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1answer
168 views

How to model High/Low prices for Stocks with Monte Carlo

I'm using monte carlo simulation to model stock paths and measure risk, but I was wondering if there is a way to simulate the full bar/candle chart with open, high, low and close prices , as I'm only ...
0
votes
0answers
4 views

What NPV value to expect with X% success?

cross-posted from https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3326309/what-value-to-expect-with-x-success I'm trying to intuit the following statements based on the plot below, but I'm stuck on the ...
0
votes
0answers
12 views

Solutions for Paul Wilmott Derivatives Book

I am looking for solutions manual for Derivatives, "the theory and practice of financial engineering". I'm not sure if the manual is published ever but I couldn't get it. I would be more than happy ...
0
votes
1answer
45 views

How does one calculate the duration of a cash flow

The question reads: A firm has liabilities as follows: £2,910 at time t = 0 and £7,501 at time t = 4 (time is measured in years). On the asset side the firm has two payments, each for £5,000, at time ...
5
votes
3answers
661 views

Do banks' profitability really suffer under low interest rates

It is always said that European banks suffer, amongst other things, from the low interest rate environment governing the Eurozone. And that in a rising interest rate environment, banks' profitability ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

What is the annualized realized volatility of simulated Brownian motion paths?

I saw this following question in an exam. My intuition is D, but I wonder if there's a trick. (The question can't be that straightforward?) Take a Brownian motion simulation with drift 5% and ...
0
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0answers
22 views

How does duplicate data affect backtesting?

Before developing a trading strategy, one should clean and preprocess his data set. It is very common that a data set contains huge number of duplicates. Question: How does duplicate data affect ...
1
vote
1answer
21 views

GARCH MODEL AND CONDITIONAL VARIANCE

Suppose you wanted to model a $1 million dollar loss (for black swan events) on 1% of days, how do you incorporate this into GARCH? Is it through changing the alpha/beta weightings?
10
votes
1answer
545 views

Variance swap volatility - ATMF vol, Skew and Curvature

In a pure diffusion setting, it is a well known result that the volatility $\sigma_T$ of a fresh-start variance swap of maturity $T$ as seen of $t=0$ verifies \begin{align} \sigma_T^2 &= \Bbb{E}_0^...
3
votes
1answer
278 views

VAR-aDCC full ARCH and GARCH parameter matrices in R

I am working with the rmgarch package in R and I estimated a VAR-aDCC model. Is there any way to extract the extended version of estimates (allowing for volatility ...
12
votes
6answers
10k views

Risk Neutral Probability

I read that an option prices is the expected value of the payout under the risk neutral probability. Intuitively why is the expectation taken with respect to risk neutral as opposed to the actual ...
2
votes
1answer
49 views

Question about volatility surfaces

As a learner, I'm curious to know the answer to 2 questions regarding volatility surfaces 1) It's stated that volatility surface should be flat accdording to Black-Scholes model. Why is that? Time (...
1
vote
2answers
72 views

Fama French Three Factor Model: How do I get the risk premia?

I try to calculate the cost of equity with the FF3 model and already estimated the beta factors for the market, size and value risk premia by using regressions and the data provided on the Kenneth ...
2
votes
1answer
410 views

Brennan-Schwartz algorithm for pricing American options

I'm reading Pricing American Options using LU decomposition by Ikonen and Toivanen (IT). They reference The valuation of American put options by Brennan and Schwartz, and cast it as method that uses ...
1
vote
0answers
28 views

International Baccalaureate - Balance Sheet Format

I would like to transform Tesla's balance sheet (https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/financials?query=balance-sheet) into the IB-balance sheet format (see below). In the current assets section, is it,...
1
vote
0answers
7 views

How to implement Time varying EWMA cross correlation in STATA?

I have read this question, I know about lambda, demeaned subindexes. But not able to implement in STATA?
3
votes
1answer
2k views

Estimating correlation using EWMA

I am using an EWMA model to evaluate the correlation between yearly time series. I know Riskmetrics uses $\lambda=0.94$ for daily data and $\lambda=0.97$ for monthly data. Is there a value ...
1
vote
0answers
20 views

How to find the right Shift for the SABR Model

I'm looking for the right approche to find the right Shift for the SABR Model.
1
vote
1answer
41 views

Can we use Black-Scholes to price path dependent options?

I know that we can use the Black-Scholes framework to price vanilla products like a European call or put, where the payoff only depends on the share price at maturity. But can we use it to price path ...
8
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0answers
874 views
+50

Constructing Volatility Smile from American Options

My question is about best practices for reconstructing volatility smiles for a fixed tenor from American option data. For simplicity/liquidity, I am currently considering options on SPY. I am ...
2
votes
1answer
462 views

(Reproducible example) Conditional returns in GARCH-EVT-Copula context (with R)

I'm estimating a time-varying correlation matrix for the normal copula using the rmgarch package from R. I've found this code in the rmgarch.tests folder. I use the ...
4
votes
0answers
74 views

monte carlo simulation

I'm a graduate student working on a real options research problem suggested to me by my advisor. I'm not looking for a solution, but I'd like to know about the feasibility of numerically solving the ...
9
votes
1answer
386 views

Block bootstrap to synthesize asset prices

I have a few basic questions on block bootstrapping on a financial time series ('TS'). Assuming my trade universe consists of 10 stocks, I would like to create a set of synthetic prices for all 10 ...
4
votes
1answer
120 views

Which securities have expirations more often than monthly?

I'd like to explore buying low-cost calls close to the money, so I'm looking for low time values in options premiums. This happens near options expiration. Unfortunately, most options expire on the ...
0
votes
1answer
79 views

What does “Gamma profit/loss” mean?

I understand the Greeks as derivatives, but I'm very confused with terms like "Gamma profit/loss""Theta profit/loss". What do these terminologies mean? I've searched online but can't find a proper ...
0
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0answers
27 views

Negative drift when calibrating GBM parameters

Setup for question: Consider a basket of $N$ stocks $\{S^1, S^2, \dots, S^N\}$. For fixed strike $K$, each stock in the basket, $S^i$, follows the SDE $$dS_t^i = \mu^i(t) S_t^i dt + \sigma^i(K, t) ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

Where to get MSCI World Index constituents (+ weights)

Where can I download The MSCI World index constituents and their weights (daily update) The current prices of the constituents plus three years of EOD (or weekly) history Corporate actions of the ...
0
votes
0answers
11 views

Confidence Intervals for ARMA+GARCH forecasts

I have fitted an ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model to my logreturns series. When it comes to my standarized error's distribution however, I have opted for a Skewed Generalized Error Distribution, because of ...
1
vote
0answers
42 views

FX Spot Delta market standard calculation (Trader View)

I am just writing my thesis about FX instrument and hedging and one question popped up which I can't solve. Maybe it is silly but cant find anything about it how the delta of a fx spot is defined and ...
9
votes
1answer
708 views

Issue with OLS Regression for Nelson Siegel Svensson parameters

I have been working on getting input parameters to the Non-Linear Optimization which gives the Nelson Siegel Svensson model parameters and am carrying out the OLS regression as described in this ...
0
votes
1answer
46 views

Clarification on certain finance terms surrounding bonds

Whilst revising for my upcoming financial mathematics exam I've been struggling to get to grips with certain terms/ phrases used when studying Bonds. I am very new to Finance and get confused very ...
1
vote
1answer
27 views

Gibbons, Ross, Shanken Test derivation by MLE

I Am trying to derive the expression for the GRS test of the CAPM. I am following the book: The Econometrics Of Financial Markets by Campbell, Lo, McKinley (1997). Define $Z_t$ as an $N×1$ vector of ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

Bates Model Jump Percentage Parameters

I am trying to calculate the jump parameters for the Bates volatility jumps, specifically, the mean of the jump percentages, $\mu_j$. For the value of $J$, I am using jumps $|\frac{s_{i}-s_{i-1}}{s_{i-...
0
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0answers
25 views

Good benchmark for european Flexible asset allocation funds?

Flexible allocation funds usually do not state any benchmark. Because flexible funds allocations are dynamic and less constrained, determining an appropriate benchmark for the funds is challenging. I ...
4
votes
1answer
249 views

Using Kendall rank correlation to construct a covariance matrix?

I am wondering if it's mathematically 'correct' to employ a correlation matrix based on Kendall-correlation when constructing a covariance matrix? I.e., is it wrong to multiply standard deviations of ...
2
votes
1answer
2k views

How to compute for basis adjusted forward rate?

To give you a brief background, I'm valuing a fixed-for-float Interest Rate Swap (IRS) using Bloomberg. I put in a notional amount in (USD) and a assigned 6MO USD LIBOR as the reference index for the ...
2
votes
1answer
380 views

how to choose a price adjustment, a roll date and a data center for my trading strategy?

I have many doubts about Which roll date and price adjustment should I use. I need to backtest like 50 diferents futures. 6 index(mini sp500, Nikkei 225…), 10 Agriculture (soybean, Oat, Corn….),3 ...
7
votes
2answers
9k views

Typical risk aversion parameter value for mean-variance optimization?

What are typical values for risk aversion parameters $\lambda$ used in mean-variance optimization? Please provide references. Just to be clear, I'm talking about the $\lambda$ in $U(w) = w'\mu - \...
1
vote
0answers
22 views

Possible interference of Cross-Rate inaccuracy and CIP Deviations

I am currently attempting to calculate historical deviations from covered interest rate parity between 2013 and 2018. I recently read that: "Unlike the interbank spot market, in the interbank ...
4
votes
1answer
94 views

evaluation of option pricing models based on Greeks empirical hedging effectiveness

I’ve studied many different pricing models (B&S, Vasicek, CIR, Merton jump, Heston, ecc), each of them gives as output a different price and different values for the Greeks. So, for example, if ...
4
votes
2answers
43 views

How can one effectively approximate the fill portion of a limit order in a FIFO order book given it's recent state?

What methods could one use to find the step wise probability of a partial or full fill of an order in the best ask/bid level of a limit order book given the historic best ask and best bid quantities ...
0
votes
1answer
82 views

How to price a barrier using monte carlo when return distribution is not iid?

this question is actually related to set the stop loss and stop return. Say after a liquidity shock, I want to place two stops, one being stop loss and another being stop return. If I use, say 10 ...
3
votes
1answer
93 views

I am trying to solve this question about optimal stopping theory. I don't know how to get started. Any hints would be very helpful

Let $Z = (Zn)_{n=0,1,...,N}$ be the Snell envelope of $X = (Xn)_{n=0,1,...,N}$ and $τ ∈ T_{0,N}$. Let $Z_n = M_n − A_n$ be the Doob decomposition of Z, then $Z_n^τ = M_n^τ − A_n^τ$ is the Doob ...
0
votes
2answers
90 views

FX Correlation Risk from cross ccy pairs

Suppose you are long a TRYJPY call option. And lets say you can delta hedge using USDTRY, AUDJPY, and AUDUSD. In this case I would delta hedge by buying USDTRY, selling AUDJPY, and buying AUDUSD. If ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

Covariance matrix from GJR-GARCH?

I am implementing a AR(1)-GJR-GARCH(1,1) model to some asset returns, and I would need to have a covariance matrix but I struggle to see how I can compute one from the model I used? I know I can have ...
2
votes
2answers
104 views

American Option Exercise

Suppose I am a market maker in American options. At end of day I have positions in various options but my portfolio is overall hedged. Now, after the market close, someone decides to exercise an ITM ...
1
vote
2answers
70 views

Single-step Monte Carlo in Excel

How do you simulate correctly using raw prices not returns? I have corresponding periods of earnings to Futures but the Excel call function =NORMINV(RAND(),mean,stdev) generates negative Futures ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

Cega - Correlation Delta from multi-asset derivative

I want to calculate the Cega, i.e. correlation delta, for a multi-asset derivative numerically (the difference of the price from a tiny move in correlation). However, I found it is difficult to follow ...
2
votes
1answer
89 views

When to stop training?

I have built a deep reinforcement learning based portfolio optimisation agent. At a high level it is using macro economic data, valuations of the assets and a few technical indicators as the features. ...
0
votes
1answer
358 views

Implied AUD Interest Rate from USDAUD FX Swap and USD Interest Rate

Can someone help me understand how to derive the implied interest rate or spot rate in BBG FXFA? I actually get why the Forward rate, F_Ask and F_Bid are derived using the formula in the picture. ...

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