Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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146 views

VXX Put pricing

Last week at Friday's close, the Dec 14 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.68 with VXX at \$40.29. This week at Friday's close, the Dec 21 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.38 with VXX at \$40.50....
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166 views

Relationship between asset volatility and debt and equity value

So how I understand it, higher asset volatility implies a higher call option price. The Merton Model holds that the value of equity is a call option. This therefore implies that the equity value must ...
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184 views

How accurate are Black-Scholes estimates of Vega, Volga, Vanna

Wikipedia provides analytical formulas for calculating Greeks. I can get Delta, Gamma, Theta all from Bloomberg. I need Vega, Volga, Vanna for my research. Should I use these analytical formulas for ...
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80 views

Why do we require a continuous volatility calibration while pricing Options [closed]

On pricing Options the volatility surface is represented by a mathematical model (with parameters). What does it mean to calibrate the volatility surface How often has the volatility surface to be ...
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115 views

Can prediction of realized volatility for next day improve delta hedging (gamma scalping)?

Im quite confused. As I understand from standard delta PNL of option + underlying position, pnl is equals to difference between realized and implied vol weighted by gamma. However, as I understood, ...
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186 views

Forward implied vol vs Instantaneous vol

In the Discrete Stochastic Implied Volatility Model which is from the standard Heston Model, the model shows the evolution of forward implied volatilities with time. I thought forward implied ...
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143 views

Rough Volatility Prediction - Gatheral, Jaisson, Rosenbaum Paper

I just read through the paper "Volatility Is Rough" by Gatheral, Jaisson and Rosenbaum. There is a website (link: http://tpq.io/p/rough_volatility_with_python.html) that details the simulations they ...
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45 views

Does it make sense to calculate an option price in future (at t+1)?

Often I ask myself whether it makes sense to calculate the price of a Call at t+1 supposing for example that underlying asset does no move i.e. $S_{t+1} = S_{t}$ ...
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26 views

Identifying primary share class of U.S. firms and deleting excess observations

I have a fairly large dataset of CRSP firms with their daily closing prices from 2006 till 2017. I need to filter the data so that I have one daily observation per unique firm. I've identified the ...
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66 views

Options volatility margin

A basic question. When traders structure a product in which they are long an option, how is the volatility surface shifted to take into account a margin ? Is it a multiplicative coefficient, say 95% ...
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108 views

Modelling VIX futures backwardation

I have VIX futures trading algorithm and would like to perform Monte-Carlo simulation of VIX and understand how my algorithm performs on each simulation. In this case, not only VIX should be modeled, ...
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89 views

Autocall Calibration

I'm trying to price autocalls. In theory my pricing method is ok (I followed Bouzoubaa's book procedure) but I'm not sure I read anything on calibration of autocalls. Basically my question is what ...
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102 views

Dynamically adjusting the size of a Constant Range Bar (on an intraday fx chart)

Constant Range Bars (CRB) is a type of candlestick charting method that does not draw a new candle every unit of time (like every 1/5/15/30 minutes), but every time the range (high-low) of the ...
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19 views

DCCfit speed up formula

I am estimating the covariance matrix by using GARCH DCC model with function dccfit from package rmgarch. My code is something like: library(rugarch) library(rmgarch) ...
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75 views

Mix a Forward Delta Premium Adjusted and a Forward Delta to construct the volatility surface

I have two brokers who give me delta strategies for USD-COP, but one of them gives me the issue with forward delta, the another one is premium adjusted. Besides, how can I mix them for construct a ...
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140 views

Vega with SVI Gatheral bumps

How would one go about computing a vega profile of an exotic derivative where the volatility surface is modeled using Gatheral's SVI parameterization? In particular, I am thinking about bumping each ...
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79 views

Which stats are the best predictors of model sucess in real time? [closed]

What are the best predictors of real time model success in quantitative trading, i.e. # of transactions, length of backtest, StdDev, Skewness, Excess Kurtosis etc and what are the numerical values of ...
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98 views

Pricing and hedging OTC vanilla options

Most OTC option textbooks are about exotic options. I'm curious how sell-side price and hedge OTC vanilla options e.g. European option. What models do they use? How to forecast volatility (using GARCH?...
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87 views

Calibrating Heston paremeters based on market data for Implied Vol for Call options

Several questions have been asked in here regarding calibration in Heston yet I have not found what I have been looking for, so I will ask: I am looking at a Heston model: $$dS_t=\lambda \sqrt{v_t}...
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37 views

Volswap: fair strike and number of fixings

Let’s assume 1y vol is at 10.0% and there is no skew and the term structure is flat. Let’s assume there are 252 fixings and the annualisation factor is 252. 1) In a BS world, is it correct to say ...
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322 views

Calculating realized volatility of high-frequency data

I am wondering how to calculate the realized volatility. Sources such as say that the realized volatility is the sum of squared log returns sampled at a given frequency. So using 30 minute frequency ...
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186 views

Implied Volatility of cross currency pairs

Been looking for this... Is there any way we can infer directly, say GBP-JPY's 1-year volatility from GBP-USD's and USD-JPY's? Many thanks.
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67 views

How to derive the change in portfolio value as given by Gatheral in The Volatility Surface?

I’m trying to follow Gatheral’s Volatility Surface Ch. 1, i.e. the text (pg. 5 and 6) linked to in this question, with further text discussed in this question. I can’t figure out how to arrive at the ...
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46 views

Why hasn't SVXY recouped more of its lost value as vol has crashed in the past 2 weeks?

SVXY fell from around \$140 to \$9. It has since bounced back 25% to around \$12. Vix futures went from the 11-14 range to 35 and now back to 17-18. SVXY holds a short position in Vix futures with ...
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45 views

Estimate VARMA(p,q)-GARCH(r,s) model

Can I estimate VARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model using R? please suggest any package or chunk of R-codes to estimate this model. Thanks
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55 views

What does multifrequency volatility mean?

I came across the term "multifrequency volatility" while reading the book "Multifractal Volatility: Theory, Forecasting, and Pricing" (2008) by Calvet and Fisher. Can anyone help me understand what ...
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153 views

How can I compute a realized variance for raw instead of log returns?

Whenever I read about calculating realized variance, people are using log returns. However, I was asking myself whether it is possible to calculate realized variance also for simple, raw returns. ...
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23 views

Is variation in price-dividend ratios that is attributable to excess returns due to variation in returns or variation in risk free rates?

Cochrane and Fama show that "all variation in price-dividend ratios corresponds to changes in expected excess returns -risk premiums- and none corresponds to news about future dividend growth". Is ...
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42 views

VaR of future foreign currency income stream

Assume I have a series of future incomes in a single foreign currency. How do I calculate the total VaR for this forex risk using the volatility method? My first thought was that I could simply add ...
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194 views

Why are some Yang Zhang constant k different from the original paper?

I've seen this in the original paper (Yang, Zhang: Drift Independent Volatility Estimation ...) (see Equation 10, Page 483) $$k = \frac{\alpha - 1 }{\alpha + \frac{ n + 1 }{ n - 1 }}$$ while there ...
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204 views

Time frame for implied vs realized vol

I've seen charts of implied vol (IV) against realized volatility? What time frames do people generally use to calculate each? For example, do people generally use ATM 1 month call options to get IV, ...
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63 views

How to extend Realized Volatilty to multiple periods

I'm trying to calculate 5-day realized volatility (as proxy for integrated volatility) using 5-min frequency data. I'm working from the paper CORRECTING THE ERRORS: VOLATILITY FORECAST EVALUATION ...
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105 views

How does volatility affect price arbitrage?

Suppose I'm running automated classic price arbitrage on 3 currencies (let's ignore the unfeasibility of this in our day and age). We have currency pairs Gold/Silver, Silver/Bronze, and Gold/Bronze. ...
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41 views

Volatility taxonomy

I have been thinking about this for a while... I can't make my head around it because of the gap that there's still on between financial economics and quantitative finance. Usually, when a student is ...
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123 views

What is relation between option adjusted duration and volatility

I am calculating oasd using implied vol of 15%. What is relation between OASD vs Implied volatility in theory for various maturities. I am running using MMD curve. If anyone recommend any good ...
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671 views

ATM-implied volatility

I am trying to understand the methodology that researchers used to compute ATM-implied volatility with real data. The problem is giving the discrete sets strike prices of one particular option with ...
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97 views

What are the current gold standards for volatility prediction error?

I'm working on volatility forecasting models for equities and currencies. I am using daily data and am interested in producing forecasts for the next n days. To ...
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140 views

How would you arbitrage this?

Assume it to be true that $dS = S\mu dt + \sigma(t)S dW$ where $\sigma$(t) is known. Consider a call option with expiry $T$, currently $t = 0$. For all $t \in [0,T]$, $\sigma(t) < \sigma_{impv}$ ...
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65 views

Cox-Ross-Rubinstein - getting volatility

i have exam coming on financial engineering, and need help asap with this thing. Basically there's a European put option ex dividend. We know that the stock price is $S_t = 85$, the exercise price is $...
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131 views

Intraday Volatility using Realized Kernels

Since the papers about realized volatility calculate daily volatility out of intraday data, is it also possible to apply same methods to calculate e.g. 10 minutes volatility by smaller sampled data e....
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217 views

How to calculate the volatility of a equity option spread

I would like to calculate the volatility of an equity option spread with all legs having the same expiration. Reading Option Volatility and Pricing 2nd Edition by Natenberg, Chapter 20, section ...
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67 views

Comments on solution to a rather complicated EGARCH model

I do a lot of nonlinear parameter estimation, but do not have any experience in finance. I posted the following answer to a question about a EGARCH model on cross validated. I have copied the model ...
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1k views

QLIKE loss function to evaluate forecasting model of log(realized volatility)

I use QLIKE as loss function to evaluate the forecasting performance of a RV realized volatility model. QLIKE = log $h$ + $\frac{\hat{\sigma}^2}{h}$ where $h$ is volatility forecast and $\hat{\sigma}...
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133 views

IV surface quoted Skew/Curtosis/Putwing/CallWing

I came across a volatility surface quoted in unknown format to me. I have ATM Vol Skew Kurtosis PutWing and CallWing each for particular tenor. Any idea of what these represent/...
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88 views

“At-the-money Implied as a Robust Approximation of the Volatility Swap Rate.” [closed]

Does anyone know where to get this paper? Carr, Peter and R. Lee, January 2004, "At-the-money Implied as a Robust Approximation of the Volatility Swap Rate." On google scholar the paper appears to ...
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148 views

Possible to convert between continuous & discrete volatility without underlying data?

Is there a way to convert between continuous and discrete volatility without the actual return data? For example, calculating on 12 monthly returns: ...
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2answers
144 views

References for biased forecasts from EGARCH

A few months ago I've read somewhere that although the exponential GARCH model may lead to higher BIC values in comparison to other extensions of the GARCH family (GARCH, GJR-GARCH, TGARCH, ...), ...
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210 views

Is there a way I could find a matlab or R code to estimate a regime switching stochastic volatility model (discrete)?

Sorry to bother you with this request but, does anyone know where I could find a matlab or R code to estimate a regime switching stochastic volatility model (discrete)? Thank you very much.
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Volatility of the adjusted prices mean reversion

When computing the volatility on the adjusted stocks' prices, would the resulting volatility be mean-reverting? I believe that the volatility of the log returns is mean reverting, but I am not certain ...
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1k views

Calculating weekly portfolio returns for portfolios sorted by volatility

I am having some issues with finding the right code in STATA for sorting the data into portfolios by historical volatility (standard deviation) of returns and then calculating portfolio returns and ...