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4
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54 views

Measuring implied move priced into an event

It's well known that options price in an expected move in the underlying going into events, such as earnings announcements. I currently measure this implied move by computing the forward variance ...
4
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0answers
202 views

How to price the american options using local volatility

I have given with a surface of american option prices $C_{am}(T, K)$. From these american option prices the implied volatility surface is deduced. Now I want to find the local volatility $\sigma(s,t)$...
4
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275 views

Volatility of a stock basket

to determine the volatility of a basket of stocks, I often use the following formula: $\sigma_{basket}=\sum_{i}\sum_{j}w_i w_j \sigma_i \sigma_j \rho_{ij}$ where the $\sigma$ are the constituents' ...
4
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0answers
84 views

Why are thousand-ish-factor vendor risk models not extremely overfit and inaccurate?

Many vendor risk models have many hundreds, or even thousands of factors (many of which are highly correlated with each other). Underlying all these risk models is some sort of covariance matrix in ...
4
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0answers
85 views

Is there an arbitrage free option model that treats volatility as a deterministic function of strike?

I am trying to get a good understanding of the different models out there, and thus be able to study hedging errors, and strengths and weaknesses. My understanding of the Local Volatility model in ...
4
votes
1answer
225 views

Estimation of Radon–Nikodym derivative from historical returns and option price data

Say we have an estimate of empirical density function $f^{\mathbb{P}}_S(s)$ of historical log-returns on a stock $S$ over a 30-day period under the real-world objective measure $\mathbb{P}$. We also ...
4
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2answers
181 views

American put option. Exercise time is a random variable, calculation of expected payoff

I got an American put option, where the payoff is $V_\tau = \max(K - X_{\tau}, 0)$ and $X_{\tau}$ is the price of an underlying at the stopping time $\tau < T$. The underlying follows a standard ...
4
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0answers
84 views

Feynman-Kac to derive stochastic representation

$u_t + \frac{1}{2}\sigma^2x^2u_{xx} - \alpha + \lambda((K_d - x)^+ - u) = 0$ with terminal condition $u(T, X) = (K_m - X(T))^+$ $dX = \sigma X(t)dW_t$ $\alpha$ and $\lambda$ are constants Ok so ...
4
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1answer
218 views

Monte Carlo Method for American Call Option (No Dividends)

I tried to pricing the American Call option using "Longstaff-Schwartz" least squares method. However, I found the American call option is always lower than the Monte Carlo European call option (they ...
4
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0answers
76 views

Stochastic Long-Run Mean Instantaneous Variance in Heston Model (and extensions)?

I'm working on my dissertation in Financial Economics, focusing on the topic of Stochastic Volatility Jump Diffusion models; and I'm playing around with some ideas for model extensions. In particular, ...
4
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0answers
64 views

Why does risk-neutral price processes do not, in general, compose all arbitrage-free price processes?

I was reading reviewing my mathematical finance notes and I came across a remark I cant understand fully Remark :Contrary to discrete time models, the risk-neutral price processes do not, in general, ...
4
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1answer
563 views

Optimal Portfolio from Efficient Frontier

I found this code on plotly site, using CVXOPT to find the efficient frontier, and then, the optimal Portfolio. The optimal function is ...
4
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1answer
272 views

Bayes Theorem with change of measure

Tomas bjork- arbitrage theory in continuous time. Appendix B, proposition B41 says: The proof is not clear to me. Thanks to Gordon's comment below of $E^Q (X/G)$ being $G$ measurable, I think the ...
4
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0answers
150 views

Are Fama-Macbeth R-Squared (R2) just assymptotically correct?

I have been doing a research on comparing Fama-MacBeth and panel regression procedures. Think of it as an emerging market case for Petersen (2009) link. My research consists of a route based on full-...
4
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0answers
120 views

Zero-rebate barrier option pricing under the Heston model

I'm trying to derive an approximation for the zero-rebate barrier option under the Heston model: $$dS_t=\mu S_tdt+\sqrt{v_t}S_tdW^S_t$$ $$dv_t=\kappa(\bar{v}-v_t)dt+\eta\sqrt{v_t}dW^v_t,\quad d\langle ...
4
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0answers
77 views

Whats the big deal between volatility and the risk free rate?

I am trying to understand asset price volatility. Many of the news articles I read link how stock market volatility is linked to asset price volatility? To give an example, in Mike Mackenzie's (...
4
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0answers
85 views

Alternative Method for Determining Option-Implied pdf

As I am refining a pricing model to incorporate skew, and not just ATM volatilities, I need to create random realizations of the underlying consistent with the skew-implied pdf. When searching, one ...
4
votes
1answer
225 views

The “Universal Model” by Justin Sirignano and Rama Cont

In the nicely written article https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06917 by Justin Sirignano and Rama Cont, they explained that their model is universal and stationary. I am a bit confused about some questions. ...
4
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0answers
608 views

Understanding and simulating the jumps in Merton's Jump-Diffusion SDE?

I found this great post deriving the solution to the Merton Jump-Diffusion SDE $$S_t = S_0\exp\left(\left(\mu - \frac{\sigma^2}{2}\right)t + \sigma W_t\right)\prod_{j=0}^{N_t}V_j$$ The first part of ...
4
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1answer
156 views

Creating yield curve from exchange-listed products only?

For use in subset of my thesis, I’ve been given some exchange market data for several exchange-listed products, including Eurodollar rate futures as well US treasury futures and Fed Funds futures. I ...
4
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0answers
58 views

What are the trade offs when choosing a long term bond future to trade?

It seems that when trading long term bonds *** and choosing between the two offerings on CME one is presented with a Scylla and Charybdis decision. 1. VOLATILITY CONSISTENCY: Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond ...
4
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0answers
93 views

Reference request for research on the maximum drawdown **ratio** (NOT value)

Let's suppose the asset price process follows a Geometric Brownian motion $S_t \sim GBM(\mu, \sigma),\,t\ge 0$, and define the two process: $$ \begin{align} \text{MSF}_t &:= \max_{\tau\in[0,t]} S_\...
4
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0answers
78 views

Pricing a Double Knock In Option

I have been looking at pricing a barrier option that has payoff of your usual European Call option, $\max(S_T - K, 0)$ if the stock price exceeds a horizon $A$ and then afterwards drop under some ...
4
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0answers
98 views

Comparison of normalization methods on market returns

I am looking to use a multi-factor model to make target-return predictions. Since the factor-returns come from different scales I need to normalize first. There are different ways to normalize ...
4
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0answers
767 views

Newey-West standard errors in Fama-MacBeth regressions

I noticed that during the recent decade most of papers, which use Fama-MacBeth regressions compute Newey-West standard errors. I tried to find detailed description of this procedure in the books on ...
4
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0answers
177 views

Finite Difference with SVI Vol Model

I am attempting to implement a local vol pricing model in finite difference for equity index options. I have followed Gatheral's Lectures and fitted an SVI Model bringing me to the following local ...
4
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0answers
103 views

difference between Meucci fully flexible probability and markov regime swtiching models?

What is the difference between A. Meucci's Fully Flexible Probability (FFP) and Markov Regime Switching Models ? They seem very similar to me, FFP based on state variables that define regimes will ...
4
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0answers
111 views

What instrument to hedge derivatives' interest rate duration risk?

Our market making desk is back-to-back on FX notionals, but has a residual interest rate risk measured by DV01. Currently we are using EuroDollar futures to hedge, with each contract the DV01 is $25. ...
4
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0answers
153 views

The noise trader explanation of concave market impact

In "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand" by JP Bouchaud, JD Farmer and F Lilo the authors asserts: Noise trader models have been proposed to explain why market impact is a ...
4
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0answers
82 views

Structured Energy Option Pricing

Let's say I have an option with the following terms. This is for an energy product (ie natural gas) The contract will last for 6 months The payoff is the difference between the first of month index ...
4
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0answers
119 views

Reference Request: Control Theory Prerequisites for Quantitative Finance

Right now, even though I have a mathematical background, I did not take up control theory in college. I'm looking for an introductory text on (stochastic?) control theory as applicable to quantitative ...
4
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0answers
63 views

How can we compute copula functions by using Fast Fourier transformation?

Q1. If a copula is expressed in terms of its moment generating function then how can this copula can be computed by using Fast Fourier Transformation? Q2. Can we use copula to evaluate spread option ...
4
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0answers
266 views

Girsanov theorem and stopping time

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ be a probability space, equipped with a filtration $(\mathcal{F})_{0 \leq t \leq T}$ which is a natural filtration of a standard Brownian motion $(W_{t})_{0 \leq ...
4
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0answers
103 views

Why is market cap used to value equity instead of a self consistent solution?

My claim is that if we use the cost of equity of a levered firm via the DCF method then we make errors. Specifically if we find the firm is under-valued then in truth its more under-valued than we ...
4
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0answers
236 views

Higher Order Greeks

In studying options pricing a while back, I had learned of the higher order sensitivities of of Speed and Color. Speed was the rate at which the gamma changes with the underlying. Color is a ...
4
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0answers
1k views

Creating Factor mimicking portfolio returns

I have some trouble understanding how to create factor mimicking portfolio returns. As pointed out in this question, Tsay provides a small description, but I am unsure if my procedure is correct. In ...
4
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0answers
77 views

Spread in Option Quotes

Let's take a look at market-maker's option quote in vol terms: 8.5 / 9.5. In that example bid-ask spread equals 1.0 point of vol. Can anybody clarifying how market-maker choose amount of spread in ...
4
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0answers
119 views

How to find a probability of VIX moving from one price to another

I asked a similar question on here with a bounty. I decided to modify the question to simplify what I am trying to do. Is there a package on MATLAB or some other tool where I can find the probability ...
4
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2answers
447 views

Retrieval of MSCI factor index performance data from the web

I hope this question is on-topic. What is a convenient way to get MSCI index performance data from the web? I would be interested in daily performance data of the factor indices momentum, minvol, ...
4
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0answers
133 views

Realized volatility vs Fundamental volatility

What is the difference between the realized volatility (also called historical volatility) and the fundamental volatility?
4
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0answers
481 views

How to estimate option implied skewness and kurtosis in R

Suppose that i have data that for each day i have more than one option, either put or call. I.E. I have more than 20 put options and 20 call options for each specific day. What is the way to estimate ...
4
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0answers
2k views

Fitting GARCH(1,1) in Python for moderately large data sets

I am using the arch package in python to fit a GARCH(1,1) to fit daily S&P 500 returns from 1990 to 2017 (about 6800 data points). The code I am using is as follows: ...
4
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0answers
1k views

Meaning of cross sectional rank

This paper mentions the concept of rank which is defined as cross sectional rank. For e.g. one of the alphas (#3) is (-1 * correlation(rank(open), rank(volume), 10)) 10 is just the number of days ...
4
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0answers
352 views

binomial trees and finite differences

I was reading Tavella Randall book and their explanation why binomial trees are a particular example of finite differences. I started having additional questions. So, they way they do that is saying ...
4
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0answers
154 views

VAR FPCA analysis paper replication

I've been trying to replicate the following publication: CONSISTENT FUNCTIONAL PCA FOR FINANCIAL TIME-SERIES, Sebastian Jaimungal, Eddie K. H. Ng, 2007 but I havent been able to get the same results ...
4
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0answers
764 views

Variance of a portfolio based on log-returns

Modern Portfolio Theory Optimization Problem is based on expected linear returns and covariances of linear returns. That's said, variance and expected return of a portfolio based on linear returns r ...
4
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0answers
121 views

Volatility Parametrization Libor Market Model - Underspecified Model?

Does the volatility parametrization that I have chosen give an underspecified model? Which volatility parametrization in the Libor Market Model would suit the best for the particular case described ...
4
votes
1answer
620 views

Trader Workstation on Ubuntu cannot be connected to via the API

I am using ibPy to connect to TWS on a fairly fresh ubuntu machine. I have been successful in logging into the paper trading account and submitting buy and sell orders programatically via the ibPy ...
4
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0answers
196 views

Trading signal strength: [-1 to 1] or [predicted return]?

In the context of a backtesting engine, is it better to have strategy generate trade signals in the range from -1 to 1 or as exact predicted returns (e.g. -12% or 26%). The difference lies in how to ...
4
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0answers
1k views

Calibration of Merton's jump diffusion model

Setting In my financial engineering project I'm working on a new calibration formalism for jump-diffusion models and in particular Merton's jump diffusion model. A jump diffusion process $\{X(t), t \...

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