Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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134 views

What is relation between option adjusted duration and volatility

I am calculating oasd using implied vol of 15%. What is relation between OASD vs Implied volatility in theory for various maturities. I am running using MMD curve. If anyone recommend any good ...
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984 views

ATM-implied volatility

I am trying to understand the methodology that researchers used to compute ATM-implied volatility with real data. The problem is giving the discrete sets strike prices of one particular option with ...
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113 views

What are the current gold standards for volatility prediction error?

I'm working on volatility forecasting models for equities and currencies. I am using daily data and am interested in producing forecasts for the next n days. To ...
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176 views

How would you arbitrage this?

Assume it to be true that $dS = S\mu dt + \sigma(t)S dW$ where $\sigma$(t) is known. Consider a call option with expiry $T$, currently $t = 0$. For all $t \in [0,T]$, $\sigma(t) < \sigma_{impv}$ ...
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75 views

Cox-Ross-Rubinstein - getting volatility

i have exam coming on financial engineering, and need help asap with this thing. Basically there's a European put option ex dividend. We know that the stock price is $S_t = 85$, the exercise price is $...
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150 views

Intraday Volatility using Realized Kernels

Since the papers about realized volatility calculate daily volatility out of intraday data, is it also possible to apply same methods to calculate e.g. 10 minutes volatility by smaller sampled data e....
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239 views

How to calculate the volatility of a equity option spread

I would like to calculate the volatility of an equity option spread with all legs having the same expiration. Reading Option Volatility and Pricing 2nd Edition by Natenberg, Chapter 20, section ...
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68 views

Comments on solution to a rather complicated EGARCH model

I do a lot of nonlinear parameter estimation, but do not have any experience in finance. I posted the following answer to a question about a EGARCH model on cross validated. I have copied the model ...
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2k views

QLIKE loss function to evaluate forecasting model of log(realized volatility)

I use QLIKE as loss function to evaluate the forecasting performance of a RV realized volatility model. QLIKE = log $h$ + $\frac{\hat{\sigma}^2}{h}$ where $h$ is volatility forecast and $\hat{\sigma}...
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157 views

IV surface quoted Skew/Curtosis/Putwing/CallWing

I came across a volatility surface quoted in unknown format to me. I have ATM Vol Skew Kurtosis PutWing and CallWing each for particular tenor. Any idea of what these represent/...
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168 views

Possible to convert between continuous & discrete volatility without underlying data?

Is there a way to convert between continuous and discrete volatility without the actual return data? For example, calculating on 12 monthly returns: ...
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212 views

Is there a way I could find a matlab or R code to estimate a regime switching stochastic volatility model (discrete)?

Sorry to bother you with this request but, does anyone know where I could find a matlab or R code to estimate a regime switching stochastic volatility model (discrete)? Thank you very much.
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111 views

Volatility of the adjusted prices mean reversion

When computing the volatility on the adjusted stocks' prices, would the resulting volatility be mean-reverting? I believe that the volatility of the log returns is mean reverting, but I am not certain ...
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1k views

Calculating weekly portfolio returns for portfolios sorted by volatility

I am having some issues with finding the right code in STATA for sorting the data into portfolios by historical volatility (standard deviation) of returns and then calculating portfolio returns and ...
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206 views

Liquidity horizons of risk factors categories

I'm reading the consultative document of the BCBS on the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs265.pdf Table 2 on page 16 shows the liquidity horizons for 5 broad risk ...
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530 views

How to choose a GARCH model which delivers iid standardized residuals?

For my thesis I first need to examine nine financial time series and fit a conditional volatility model such that the obtained standardized residuals ($z_t = \epsilon_t / \sigma_t$) are approximately ...
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81 views

Delta of an option in two cases

Let C be the prime of a call in fi=unction of the price in term F, Strike K, volatilité $\sigma$ and maturity t: $C(F,K,\sigma,t,r) $ We assume that we know $\delta$ $\delta=\frac{\partial}{\...
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346 views

GARCH estimation does not work, error in my returns?

Hey everyone and I hope that there are some smarter people out here that can help me out with my problem...: I have trouble with my implementation of a GARCH(1,1) model and I do not know how to move ...
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193 views

Relation between Parkinson number and historical volatility

In his book 'Dynamic Hedging', Nassim Taleb gives the relation: P = 1.67*historical volatility, where P is the Parkinson number. What is the basis of this relationship. Does this hold under special ...
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100 views

Cointegration and variance of time series

Given that $X_t , Y_t$ are two cointegrated random processes, what can we say about the relationship between variance of the two increments $var(X_{t+h}-X_t)$ , $var(Y_{t+h}-Y_t)$ for a given $h>0$...
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99 views

Hedge volatility decreases

My particular options positions are typically a long delta, and long vega. Decreases in implied volatility, or specifically the VIX, can drastically alter the profitability of my position. Is there a ...
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40 views

Reputational Harm

How would you measure the reputational harm incurred on an individual by an organization. How is Market Pricing in the expected payout resulting from the law suit by an individual ? The news breaks ...
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292 views

How to hedge a long stock with the corresponding volatility ETF

Let us say I want to establish a market neutral position. So if I buy 50 shares of stock (SPY) and I want to delta hedge, I sell an ATM covered call. So that brings the position delta to 0. Now, I ...
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383 views

Models for volatility estimation of high frequency data?

I have read on several news articles and research papers, "Contrary to popular belief, high frequency trading reduces volatility in stock markets rather than exacerbates it". Do you know the models ...
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184 views

Reference request about stochastic volatility model

I'm fiddling with estimation of stochastic volatility models and have build up a somewhat flexible framework using indirect inference. I would like to try and throw a lot of different continuous ...
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371 views

Adjusting for variance bias when using overlapping data

I'm in the process of constructing volatility cones for several assets and I want to make sure the data is free of biases. I know that using overlapping data introduces an artificial degree of ...
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62 views

What are the estimation methods for SV models?

I want to know about some methods like Methods-of-Moments, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood method, Baysian methods using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Is there any reference to have an idea of these ...
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459 views

How to calculate modeled asset volatility by industry factor?

Currently I am working with huge data frame which consists of a lot firms. For each firm in my sample I calculated asset volatility ( I am using Merton default probability model, so I have used 2 ...
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181 views

What's the link between EURIBOR3M futures volatility and rates volatility?

If I am not wrong, EURIBOR3M futures with maturity $T$, whose price is $F_{T}$, are quoted like contracts which express the underlying forward rates, $r_{T}$, as $$r_{T}=\frac{100-F_{T}}{100}$$ Now ...
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98 views

Clarifying the way in counting number of weeks for calculating historical weekly volatility in Bloomberg

I would like to confirm the way to counting number of weeks for calculating historical weekly volatility in Bloomberg. Given an option with issue date from 14/1/2014 to 13/1/2019, is the proper way to ...
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1answer
278 views

Distribution of realized volatility for stock prices from a GBM

If you generate random stock price paths according to a GBM with daily increments, what will be the distribution of the realized volatility? Assume that the realized volatility is measured over daily ...
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1answer
353 views

SVI Zeliade Vol Surface Calibration

Have a question about SVI Zeliade Implementation (pdf, overview). The paper suggested to do 2 rounds of optimization, first for $\{a,b,\rho\}$ and 2nd for $\{m,\sigma\}$. Does anyone know if I can ...
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1answer
74 views

One-day spikes in implied volatility data

I am building a model that takes the 12 month ATM call implied volatility as one of its inputs. I downloaded this implied vol time series data from Bloomberg for CM CN Equity (Canadian Imperial Bank ...
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1answer
2k views

How to determine volatility for private company for Black-Scholes

I am trying to determine the volatility to use Black-Scholes to value some warrants for a private company. Very few comps are public or they are large diversified businesses. Any thoughts on how to ...
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25 views

how to interpret the results of a GARCH model fit R/python

I have got the following output from a gjrGARCH model, and I need help to interpret it in order to decide whether it is already a good model and proceed with the forecast. ...
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36 views

What's the difference between ATM Vol vs ATMF Vol?

May I ask what's the difference between At-the-money volatility vs At-the-money foward Vol?
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16 views

Price of Call & Put Spreads as Volatility Tends to Infinity in Bachelier Model

In the standard Black Scholes model, as we take volatility to infinity, the price of call spreads goes to zero and the price of put spreads goes to the difference in strikes. I ran a simulation using ...
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9 views

“ugarch” roll from “rugarch” not working in source()

I have an automatic rolling GARCH forecast using the rugarch package in R. It is stored in a file GARCH.R. When I try to run the code using source('GARCH.R'), I get ...
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57 views

Volatility of multimodal distribution of returns

Take $x_1, x_2, \ldots, x_T$ to be the price of a stock, indexed by $t=1, 2, \ldots, T$. Define rate of return at time $t>W$ for a window size of $W$ to be $$r_t = \frac{x_t - x_{t-W}}{x_{t-W}}$$ ...
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25 views

Are there noticeable jumps in index options price due to systematic hedging of structured products close to big expiry dates?

I am looking at investigating factors that will cause jumps in index options prices close to big expiries in the name. I imagine systematic rebalancing of structured products will have a large impact ...
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1answer
71 views

Why my delta position is increasing with increase in spot?

I am trying to take position in future as per the delta position of short put. My strike is 13794 for short put option, spot 10305.3 and volatility is 20.153 then I am getting 5890 position to buy and ...
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2answers
52 views

Value Option with Forward Volatilities

That is probably a rather simple question but I got confused and would be very thankful for help. Imagine we are in 2015 and have an option that expires in either 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021. ...
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27 views

Historical VIX term structure data

I see that there is a CBOE page for collecting individual moments of term structure data, however, I'm wondering if anyone knows how to access historical data in bulk. Here's the CBOE page: http://...
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1answer
31 views

annualised returns and volatility for 3 month data

I have a portofolio with 30 indexes and I want to calculate the annulised returns and volatility because I want to compare it with another portofolio with different number of indexes (but same time ...
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1answer
47 views

Ratios or combinations of risk measures

In finance, alternative risk measures such as value-at-risk (VaR) and GARCH are introduced as replacements to standard deviation volatility. Is there any application or value where several risk ...
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1answer
58 views

How to obtain one-step ahead forecast in Python based on GARCH?

I am trying to produce one-step ahead forecast using GARCH in Python using a fixed windows method. I ultimately want to put the code below in a for loop, but this code snippet does not perform as I ...
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1answer
34 views

GARCH(1,1) forecast plot in R with training data

I've fit a GARCH(1,1) model in R and would like to create a plot similar to the one in this question: Is this the correct way to forecast stock price volatility using GARCH Could someone direct me to ...
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59 views

Where can I find a Python module for Stock volatility estimators using Yang Zhang method?

Does anyone know of a Python library that includes the calculation of historical stock volatility using the Yang Zhang estimator? I have tried and failed to find one but would expect this to have been ...
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1answer
32 views

Call/Put Open interest difference on similar underlying

High open interest for a given option contract is an indicator for interest in that option. For that reason I wanted to take a look at how the open interest of options on volatility have evolved in ...
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71 views

realized correlation estimation

I'm trying to implement the Hayashi - Yoshida estimator for correlation (T. Hayashi, N. Yoshida: On covariance estimation of non-synchronously observed diffusion processes, 2005) and there's something ...