# All Questions

1,209 questions
Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
8k views

### What exactly is meant by “microstructure noise”?

I see that term tossed around a lot, in articles relating to HFT, and ultra high frequency data. It says at higher frequencies, smaller intervals, microstructure noise is very dominant. What is ...
36k views

### How to check if a timeseries is stationary?

I'm using KPSS Method to check if the series is stationary, but I would also like to use another test to confirm if the series is stationary or not, what method coudl I use?
7k views

### Volatility pumping in practice

The fascinating thing about volatility pumping (or optimal growth portfolio, see e.g. here) is that here volatility is not the same as risk, rather it represents opportunity. Additionally it is a ...
7k views

### Algorithm to fit AR(1)/GARCH(1,1) model of log-returns

I am fitting numerically an AR(1)/GARCH(1,1) process to index and stock log-returns, $r_t=\log(P_t/P_{t-1})$, where $P_t$ is the price at time $t$, and thus far am not clear on where the observed log ...
11k views

### Risk Neutral Probability

I read that an option prices is the expected value of the payout under the risk neutral probability. Intuitively why is the expectation taken with respect to risk neutral as opposed to the actual ...
3k views

### Model Validation Criteria

Let's say I have a brand new fancy model on some asset class (calibration porcedure included over a set of vanilla options) in which I truly believe I made a step forward comparing to existing ...
13k views

### Probability of touching

For a vanilla option, I know that the probability of the option expiring in the money is simply the delta of the option... but how would I calculate the probability, without doing monte carlo, of the ...
2k views

### Pricing Treasury futures

I've recently learned that at the delivery of Treasury futures the short side can decide which of the $n$ Treasury bonds (with relevant maturities) to deliver. If the short side chooses to deliver the ...
16k views

### Discrete returns versus log returns of assets

There have been similar posts here already but nevertheless I find the question worth posting: why do some people claim that log returns of assets are more suitable for statistics than discrete ...
5k views

### How does one estimate the probability of the Fed increasing its benchmark rate based on Fed funds futures?

How was this 67% probability calculated from Fed funds futures? Fed funds futures show a 67 percent chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate by year-end from virtually zero, ...
65k views

### How to compute the implied probability of default from a CDS spread?

I have two tasks: Given country's CDS spread draw implied probability of default. Given probability of default calculate CDS spread. If possible, refer to any papers.
15k views

### Fama-Macbeth second step confusion

I am confused on how to run the second step of the Fama Macbeth (1973) two step procedure. I have monthly stock returns and monthly Fama-French factors, for around 10,000 stocks. This creates an ...
10k views

### Carry calculation on an interest rate swap

I was hoping that I can get help on a simple yet not so straight forward topic : Looking at valuing the costs of holding an IRS in the books this would entail marketed-to-market due to price ...
16k views

### Bachelier model call option pricing formula

Does anybody have the Bachelier model call option pricing formula for $r > 0$? All the references I've read assume $r = 0$. I don't speak French, so I can't read Bachelier's original paper.
I am trying to model $C(K)$, the price of the call $C$ as a function of strike $K$. Because this is tied to Prob ITM - and in fact the probability density function of that particular expiration (https:...