All Questions

Weak schemes, such as Ninomiya-Victoir or Ninomiya-Ninomiya, are typically used for discretization of stochastic volatility models such as the Heston Model. Can anyone familiar with Cubature on ...

Based on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, the risk neutral price of a contingent claim on an asset in a liquid, arbitrage free market can be determined by switching to an equivalent $Q-$ ...

I am new to asset allocation problems and have some concerns regarding the derivation of the continuous-time Kelly criterion (i.e. not the original version destined to discrete sports betting/Casino). ...

I consider pricing and risk analysis of derivatives on dividends of the members of equity indices (such as Dow Jones EuroStoxx). There are options but I focus on futures. What are common stochastic ...

In Chapter 12 of his excellent book Stochastic Volatility Modeling, Lorenzo Bergomi discusses the topic of local-stochastic volatility models (LSV). As most of you are probably aware of, the idea is ...

In Goetzmann et al.'s (2007) paper, the authors derive a "Manipulation-Proof Performance Measure" (MPPM), which is a performance measure that is impervious to performance manipulation by fund managers....

I was wondering if those who used the entropy pooling code provided by Attilio Meucci had issues with the optimization procedure (especially regarding the fminunc function in Matlab). When I stress ...

In a pure diffusion setting, it is a well known result that the volatility $\sigma_T$ of a fresh-start variance swap of maturity $T$ as seen of $t=0$ verifies \begin{align} \sigma_T^2 &= \Bbb{E}_0^...

Is there a better model than Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) for detecting regime shifts in FX rates across multiple time horizons? I am especially interested in the different aspects of the ...

I came up with an approach for measuring data snooping, or overfitting. My question is whether this approach was published and expanded-on already, or is it new? My approach relies on the observation ...

I have recently seen a paper about the Boeing approach that replaces the "normal" Stdev in the BS formula with the Stdev \begin{equation} \sigma'=\sqrt{\frac{ln(1+\frac{\sigma}{\mu})^{2}}{t}} \end{...

I know how to compute VaR with long positions using PerformanceAnalytics. What about a portfolio consisting in two equities A and B, 100 USD long positions in each, and 2 stock options for the same ...

Suppose given implied volatility quotations $\widehat{\sigma}(T_i,K_j)$ of call options on an underlying $S$ for various expiries $T_i$'s and strikes $K_j$'s. I am interested in the following problem :...

Consider the setting of mean-variance portfolio optimisation: $n$ assets with expected returns $\overline{r}_1,...,\overline{r}_n$ and standard deviations $\sigma_1,...\sigma_n$. For a certain fixed $\...

If an increasing process $X_t$ has a known Laplace transform $\mathbb{E} e^{-s X_t} = m_t(s)$, define its hitting time $\tau$ to some level $B$ to be $$ \tau = \inf\{ u > 0 : X_u \geq B \}. $$ Can ...

In the Ansatz section of Jim Gatheral's book Volatility Surface (page 32), he assumes $$\mathbb E[x_s|x_T]=x_T\frac{\hat w_s}{\hat w_T}$$ where $\hat w_t:=\int_0^t \hat v_s ds$ is the expected total ...

I am using the Granger causality test to measure the lag between pairs of time series where it is already apparent that one is following the other. So I am not expecting this test to tell me whether ...

In the paper Measuring Equity Risk with Option-implied Correlations, Buss and Vilkov replace the standard CAPM beta: $$ \beta_{iM,t}^P=\frac{\sigma_{i,t}^P\sum_{j=1}^N w_j \sigma_{j,t}^P\rho_{ij,t}^P}...

I have a few basic questions on block bootstrapping on a financial time series ('TS'). Assuming my trade universe consists of 10 stocks, I would like to create a set of synthetic prices for all 10 ...

I have issues with this problem: Let $\{X_t, t\in \Bbb N\}$ be a 2-state stationary Markov chain, with transition $M$ (and $M(1,2)\neq 0 \neq M(2,1)$), let $\{W_t, t\in \Bbb N\}$ be a strong Gaussian ...

I think option chains are not represented in the best way. With more and more options products coming out and trading on the various exchanges, I see vendors struggling to keep up with a good way to ...

In Basel III the CVA VaR “is restricted to changes in the counterparties’ credit spreads and does not model the sensitivity of CVA to changes in other market factors, such as changes in the value of ...

I am following an article by Mohamed Elsaiid (MFTA) about Volatility-Based Envelopes - a quite new technical indicator he has introduced, that is being used by Bloomberg. My goal is to get a simple ...

I am considering two risky assets following the usual correlated GBM given by $$\frac{\mathrm{d}S^{(i)}_t}{S^{(i)}_t}=\mu_i\mathrm{d}t+\sigma_i\mathrm{d}W^{(i)}_t,\quad i\in\{1,2\}$$ with $$\mathrm{d}...

I have a portfolio ${\mathbf P}$ made up of positions $n_i$ in each of $N$ securities, which I'm assuming are jointly normally distributed with means $x_i$, and covariance matrix ${\mathbf M}$. ...

I've run an ARMA(1, 1)-GARCH(1, 1) model with normal density on log returns for twelve stocks. I computed the one-step-ahead out of sample forecast for daily volatility on a rolling windows for 500 ...

Bridgewater Associates send out Daily Observations to their clients, but I haven't found many traces of these publications online. The series started some 40 years ago by Ray Dalio, and there're just ...

Knowing the Characteristic function $\Phi_{T,t} = \mathbb{E} [ e^{i u S_T} | S_t, V_t]$ (or equivalently, the Laplace transform) of an affine process, it's possible to know the distribution of the ...

I currently use the following process for bootstrapping a multivariate time series in R: Determine block sizes - run the function b.star in the np package which produces a block size for each series ...

For the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model $$\text{d}r_t = a(b-r_t)\text{d}t+\sigma\sqrt{r_t}\text{d}W_t$$ the condition (referred to as "Feller condition") $$2ab\geq\sigma^2$$ ensures that the solution is ...

I am interested in articles/strategies related to portfolio and inventory management for market makers and to management of order cancellation, updates of order, etc. Most of the strategies from ...

I am trying to determine the Hurst exponent of a simple Brownian motion, however, I seem to get a result that differs from 0.5. I am following the instructions given on the Wikipedia-page, and here is ...

I want to study if the odds of an up or down day in a forex pairs is 50-50. I just count the total number of up and down days in X years and compare it with the total days. The results are very ...

I have an empirical model for the dynamics of futures prices in a particular market that I have implemented using a long series of the front five contracts. (I account for the roll in my model.) I ...

Hedging American Swaption Hello, I priced an American swaption using Black model with swap rates diffusion to find the european (call) price at t. $$ C_t = (\delta \sum_{j=n+1}^{M+1} Z_t^{T_j})[R(t,...

I have calculated weights of selected assets in a market-neutral portfolio (presumably with min variance) using PCA and simple data covariance matrix. The question is : It is obvious that Cov Matrix ...

Let X and Y be two GBM’s, they have each a univariate log-normal distribution for some time t, that is $X_t\sim{LnN(µ_x, σ^2_x)}$, $Y_t\sim{LnN(µ_y, σ^2_y})$ and $Z_t=[X_t,Y_t]\sim{ MvLnN(μ, Σ)}$ ...

assume I have following delta-term vol data from broker: ...

Background: Kupiec P. in 1995, published paper "Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Management Models" on Journal of Derivatives, v3, P73-84, it's a Unconditional Coverage Tests designe for ...

The collateral choice option problem has been formulated in e.g. Fujii and Takahashi (2011), Piterbarg (2012) or Antonov and Piterbarg (2013), as the computation of an expectation of the following ...

I am reading about american option pricing and the variational inequality, and the book I am reading states, in the derivation of the variational inequality, the following is a martingale: $$M_s = U(s,...

I found this great post deriving the solution to the Merton Jump-Diffusion SDE $$S_t = S_0\exp\left(\left(\mu - \frac{\sigma^2}{2}\right)t + \sigma W_t\right)\prod_{j=0}^{N_t}V_j$$ The first part of ...

I am studying the paper Arbitrage-Free Smoothing of the Implied Volatility Surface, from Matthias R. Fengler (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6978470.pdf). The problem I want to solve is much simpler ...

TL;DR: if you're a retail investor and you systematically sell long-term vertical spreads while staying Delta-neutral, your main risk comes from Vega and the Gamma of opening gaps that can throw you ...

Problem Statement Trying to predict how bond auction result ( in terms of yield ) is different from its forecast (the when-issued yield ). More info:http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/...

How to calculate the exposure of a recoupon swap (when the MTM of an i.r. swap is settled and the fixed rate is reset to the prevailing swap rate for the residual maturity). It's used to reduce the ...

Say bank A buys a credit portfolio "B" (e.g. corporate loans or retail mortgage, ...) from bank B. Bank A fulfills the the requirements of CRR (capital requirement regulation) for its existing ...

I use Quantstrat heavily for strategy research and optimisation. I have two Python developers about to join my team and would like to use it as an opportunity to diversify our research tools so we are ...

Hopefully, this is an acceptable question in this forum, even if it isn't analytically focused. As part of an effort to analyse the effect of different option trade structures on a portfolio, I need ...

I am looking at the CIR++ model which is described in interest rate models by Brigo et al, and was wondering on how to actually simulate from this model. The model reads $$r_t=x_t+\phi(t),$$ where $...