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8
votes
2answers
8k views

Best method for interpolating yield curve? [Multiple questions]

I'm building a spot curve for US Treasuries. My original selection of cash treasury include all the on-the-run bills, notes, bonds from 6 months to 30 years, as well as some selected off-the-run ...
4
votes
1answer
3k views

Calendar Arbitrage in a Vol Surface

I am trying to determine the condition such that my implied vol surface doesn't have calendar arbitrage. I have done research and found that one such condition is that total variance should increase ...
6
votes
2answers
6k views

How to calculate US treasury total return from yield?

I'm struggling to understand the meaning of US treasury total return. What is easily available to get is yield data. Yield can be directly translated to the bond price at that time. In other words, ...
8
votes
2answers
2k views

Arbitrage Free Volatility Smile

When ATM implied volatility is higher than OTM put and call I believe that the volatility smile is no longer arbitrage free? Why is that? On the other hand, when ATM implied volatility is lower than ...
8
votes
4answers
733 views

European Call Option Delta Upper Bound

For a pure equity process (with interest rate, dividend, etc., being zero) not necessarily the geometric Brownian motion, is the delta of a European call option always no higher than $1$? I am NOT ...
10
votes
4answers
8k views

Ways of treating time in the BS formula

The Black-scholes formula typically has time as $\sqrt{T-t}$ or some such. My questions: What is the granularity of this? If we treat $t$ as the number of days, then logically on the day of expiry, ...
8
votes
1answer
895 views

Obtaining risk-neutral probability from option prices

Suppose I have the following data (for the current stock and option prices of the Bank of America) Strike Last IV Probability 4 8 5.43 0.5813566 0.0000000 7 11 2.45 0.2868052 ...
7
votes
2answers
489 views

Intuitive explanation of stochastic portfolio theory

Fernholz and Karatzas have published various papers about so called stochastic portfolio theory. Basically they say that the return to be expected from a portfolio on the long run is rather the ...
3
votes
1answer
15k views

Formula for forward price of bond

What is the formula for the forward price of a bond (assuming there are coupons in the interim period, and that the deal is collateralised) Please also prove it with an arbitrage cashflow scenario ...
8
votes
1answer
609 views

Why is the GARCH intercept supposed to be strictly positive?

Maybe it's a simple question but I don't really understand why it is theoretically required. Let's take the standard GARCH(1,1) $$\sigma^2_{t+1}=\omega+\alpha\epsilon^2_{t}+\beta\sigma^2_{t}$$ In most ...
5
votes
3answers
5k views

What is an efficient method to find implied volatility?

I have a code that finds the implied volatility using the Newton-Raphson method. I set the number of trial to 1000 but sometimes it fails to converge and doesn't find the result. Is there a better ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

Dynamic Hedge of Quanto Options

Can anybody explain to me step-by-step how can I dynamically hedge and/or replicate a quanto option with the foreign underlying asset, the foreign cash account and the domestic cash account as ...
4
votes
2answers
750 views

Importance Sampling for pricing options with longstaff and schwartz

I have been asking this similar question before. However, I really want to be concrete and get and concrete explanation. I have been reading the paper by Moreni and try to implement the same ...
2
votes
2answers
5k views

Calculate strike from Black Scholes delta

I have a list of deltas and their corresponding volatilities in an FX market but I want to go from delta to strike price. In this Question similar problem is being discussed How can I calculate the ...
11
votes
1answer
7k views

Implied dividend estimation

I am looking at two different ways of estimating the expected / implied dividends from market data. 1. Dividend futures I know that this asset class is not very liquid and might not be ...
10
votes
3answers
7k views

How does Cornish-Fisher VaR (aka modified VaR) scale with time?

I am thinking about the time-scaling of Cornish-Fisher VaR (see e.g. page 130 here for the formula). It involves the skewness and the excess-kurtosis of returns. The formula is clear and well ...
9
votes
0answers
293 views

Jim Gatheral's ansatz

In the Ansatz section of Jim Gatheral's book Volatility Surface (page 32), he assumes $$\mathbb E[x_s|x_T]=x_T\frac{\hat w_s}{\hat w_T}$$ where $\hat w_t:=\int_0^t \hat v_s ds$ is the expected total ...
8
votes
2answers
3k views

How to use the stock as a numeraire to price a derivative with payoff of the form $(S_T f(S_T))^+$?

I have $\frac{dS_t}{S_t} = rdt + \sigma dW_t$ as usual under the money-market numéraire and I need to price options with payoffs $$(S_T f(S_T))^+$$ How do I express the stock dynamics using the ...
5
votes
1answer
7k views

Proof of gamma profit formula

http://www.volcube.com/resources/options-articles/gamma-hedging-trading-strategies-part-i/ I would like to have proven to me the above formula, mostly because I don't quite understand it. The formula ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

Black-Litterman, how to choose the uncertainty in the views $\Omega$ for smooth transitions from prior to posterior

In Black-Litterman we get a new vector of expected returns of the form: \begin{align} \Pi_{BL} = \Pi + \underbrace{\tau \Sigma P^T[P\tau\Sigma P^T+\Omega]^{-1}}_{\text{correction}}[Q-P\Pi] \end{align} ...
5
votes
1answer
136 views

Motivation of the singular perturbation solution formulation for local volatility model

I am puzzled by the motivation of the particular choice of the (singular) perturbation method used in Equivalent Black Volatilities. Equation (A.6a) sets $$\epsilon:= A(K)\ll 1.$$ What is the ...
3
votes
2answers
814 views

Understanding the solution of this integral

The following integral represents an expected value of a geometric brownian motion for $S_T>K$ (i.e. part of the Black-Scholes call option price): $$\int_{z^*} (S_te^{\mu\tau-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2\...
3
votes
2answers
754 views

Put-Call relationship for Option on Forward

The forward price of a forward contract maturing at time T on an asset with price St at time t is, $$ F=S_te^{(r-q)(T-t)} $$ where $r$ is the risk free rate and $q$ is the continuous dividend rate ...
2
votes
4answers
3k views

Prove that the butterfly condition is always greater than zero

I need to prove that the butterfly condition is always positive under no arbitrage theorem. We are constructing a long butterfly using European call options ...
2
votes
1answer
410 views

Calculating the pricing error in Fama-Macbeth Regression for Fama/French 5 Factor model

I'm very much new to this area and I need to know on how to calculate the pricing error in Fama/French 5-Factor model. The evaluation was done using the Fama-Macbeth approach. I did everything as ...
5
votes
1answer
185 views

Change of measure's impact on parameter value

This is a follow-up question on Price of a prepayment-based claim. Consider a zero-coupon bond of maturity $T$ with price $P_0$ for which the borrower can reimburse the principal $N$ at any time $\...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

How many monte carlo runs do I need for pricing a Call?

I have to price several calls using Monte Carlo. Obviously, there is a huge tradeoff between the number of runs and the fair price of the call option. I know I can check how the approximation changes ...
4
votes
3answers
14k views

Difference between CAPM and single index model

which is the difference betwee a model like CAPM and a single index model? Is the first a special case of the second? Best
3
votes
1answer
3k views

Risk Free Rate vs LIBOR

Theoretically, in pricing derivatives, most textbooks refer to the risk-free rate. What is obtainable in practice? The risk-free rate or the LIBOR rate?
3
votes
2answers
443 views

Verifying an identity of an equation for Black Scholes formula

I just started working on the Black Scholes formula with help of the book Financial option valuation by Higham. Apparently you are possible to derive the following function: $\log(\frac{SN'(d_1)}{e^{-...
1
vote
1answer
144 views

How far the spot price is likely to go from the current level in three months if its volatility is 15.7%

On Page 24 of N. Taleb's "Dynamic Hedging" the author gives the following example Example: Assume that an asset trades at \$100, with interest rates at 6% (annualized) and volatility at 15.7%. ...
0
votes
0answers
120 views

Exotic option arbitrage

Suppose an exotic European option has a sub hedging (price being lower than the target) portfolio of vanilla European options all with the same expiry as the exotic option. The sub hedging portfolio ...
129
votes
14answers
164k views

How can I go about applying machine learning algorithms to stock markets?

I am not very sure, if this question fits in here. I have recently begun, reading and learning about machine learning. Can someone throw some light onto how to go about it or rather can anyone share ...
38
votes
3answers
4k views

What papers have progressed the field of quantitative finance in recent years (post 2000)?

My question is pretty simple: what papers do you feel are foundational to quantitative finance? I'm compiling a personal reading list already, drawn from Wilmott forums, papers referenced in ...
37
votes
3answers
23k views

How to build a factor model?

Factor models such as Fama-French or the other ones that are partially summarized here work on the cross-section of asset returns. How are the factors built, how are sensitivities/coefficients ...
31
votes
3answers
4k views

How do you mix quantitative asset allocation with qualitative views?

Usually in asset allocation you have a quantitative approach (which can be from example mean-variance), but you (or you and your firm) also have a more qualitative approach given market-conditions, ...
30
votes
6answers
34k views

How to identify technical analysis chart patterns algorithmically?

I'm working on a small application that will provide some charts and graphs to be used for technical analysis. I'm new to TA but I'm wondering if there is a way to algorithmically identify the ...
37
votes
4answers
9k views

What types of neural networks are most appropriate for trading?

What types of neural networks are most appropriate for forecasting returns? Can neural networks be the basis for a high-frequency trading strategy? Types of neural networks include: Radial Basis ...
40
votes
12answers
27k views

Why does the minimum variance portfolio provide good returns?

I've been a researching minimum variance portfolios (from this link) and find that by building MVPs adding constraints on portfolio weights and a few other tweaks to the methods outlined I get ...
34
votes
2answers
8k views

Which approach to estimating fundamental factor models is better, cross-sectional (unobservable) factors or time-series (observable) factors?

There are many approaches to estimating fundamental factor equity models. I would like to focus on two traditional methods: The time-series regression approach of Fama and French. Factors are ...
31
votes
11answers
4k views

Separating the wheat from the chaff: What quant methods separate skillful managers from lucky ones?

Fund managers are acting in a highly stochastic environment. What methods do you know to systematically separate skillful fund managers from those that were just lucky? Every idea, reference, paper ...
33
votes
11answers
61k views

Where to get long time historical intraday data?

I am looking for long time historical intraday day data on the S&P500 composite for a time horizon like 10 years with a - for example 10-minutes tick - or prices for call/put options on the S&...
32
votes
9answers
13k views

What tools exist for order book analysis and visualization?

What tools exist for order book analysis and visualization? In particular, if one wanted to examine a limit order book and understand how it changes throughout the day where would you turn for ...
44
votes
9answers
7k views

How 'High' is the frequency in HFT?

How many trades per second are we talking about? What kind of strategies are used in this time frame? Can the small guy play the game?
28
votes
8answers
26k views

What is the best data structure/implementation for representing a time series?

I was wondering what is best practice for representing elements in a time series, especially with large amounts of data. The focus/context is in a back testing engine and comparing multiple series. ...
31
votes
5answers
5k views

Random matrix theory (RMT) in finance

The new kid on the block in finance seems to be random matrix theory. Although RMT as a theory is not so new (about 50 years) and was first used in quantum mechanics it being used in finance is a ...
18
votes
3answers
4k views

Why do expected return models and risk models use different factors?

This is a question responding to weekly topic challenge. I happen to see an interesting question from SYMMYS by Michael Kapler. I always approached expected return and risk modeling as separate ...
24
votes
5answers
17k views

What are the advantages/disadvantages of these approaches to deal with volatility surface?

I would like to know if someone could provide a summarized view of the advantages and disadvantages of the approaches on the volatility surface issues, such as: Local vol Stochastic Vol (Heston/SVI) ...
26
votes
6answers
18k views

How do you explain the volatility smile in the Black-Scholes framework?

Does anyone have an explanation for the currently naturally forming volatility smile (and the variations) in the market?
25
votes
9answers
26k views

Central Index Key (CIK) of all traded stocks

Is there a way by which I can get a list of CIK of all registered stocks at the SEC?

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