Questions tagged [yield-curve]

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1answer
2k views

Forecast 3m LIBOR USD. Budget purpose

How can I calculate/budget/find a expectation for the 3 month LIBOR for the next 3monts-4 years? I am calculating a CF scenario on USD 3month Libor + margin. With swaps and fixed rate this is easy, ...
2
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1answer
531 views

Building curves using onshore or offshore JPY overnight rates?

I am trying to build Japanese Yen interest rate curves. When defining the curve instruments for the 'OIS' (discount) curve (aka TONAR), I am uncertain as to which rate to use for the overnight deposit ...
2
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1answer
185 views

Economic indicators leading the yield curve

There is a lot of research on how the government yield curve can be used to predict the economy. The government yield curve is often seen as a leading indicator. But for which variables is the curve a ...
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0answers
36 views

Par rates, zero rates and forward rates curves in swaps

I'm new to the concept of swaps, I'm having hard time understanding what each curve relationship with a swap derivative traded in the market. Can someone please explain this? Thank you.
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0answers
211 views

Using Python Quantlib's FittedBondDiscountCurve as Evaluator of Parametric Curve - Errors

I am using Quantlib's FittedBondDiscountCurve in Python 3.7 and setting MaxIterations to 0, and giving a guess_solution, which then turns the routine into an evaluator for the parametric form I choose,...
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0answers
236 views

How to interpret DV01 in terms of PCA equivalent?

I have computed the PCs for daily changes in the UST yield curve over the last 5 years using the covariance matrix and can explain 94% of the variance using the first two components, which is good ...
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0answers
111 views

Yield Curve Trading Strategy Explaining Books

Recently I really enjoyed being here while getting great recommendations. Would like to thank you all. Could you please recommend some books/papers on trading strategies, lets say yield curve ...
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0answers
46 views

Bond Index Return from Yield Curve Data [duplicate]

I am trying to compare fund returns with benchmark returns. I have some yield curve data (some of them calculated by Bloomberg) but not bond price or return data. Is there any way to get bond returns ...
2
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0answers
80 views

Strategy in steepening curve environment, stable spreads - HotS interview problem

The following problem was found in "Heard on the Street": You construct a yield curve for (coupon-bearing) treasuries. A particular five-year corporate zero-coupon bond has a default risk ...
2
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0answers
43 views

Custom Frequency termstrc Package

Termstrc package in R by default uses yearly coupon frequencies. Dataset i am working with is semi-yearly coupon bonds. Here are the variables it takes into the model ...
2
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0answers
77 views

How do traders determine when points in a yield curve are at 'fair value'?

While on my last day on an internship last summer, I heard on the morning call a UK rates trader say something along the lines of: "Most of the curve is at fair value at the moment, so nothing ...
2
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1answer
375 views

Discount factor taking into account yield curve shape

I have always been told that the discount factor formula is just: $$ DF(T) = \frac{1}{(1+L_{t_0})^T} $$ where $L_{t_0}$ is the LIBOR rate on one period (the first one I guess) and $T$ the number of ...
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0answers
145 views

Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve PART ONE

As I understand it, the Fed has 3 tools for moving interest rates to combat inflation/unemployment: the discount rate, Fed Funds rate and open market operations. I'm trying to understand how the ...
2
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0answers
109 views

Turn of the year

I understand the basics of "Turn of the year" effect. But I am wondering why does this effect sometimes cause overnight rates around year end to dip below normal overnight rate levels (i.e. negative ...
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0answers
324 views

Data source for a corporate bond yield curve?

Yield curves are a valuable tool for economic analysis. It is particularly interesting to analyse the difference between Government Debt yields and Corporate Debt yields (credit spreads). This gives ...
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3answers
201 views

YTM of “very-seasoned” bond issues

There is a liquidity premium between on-the-run treasury issues and off-the-run issues with similar characteristics. This is why when building a yield curve, typically on-the-run issues are used to ...
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2answers
12k views

Par Yield Curves vs Zero Curves

Does it make sense to look at par yield curve for German bonds in the current environment? Because low rates mean that a lot of bonds are trading above much above par (even around 150!). I would ...
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2answers
193 views

Intuitive explanation of geometric mean

Suppose that the 10 Year Treasury Yield Rate varies every trading day during the year X1 (which in practice is accurate) what is the intuitive explanation behind calculating the geometric mean using ...
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1answer
1k views

Quantlib bootstraping fails on 5y swap

I'm trying to build a euro swap curve with real up to date data. I should say that examples provided in github work fine. as soon as I add the 5y swap, I got the following error : ...
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2answers
579 views

Who determine Sport rate curve (Yield Curve)

My study was in a Mathematical modelling, we studied much about theory, equations, how to resolve equation, how to implement, but we don't understand well where these equations come from. My ...
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1answer
62 views

How to do simultaneous dual curve bootstrapping?

I wish to understand how dual curve bootstrapping is done? Lets say we want to bootstrap FF OIS curve and Libor 3 month fwd curve simultaneously. Lets also assume we don't LIBOR-OIS basis swap rates ...
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1answer
1k views

Applications of PCA to yield curve analysis

One of the applications of Principal Component Analysis in Finance is to analyse the shape of the yield curve. But what conclusions can be drawn exactly from performing this exercise? Does it help us ...
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1answer
442 views

ESTER replacement for EONIA/EURIBOR

Does anybody know what impact the replacement of EONIA with ESTER ( Euro Short TErm Rate ) will have on discounting existing or new derivatives once EONIA will be restricted as of Jan 2020? I'm ...
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1answer
86 views

Why should central bank intervention cause inverted yield curve to be less effective as a recession signal?

Pimco's new CIO Dan Ivascyn believes that the inverted yield curve has become less effective as a signal of impending recession. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-22/pimco-s-ivascyn-...
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2answers
185 views

Is it possible to derive a reasonable USD yield curve using only publicly/freely available data sources?

Background I'm a corporate financial analyst with a small derivatives portfolio (amortizing interest rate swaps and FX forwards) looking to value these derivatives "properly" (which, in my case, ...
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1answer
2k views

Setting input parameters for Nelson Siegel Svensson model

I am trying to determine the parameters for the Nelson Siegel Svensson model and am solving a Non-Linear Optimization problem to do this. I am trying to solve: $$ \min_\theta{\sum{(p_i - \hat p_i)^2}...
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2answers
207 views

Investment: Bond vs Equity

I was talking to a friend recently and he asked me the following question. If I have a device which perfectly (with 100% accuracy) predicts that both a bond (e.g. AAA rated government bond) and the ...
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1answer
75 views

Interpolation for discount curve building QuantLib for bonds

I'm trying to figure out how to build a discount curve to price bonds from spot rates using some advance interpolation methods like PiecewiseLogCubicDiscount. I know I can build this curve with ...
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1answer
90 views

Required adjustments for stressed yield curves

I was looking at Basel proposed interest rate shocks. Using the standard US Treasury Yield Curve for the period starting from September 2017 to August 2019, I was able to construct Steep and Flat ...
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1answer
336 views

Curve steepner and convexity

Can someone please explain why a curve steepener trade has a negative convexity? And are the gains from the steepness of the curve offset by the negative convexity?
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1answer
1k views

Details of calibration of Hull-White model

Consider the one-factor Hull-White model $$ \mathrm{d}r(t) = (\theta(t)-\kappa r(t))\mathrm{d}t + \sigma\mathrm{d}W(t) $$ When one calibrates the model to market data one chooses $$ \theta(t) = \...
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1answer
1k views

High convexity vs low convexity bond definition

Isn't high convexity always better than low convexity bond from the formula that $$\frac {ΔB} B=-D \frac {Δy} {1+y} + \frac 1 2 CΔy^2$$ Since $\frac 1 2 CΔy^2$ is positive no matter what so the price ...
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1answer
545 views

Build a swap curve / Swap Hedging

I’m going through the exercise of building a swap curve. I understand I need libor rates for the short-end, futures for the medium-end, and swap rates for the long-end. Should I be using bid, mid, ...
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2answers
2k views

Is the “swap curve” synonymous with the “yield curve”?

Looking at the swap curve construction here: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/wp00-17.pdf it seems to be constructed in an identical fashion as the yield curve as described here:...
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1answer
129 views

Interest rate risk using copulas

In order to simulate an interest rate yield curve, can I just estimate a covariance matrix of historical key rate data, simulate with a normal copula, spline my simulated key rates, then price my ...
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1answer
633 views

QuantLib FittedBondDiscountCurve fitResults [Error]

I try to use FittedBondDiscountCurve with NelsonSiegelFitting, but I faced with error when call fitResults() method: ...
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1answer
1k views

Deriving a 3M libor curve from 6M libor swaps and 3M-6M libor basis swaps

If I had a set of 6M Libor instruments and another set of 3M-6M basis swap instruments, how would I derive the 3M Libor curve? Just bootstrap the 6M curve and the basis curve and add up the zero ...
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1answer
514 views

How to get real interest rate from Nominal spot rates?

I have the nominal spot rates. Based on the Fisher equation , how to get the real interest rate ($r$) and the "expected inflation" ($\pi$) ?
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2answers
185 views

Yield curve interpolation at (very) short horizons

I'm struggling to find much information about yield curve interpolation for sub-yearly horizons. Say, one-two months. It seems to be the area where the curvature is usually nontrivial, while after ...
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1answer
322 views

“Friendly” papers about maximum smoothness yield curve modelling

I'm currently looking to implement some version of the yield curve modeling techniques in the maximum smoothness framework. The papers I have found so far explains the theory pretty well, but I find ...
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1answer
77 views
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1answer
152 views

Quantlib Yield Curve

Is it possible to create yield curve object in Quantlib given some function of time? For example, given Nelson-Siegel parameters, create yield curve which can compute zero yield for any date >= ...
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1answer
231 views

Find Interest Rate Swap BUMPs from Bloomberg in Excel

I have a bunch of plain vanilla interest rate swap contracts with all the relevant details regarding payment structure such as notional, fixed rate, index, payment frequency, reset convention, etc.. ...
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2answers
179 views

Stress testing fixed income Yield curve with Nelson Siegel

I am attempting to stress test the Zero coupon Yield curve using The Nelson Siegel model as described in the following papers : Generating Yield Curve Stress-Scenarios Representative Yield Curve ...
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1answer
149 views

daycount of the yield curve

Complete characterization of an interest rate requires a few elements: day count compounding frequency the rate itself start date and end date That said, I notice that day counts are never displayed ...
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1answer
89 views

Concentration risk in Rates

What are some good ways to assess the concentration risk for a rates curve or by currency when volumes traded by instrument are not easily available? For ex, if for some currencies, the PV01 at ...
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1answer
136 views

Construction of synthetic deposits

I'm looking at the paper "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Multiple Interest Rate Curve Bootstrapping But Were Afraid To Ask". It describes how to construct synthetic deposits in order get a ...
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2answers
895 views

Principal component analysis for yield curve

I have Treasury yield data across 11 maturities for past 1 year. I have used a code in MATLAB for PCA on change in yield curve. Now, I have covariance matrix of daily/monthly yield curve changes, ...
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1answer
192 views

Does the YTM for a zero coupon treasury equal the treasury yield curve value for it's maturity?

The title is my question. I think the answer is yes, but I am unsure about it.
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1answer
54 views

Why 10 year treasury yield expectation note priced in bond prices?

A lot of large firms are predicting that the 10 year treasury yield is going to rise. My question is that if such prediction has any substance, shouldn't the current 10 year yield rise accordingly, as ...