# Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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It's written in a book by Giles Hewitt : " The bid-offer spread quoted on a Strangle in volatility terms will usually be wider than the ATM spread to the same maturity because strikes away from the ...
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### Portfolio Systematic Risk, Breaking it down into factor % contributions

I have a portfolio (p) of N equities, with let's say weights vector (m) at the start of the calculation period. Each equity has its own set of factors (like corresponding country, industry index, etc.)...
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### FX Smile Curve Extrapolation

How a smooth smile curve is generated from 5 smile points : 10D RR, 25D RR, 10D SM, 25D SM and ATM? What are the commonly used extrapolation and interpolation techniques? I have seen people ...
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### Realized vol/var log-normal approximation

It is not clear to me what is a better approximation (based on empirical evidence or otherwise), a log-normal approximation for realized volatility or log-normal approximation for realized variance? ...
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### Local volatility and Stochastic Volatility

Please help me understand similarity and differences between local volatility and Stochastic Volatility both intuitively and mathematically.
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### How To Calculate The Implied One Day Expected Return For Earnings

I am trying to figure out how to calculate the one day expected return given I have the event volatility. In his book Trading Volatility, Correlation, Term Structure and Skew, Collin Bennet (link) ...
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### relationship between option vol and option payoff

Has anyone thought of the relationship between the option vol and distribution of option payoff? for example, I have 1000 paths of simulated underlying prices, keeping all inputs the same but only ...
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### Different definitions of volatility (simple question)

I have a basic question on volatility that I wanted some clarification on. In finance books (such as Hull), there's a few different ways volatility is defined. One of them is the standard deviation ...
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### Price moneyness vs spread moneyness for credit index options (CDX HY)

Is spread moneyness equivalent to price moneyness for volatility surfaces of CDX HY? In other words, is the ISDA converter a linear transformation? I have market data that I need to convert to input ...
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Suppose I am long spread option with underlying : rate A - rate B. The vega on the option would be positive. But if I want to compute the option vega with respect to individual rates, can I use the ...
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### Swaption pricing and strategies

I am looking for resources (books, papers, websites, etc.) that deal with Vanilla and Exotic swaptions from a more advanced and quantitative perspective. I am interested in both the pricing side (e.g. ...
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### What is the cause of a “broken” volatility surface?

I am currently working on a project for which I need the implied volatility surfaces, to estimate the value of plain-vanilla European options with different strikes (cannot be observed directly in the ...
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### How to properly hedge a short vol taking into account hedge stop loss?

Suppose a short straddle. In practice, hedging with long/short futures exposes to the risk of hitting a stop loss when market movements are wide. Eventually, it may very well happen that the hedge ...
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### Log Contract payoff function

I can’t get where Dr. Rouah gets payoff function of log contract. Could you please take a look at that? https://frouah.com/finance%20notes/Variance%20Swap.pdf It’s on page 2, section 3. I couldn’t ...
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### Pricing forward start Cliquet option with implied volatility with Dupire

I have the following implied volatility matrix of a stock index downloaded the 15th February 2019, the value of the stock was 3188.44 at the time: ...
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### Why historical volatility is calculated as N-days annualized?

Annualized historical volatility is always calculate with 10-, 20- days time window. I don't quite understand. Compare with annualized historical return, annualized historical return is never ...
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### Break-even volatility for delta hedge portfolio

After simulating practical and theoretical PnL of a delta hedged portfolio on some data from the SPX500 under 0.15 management Vol I want to find the Vol which gives me an accumulated PnL of 0. ...
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### Mixed local-stochastic volatility model in Quantlib

At a conference the speaker mentioned that it is a standard approach today to use a mix of local and stochastic volatility model in equity, FX and interest rates. Can you please suggest the most ...
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### What are the different indicators to measure historical volatility for stocks on individual basis?

Google search shows there are three indicators to measure volatility: 1. Average True Range 2. Standard Deviation / Variance 3. Bollinger Bands. What are the indicator(s) that you use to identify ...
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### Estimating an GARCH(1,1) model? Long hand method

I am really trying to invest some time to estimate a GARCH(1,1) method, I know there is many statistical packages that will do this for me (Eviews, MATLAB, R), but I am trying to do this by hand, so ...
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### Poor results forecasting stock price volatility using Python's GARCH model

As far as I understand, forecasting stock price volatility should be more achievable than forecasting absolute prices or returns. It seems as though GARCH models are the traditional and most widely ...
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### How to reasonably aggregate returns across both different assets and different time-horizons?

This might be a somewhat open question, so any suggestion of improvement is welcome. Suppose at time $t=0$, we have $N$ different assets whose weights are $w_1,\cdots,w_n$ ($\sum w_i = 1$), and they ...
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### VXX Put pricing

Last week at Friday's close, the Dec 14 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.68 with VXX at \$40.29. This week at Friday's close, the Dec 21 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.38 with VXX at \$40.50....
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### Relationship between asset volatility and debt and equity value

So how I understand it, higher asset volatility implies a higher call option price. The Merton Model holds that the value of equity is a call option. This therefore implies that the equity value must ...
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### How accurate are Black-Scholes estimates of Vega, Volga, Vanna

Wikipedia provides analytical formulas for calculating Greeks. I can get Delta, Gamma, Theta all from Bloomberg. I need Vega, Volga, Vanna for my research. Should I use these analytical formulas for ...
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### Can prediction of realized volatility for next day improve delta hedging (gamma scalping)?

Im quite confused. As I understand from standard delta PNL of option + underlying position, pnl is equals to difference between realized and implied vol weighted by gamma. However, as I understood, ...
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### Forward implied vol vs Instantaneous vol

In the Discrete Stochastic Implied Volatility Model which is from the standard Heston Model, the model shows the evolution of forward implied volatilities with time. I thought forward implied ...
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### Does it make sense to calculate an option price in future (at t+1)?

Often I ask myself whether it makes sense to calculate the price of a Call at t+1 supposing for example that underlying asset does no move i.e. $S_{t+1} = S_{t}$ ...
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### Identifying primary share class of U.S. firms and deleting excess observations

I have a fairly large dataset of CRSP firms with their daily closing prices from 2006 till 2017. I need to filter the data so that I have one daily observation per unique firm. I've identified the ...
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### Modelling VIX futures backwardation

I have VIX futures trading algorithm and would like to perform Monte-Carlo simulation of VIX and understand how my algorithm performs on each simulation. In this case, not only VIX should be modeled, ...
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### Autocall Calibration

I'm trying to price autocalls. In theory my pricing method is ok (I followed Bouzoubaa's book procedure) but I'm not sure I read anything on calibration of autocalls. Basically my question is what ...
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### Dynamically adjusting the size of a Constant Range Bar (on an intraday fx chart)

Constant Range Bars (CRB) is a type of candlestick charting method that does not draw a new candle every unit of time (like every 1/5/15/30 minutes), but every time the range (high-low) of the ...
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### Mix a Forward Delta Premium Adjusted and a Forward Delta to construct the volatility surface

I have two brokers who give me delta strategies for USD-COP, but one of them gives me the issue with forward delta, the another one is premium adjusted. Besides, how can I mix them for construct a ...
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### Vega with SVI Gatheral bumps

How would one go about computing a vega profile of an exotic derivative where the volatility surface is modeled using Gatheral's SVI parameterization? In particular, I am thinking about bumping each ...
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### Pricing and hedging OTC vanilla options

Most OTC option textbooks are about exotic options. I'm curious how sell-side price and hedge OTC vanilla options e.g. European option. What models do they use? How to forecast volatility (using GARCH?...
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### Time frame for implied vs realized vol

I've seen charts of implied vol (IV) against realized volatility? What time frames do people generally use to calculate each? For example, do people generally use ATM 1 month call options to get IV, ...