Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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27 views

What are the components of VXN?

What are the exact components of VXN -- the volatility index for NASDAQ-100? The CBOE page links to the document for VIX, which clarifies the exact set of front-month near-the-money SPX options used ...
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Slippage Regression over volume and volatility

I would like to run a regression of slippage over volume and volatility, but I was thinking they are correlated, and their correlation increases throughout the day (U-shape). Would this corrupt my ...
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213 views

Modelling VWAP Slippage with HFT data

I heard that VWAP slippage (relative difference between the VWAP and the initial mid-price, $\varepsilon \ . \ \frac{P_{VWAP}-P_{arrival}}{P_{arrival}}$ with $\varepsilon = +1 \ or \ -1 $ the trade ...
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341 views

Easiest possible way to backtest a semi dynamic options strategy

I have a few options strategies Id like to backtest and I have some familiarity with Python. In particular Id like to backtest a "semi-dynamic" long vol. strategy putting on $0$ cost ...
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Why is asset volatility easier to estimate than the asset mean if it contains the mean?

It is well known that the variance of asset returns, $\sigma^2$ (whose square root is volatility), is easier to estimate than the asset mean $\mu$ (also known as expected return) because the mean of ...
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151 views

Use of ugarchroll vs ugarchforecast: setting parameters

I would like to generate 21 day ahead forecast volatility with ugarchroll. I know it is similar to ugarchforecast with the exception that ugarchroll is a rolling average which considers initially the ...
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174 views

LIBOR market model with stochastic volatility

I have read that there are 3 types of pricing models: local volatility, stochastic volatility and stochastic-local volatility models (LSV). I am now looking at interest rates exotics pricing models ...
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692 views

Do the weights of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) have to sum to 1?

I am currently trying to calculate a volatility by using the EWMA model because it is said to yield better results than just using an equal weighted calculation approach. However I am a bit confused ...
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Is variance of residuals of Markov switching GARCH model regime specific?

I'm using MSGARCH package in R. By return_data/Volatility(fit.model), I get the residuals. When I calculate the standard deviation of the residuals, it turns out that it's close to 1 for all residuals....
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81 views

BEKK Garch for time-varying beta in python

I am currently trying to analyse stocks of the S&P500 for their time-varying beta using BEKK Garch in python(jupyter). Unfortunately, I can't find any good packages and the documentation for bekk ...
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52 views

Greeks and splits

Should we adjust greeks on stock splits? Let's just ask about splits instead of reverse splits. I'm also interested how answers change if we change models/assumptions. I have some contradicting ...
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135 views

Calculate annualized returns and annualized volatility from monthly returns?

I have a dataset with monthly returns (In decimals) Jan-2008, Feb-2008 .... Dec-2008, Jan-2009 .... Dec-2017 This is what I have done, ...
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How to implement an “Active Long Volatility” Strategy?

The research paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent" describes an asset allocation referred to as the "Dragon" Portfolio, which allocates 18% to "active long volatility&...
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Volatility estimation based on a 60 days range

In Hutchinson et al: A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities Via Learning Network (1994) paper (link), to estimate $\sigma$ for the Black-Scholes formula, it says (p. 881)...
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131 views

What is volatility trading? [closed]

I have heard that there are ways that one can trade volatility with options. What option strategies can be used to do so? Are the other ways to trade volatility besides with options? If so, what ...
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172 views

Premium Currency and Volatility

Does the volatility of a Currency Pair depend on the currency in which the premium is paid? For example- will the Volatility of USDJPY change if the premium is paid in USD instead of JPY. Is there any ...
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how to interpret the results of a GARCH model fit R/python

I have got the following output from a gjrGARCH model, and I need help to interpret it in order to decide whether it is already a good model and proceed with the forecast. ...
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242 views

What's the difference between ATM Vol vs ATMF Vol?

May I ask what's the difference between At-the-money volatility vs At-the-money foward Vol?
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Price of Call & Put Spreads as Volatility Tends to Infinity in Bachelier Model

In the standard Black Scholes model, as we take volatility to infinity, the price of call spreads goes to zero and the price of put spreads goes to the difference in strikes. I ran a simulation using ...
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217 views

Implied Volatility from Heston Model

When one construct surface for Implied volatilities using Heston model from different Strike prices and Maturities, we get a surface where long dated volatilities ...
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217 views

Volatility differences

To discover trading prices of high volatility, I measure the standard deviation of two currency pairs using a simple example: ...
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67 views

how to model the volatility of the currency exchange rate

I want to estimate/predict the volatility of the currency exchange rate. I have checked in literature a few models from very simple PPP to econometric factor model forecasting, to GARCH (for ...
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1answer
154 views

Modelling Geometric Browian Motion price model with stochastic volatility

I'd like to generate scenarios (simulate several paths of the process) for several stocks using multinomial Geometric Brownian Motion under Stochastic volatility assumption. I'm going to use it in my ...
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Volatility of multimodal distribution of returns

Take $x_1, x_2, \ldots, x_T$ to be the price of a stock, indexed by $t=1, 2, \ldots, T$. Define rate of return at time $t>W$ for a window size of $W$ to be $$r_t = \frac{x_t - x_{t-W}}{x_{t-W}}$$ ...
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137 views

VIX vs S&P: Drift in the hedging residual?

I am looking at the daily returns of the VIX index (dVIX ) and the daily returns of the S&P 500 (dS). I am running a linear regression (using 0 intercept) and get a regression slope of -1.4, i.e. ...
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108 views

Vasicek model - Bond price and volatility

Why does the bond price under the Vasicek model increase as the rate volatility increases? What is the intuition behind this?
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Modelling volatility for higher frequency data

I'm doing some academic work on volatility forecasting. I've got 1-minute bar data. It is not clear to me what model is best suited for forecasting volatility when higher frequency data is available. ...
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Non-Linear Time-Dependent Volatility

My data consist of monthly electricity futures contracts. Unlike other commodities, electricity is delivered throughout a month (rather than on a specific date), which means that, as the active month ...
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Garch models - are they useful for hedging? If so how?

I understand that Garch models are useful to predict volatility. But are they useful for hedging in practice? If I want to hedge volatility, why shouldn't I just use a Variance Swap? In other words, ...
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60 views

Estimate of basket volatility

We are looking for a simple way to calculate an approximation of the basket volatility for a set of baskets so that we can estimate which basket might produce the highest coupon in a standard ...
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29 views

Are there noticeable jumps in index options price due to systematic hedging of structured products close to big expiry dates?

I am looking at investigating factors that will cause jumps in index options prices close to big expiries in the name. I imagine systematic rebalancing of structured products will have a large impact ...
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64 views

The relationship between volatility of underlying asset, leverage and the volatility of the derivative

If I want to lower the risk of the portfolio then the trivial thing to do is change from higher volatility to lower for a better Sharpe ratio. It already lists the volatility for the stocks but the ...
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71 views

Dispersion Trading with a 2 component index

I have a dispersion question I need help with...An index SPY has only 2 components - AAPL and AMZN. We are given the implied volatility of SPY and AAPL as well as the correlation between the 2 assets. ...
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330 views

Historical volatility - Black Scholes

How do you best incorporate the weekends in the calculation of the Black Scholes historical volatility? (Of course historical volatility serves as approximation, if the market price of the options is ...
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120 views

Why my delta position is increasing with increase in spot?

I am trying to take position in future as per the delta position of short put. My strike is 13794 for short put option, spot 10305.3 and volatility is 20.153 then I am getting 5890 position to buy and ...
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101 views

Implied volatility of hypothetical options market

I am attempting to create a volatility surface for a US electricity market that has a liquid futures market but nearly non-existent options market (<5 trades per month across all strikes and ...
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113 views

Value Option with Forward Volatilities

That is probably a rather simple question but I got confused and would be very thankful for help. Imagine we are in 2015 and have an option that expires in either 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021. ...
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Historical VIX term structure data

I see that there is a CBOE page for collecting individual moments of term structure data, however, I'm wondering if anyone knows how to access historical data in bulk. Here's the CBOE page: http://...
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111 views

Annualised returns and volatility for 3 month data

I have a portofolio with 30 indexes and I want to calculate the annulised returns and volatility because I want to compare it with another portofolio with different number of indexes (but same time ...
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77 views

Ratios or combinations of risk measures

In finance, alternative risk measures such as value-at-risk (VaR) and GARCH are introduced as replacements to standard deviation volatility. Is there any application or value where several risk ...
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How do we compute FX volatility for any given FX strike and time to maturity?

I want to implement a function which is passed two inputs: a strike and a time to maturity (which can be arbitrary within a specified range) and returns an FX volatility for this strike and maturity ...
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326 views

Implied Volatility, annualized quantity ? And Total Implied volatility

so Implied Volatility is computed by equalizing the value of the call option given by the black and scholes model with the one observed. Then, by inversing $C_{BS}$, one gets "$\sigma_{IMP}$"...
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116 views

Implication of forward-rate dynamics when the short-rate follows a normal process

In the section 3.2.3 of the second edition of "Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice" by Brigo and Mercurio, the forward-rate dynamics implied by the CIR model is derived as follow: The ...
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247 views

Annualized Volatility with simple returns

I am aware of the way to annualize a volatility using log returns (stdev(daily log returns) * sqrt(252)). But how can I do the same if I have a time series of simple returns (price_t - price _t-1) / ...
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465 views

How to obtain one-step ahead forecast in Python based on GARCH?

I am trying to produce one-step ahead forecast using GARCH in Python using a fixed windows method. I ultimately want to put the code below in a for loop, but this code snippet does not perform as I ...
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192 views

What is the difference between parametric and non-parametric models?

I'm reading about volatility modelling and I came across the concept of parametric and non-parametric models. For example, GARCH is a parametric model and Realized Volatility is a non-parametric model....
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Literature on realized volatility and sampling frequency?

I was looking for some papers that explicitly show how realized volatility changes as we change the sampling frequency. For example, comparing the annualized volatility estimated from daily data is ...
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227 views

GARCH(1,1) forecast plot in R with training data

I've fit a GARCH(1,1) model in R and would like to create a plot similar to the one in this question: Is this the correct way to forecast stock price volatility using GARCH Could someone direct me to ...
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298 views

Where can I find a Python module for Stock volatility estimators using Yang Zhang method?

Does anyone know of a Python library that includes the calculation of historical stock volatility using the Yang Zhang estimator? I have tried and failed to find one but would expect this to have been ...
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177 views

Stochastic Volatility Models - are they complete markets?

I'm reading about stochastic volatility models - the ones which resulted after Wiggins proposed in 1986/7 that $\sigma$ in Black-Scholes should be a stochastic process rather than a constant. In ...

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