility

I was doing an exercise on investigating the relationship between European Call option price and its volatility. I was asked to compute $\frac{\partial^2C}{\partial \sigma^2}$ and find out the domain ...
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3answers
315 views

Implied volatility quote vs. Price quote

After reading this and this, I still don't understand the reason for why options are quoted in terms of implied volatilities. My question is: can somebody give an example that shows the value/...
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1answer
126 views

Expected Forward Volatility vs. Different Strikes

While theoretical options prices are derived from models, such as Black-Scholes, IV and IV skew reminds us that options prices are ultimately based on supply and demand. My question is the following: ...
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53 views

Should diverging valuation multiples affect beta estimate?

Suppose we experience a significant equity market crash. All equities are affected, but the drawdown disproportionately affects equities in a specific sector - for example, say the broad equity market ...
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87 views

Fast Monte Carlo of Local Volatility Model

I want to compute option prices via a Monte Carlo simulation. The model implemented is a Markov process, following the SDE : d X_t = alpha * dt + beta^(1/2) * d W_t ...
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596 views

Normal vs Log normal implied volatility

I am referring to an earlier discussion at How do we know if the volatility which is quoted in market is Normal (Bachelier model) or log normal (Black 76)? For the short rate case, is there any ...
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43 views

Preferred stock volatility model [closed]

If I want to forecast stock volatility, what would be the best GARCH model and why? (ARCH, GARCH-M, IGARCH, EGARCH, TARCH etc)
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132 views

Empirical equivalent for implied vol

Implied volatility is supposed to show volatility of the underlying over next k days where k - maturity of the option. Say our stock price is $S_t$ and percentage return is $r_t$. Then which empirical ...
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122 views

Python model for “Exploiting earnings volatility by Brian Johnson”

Brian Johnson has written great book on Exploiting Earnings Volatility. He explains how to use his novel approach to 1) solve for the expected level of earnings volatility implicitly priced in an ...
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1answer
131 views

About BDP formula on getting Volatility of stocks from Bloomberg

I have tried VOLATILITY_90D to get the VOLATILITY of stocks from Bloomberg in excel. However, I found that I cannot get the VOLATILITY of some Stocks,such as 330 HK, 3800 HK. Could anyone help me to ...
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1answer
89 views

VIX vs historical volatility

I'm relatively new to this field and would like to ask a couple of questions. I'm doing some analysis and I would like to compare/plot VIX vs historical volatility of SPX. I have daily VIX and SPX ...
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1answer
77 views

How are the call and put slopes in the SVI-JW parametrization derived?

In the SVI-JW parametrization, we have $$ w(k; a, b, \rho, m, \sigma) = a + b \left [ \rho(k-m) + \sqrt{(k-m)^{2} + \sigma^{2}} \right ] $$ Which gives us $$ \begin{align*} \sigma_{BS}(k) &= \frac{...
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114 views

comparing volatility and correlation over time

I'm trying to figure out if some emerging markets change over time. First of all I am going to check for changes in volatility. What would be a good method to do this. And do you suggest comparing ...
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1answer
188 views

GARCH model using high frequency price return

I would like to forecast variance at time length $k\delta$ based on a price (return) time series of time step length $\delta$. I will apply a GARCH(1,1) model to subsamples at time intervals length $k\...
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48 views

transforming variables

I am would like to create a regression model with different variables however before using these variables in my regression model I would like to transform the variable in order to make it more ...
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1answer
157 views

How to get exposure to realised volatility while being vega neutral?

Let's say I am predicting the realised volatility of a stock index. I am buying or selling straddles based on whether the predicted vol is higher or lower than the implied ATM volatility for the ...
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70 views

garch(1,1) Annualised Volitility with python

I am trying to calculate the annualized Volatility of given returns for a stock with Garch(1,1) on python using a code I found online. The value I should be getting is around 27, but the value I am ...
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1answer
195 views

Why a model like GARCH is only good for daily volatility and not for intraday volatilities?

I´m currently looking to implement an intraday volatility model and I´m new at the quant world and I learned how superior is GARCH family is for daily volatilities, but in the research stage I found ...
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120 views

Behavior of Vega PnL for 6 month ATM S&P500 option

I am interpolating the vol surface for 6 months maturity from price data for S&P500 options. For this vol smile I compute the ATM strike. I then assume I can buy a call option at this strike, ...
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1answer
57 views

Trading butterfly a long vol or short vol [closed]

Sorry for what could be a naive question. When is the right time to trade a butterfly i.e. (buy 10d call and put vs sell atm all notional flat) is it when implied vols are high or low (relative to ...
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1answer
75 views

Hedging predicted volatility

Q. If you predict the volatility of the stock is 10% a year from now and current price is X dollar, how do you hedge the risk? Im not sure why I am finding this so hard. How do we use options (...
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Price volatility short-term (10 seconds) forecast

Dataset: list of all realized trades (BTCUSDT) from a certain cryptoexchange with timestamps (15 days worth of data) Problem: predict the "price volatility" (standard deviation of realized ...
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Black Scholes implied volatility [closed]

I am reading up on implied volatility and I encountered the term Black-Scholes implied volatility which I haven't heard before. What is the meaning of this term? Say I am looking at the Heston model ...
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1answer
175 views

Valuation of Variance Swap

Let say I have a Variance Swap contract which is based on daily closing prices (not the continuous variance calculation) and will last between the day interval $T_1$...
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123 views

Why are FX options vols quoted in 25RR and 25BF terms instead of by strike like credit options?

Credit options follow a quoting convention for the vols based on strike, which fits in neatly with the Black-Scholes framework. So why are FX options vols quoted in terms of 25-delta Risk Reversals ...
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80 views

forecasting hourly variance with higher resolution data available

Assume one has price data $P_{1}, P_{2}, \dots, P_{n}$ with one hour resolution and aims to forecast the variance for one hour ahead return. The first approach to try is ARCH or GARCH models. There ...
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210 views

Calculating implied volatility index

What are common methods to compute implied volatility index? One could use VIX method on other underlying. It is also easy to limit the method to 4 atm strikes. Is this a good idea though? What are ...
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Volatility forecast on SPX option expiration day

I am looking for methods and papers on forecasting SPX option at-the-money implied volatility or realized volatility within its expiration day. What are some stylized facts and forecasting methods?
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122 views

Optimal bandwidth for Realized Kernel

If I want to estimate Realized Kernel for 1 min bins, is there a way to compute the optimal bandwidth? In the reference paper: Realised Kernels in Practice: Trades and Quotes (Ole Barndoff-Nielsen et ...
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Interpretation of Volatility of Volatility (VVIX)

Recently I came across the VVIX index (also known as VIX of VIX), which represents the 30 day implied (expected) Volatility of the VIX Index. I studied CBOE's Whitepaper for the VIX, which explains ...
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335 views

Black Volatility using SABR model

As per the Wikipedia, the SABR model looks like below - $dF_t = \sigma_t \left(F_t\right)^{\beta} dW_t$ $d \sigma_t = \alpha \sigma_t d Z_t$ I have 3 questions - ...

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