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7
votes
1answer
595 views

Up and Down days in GBPUSD and a Filter

I want to study if the odds of an up or down day in a forex pairs is 50-50. I just count the total number of up and down days in X years and compare it with the total days. The results are very ...
7
votes
0answers
310 views

Pricing an American call under the CGMY model

I am pricing an American call under the CGMY model ($0 < Y < 1$) with strike $K$ at grid point $(x_i,\tau_j)$ where $x_i=x_{min}+i\,\Delta x $ for $i=0,1,...N$ and $\Delta x=\frac{x_{max}-x_{min}...
7
votes
0answers
1k views

Explanation or implementation of Ledoit-Wolf estimator (without math packages)

I have calculated weights of selected assets in a market-neutral portfolio (presumably with min variance) using PCA and simple data covariance matrix. The question is : It is obvious that Cov Matrix ...
7
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0answers
257 views

Applications of distance correlation

This question mentions distance correlation. Where has this concept been applied to financial data and provided new insight? Do you know any examples or references?
6
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0answers
237 views

Feller Condition (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross) source

For the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model $$\text{d}r_t = a(b-r_t)\text{d}t+\sigma\sqrt{r_t}\text{d}W_t$$ the condition (referred to as "Feller condition") $$2ab\geq\sigma^2$$ ensures that the solution is ...
6
votes
0answers
61 views

Formal proof market incompleteness under jump diffusion

Does anyone have formal proof of markets incompleteness under jump diffusion ? I am familiar with the intuitive approach as mentioned in Tankov (delta), yet I am looking for a formal approach and ...
6
votes
0answers
96 views

Produce volatility smile/skew with G2++ model

Suppose I have a G2++ short rate model: $$r(t)=x(t)+y(t)+\phi(t), \quad r(0)=r_0$$ with $$dx(t)=-ax(t)dt+\sigma dW_1(t), \quad x(0)=0$$ $$dy(t)=-bx(t)dt+\eta dW_2(t), \quad y(0)=0$$ $$d\langle W_1,W_2\...
6
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0answers
50 views

Quantitative and regulatory aspects of portfolio integration in IRB credit portfolios

Say bank A buys a credit portfolio "B" (e.g. corporate loans or retail mortgage, ...) from bank B. Bank A fulfills the the requirements of CRR (capital requirement regulation) for its existing ...
6
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0answers
109 views

Estimation of right truncated poisson process

I have following problem: Imagine I generate large number of homogenous poisson process sample paths (by sample path I mean a sequence of arrival times $\tau_i$ all with the same intensity. However ...
6
votes
0answers
108 views

Mathematical Representation of Adaptive Markets Hypothesis

It has been about 13 years since Andrew Lo published The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. It provides valid criticism to Efficient Markets Hypothesis and brings lots of innovation over it. Unfortunately, ...
6
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0answers
359 views

How do you actually solve a stochastic HJB equation in practice?

I've read a number of recent papers on market making. Nearly all of the more recent papers focus on defining the problem in terms of a state and action space, deriving the relevant HJB equations and ...
6
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0answers
298 views

What are the essential characteristics of asset prices?

I think the question has already been asked about stylized facts of asset returns; this question regards the essential characteristics and normative assumptions used to evaluate asset prices. I.e., ...
6
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0answers
174 views

What is the probability of ruin of a Geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process?

I would like to calculate the probability of ruin (or, default), i.e. $$\text{Pr}(\tau<T),$$ where $\tau$ is the default time and $X_t$ follows the Geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process $$...
6
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0answers
1k views

Gamma Imbalance / Exposure

I am currently writing my thesis about the lack of volatility / changing market structure we see nowadays on the financial market. I believe an important factor in this development is the delta-...
6
votes
2answers
845 views

Risk neutrality correction for Monte Carlo Bootstrapping according to PRIIP regulation for products of category III

The PRIIP (packaged products) regulation prescribes Monte Carlo bootstrapping simulation for calculation of VaR for products of category III (non-linearly leveraged products). The idea is based on ...
6
votes
0answers
251 views

implied volatility and strike price

Assume for simplicity that the expiration time of an option is $1$ the initial stock price is $1$ and there is no dividend yield and the risk free return is $0$. How is it possible to show that the ...
6
votes
1answer
205 views

Non-contractual accounts behavioural study

I need to carry a non-contractual accounts behavoiural study for a bank. The objective is to estimate core/non core ratios and then bucket and ftp them. Any recipe where to start? I have 3yrs of ...
6
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0answers
156 views

Expectation over Markov Process and discrete Ito integral (discrete stochastic calculus)

I am doing a research on communication protocol design. A file of $n$ blocks is transferred in several rounds and $R_i$ denotes the number of blocks received in the $i$-th round. The sender sends $n-...
6
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0answers
537 views

Callable bond price sensitivity to Hull-White volatility changes

I'm using classic Hull-White model for short term interest rate dynamic: $$dr(t)=[\theta(t)-\alpha(t)r(t)]dt+\sigma(t)dW(t)$$ (Notation is quite intuitive, anyway I am using the same as Wikipedia ...
6
votes
0answers
120 views

What kind of errors arise when I fit ARMA(1,1) to data generated from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process?

As far as I know estimates of parameters of ARMA(1,1) are asymptotically optimal when fitted to data from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process, and only their variance increase, so when we assume large ...
6
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0answers
146 views

The concept of an incomplete market

While skeeming the relevant literature and web-sites I noticed that mostly the concept of the incomplete market is reduced to the following statement "A market is incomplete if there are more ...
6
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0answers
323 views

How are quants able to verify whether their calculated prices are any good

This question is related to the discussion on Model Validation Criteria However it appeard to be very high level to me and I would like to go more into detail. Not working at a pricing desk the ...
6
votes
0answers
765 views

Shrinkage Estimator for Newey-West Covariance Matrix

I like to apply the Newey-West covariance estimator for portfolio optmization which is given by $$ \Sigma = \Sigma(0) + \frac12 \left (\Sigma(1) + \Sigma(1)^T \right), $$ where $\Sigma(i)$ is the lag ...
6
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0answers
389 views

Stress testing covariance

Going one level beyond stressed scenarios, to parameters e.g. for a VaR measure: what are the most common approaches for stressing a covariance/correlation matrix, especially taking portfolio exposure ...
6
votes
0answers
1k views

Asymmetric Volatility Modeling (Interpretation)

I am currently writing a paper on asymmetric volatility modeling of brent, gold, silver, wheat, soybean and corn from 1986-2012 and divided them into 4 sub-sample periods (i.e. 1986-1991, 1991-1997, ...
6
votes
0answers
199 views

Arbitrage free price of a derivative when the price is collected over the lifetime of the derivative

Let $X_t$ be an american style financial derivative with random exercise time $T$ where $t$ and $T$ belongs to some finite set $A$. Buying this derivative requires the buyer to pay $p_t$ up to time $T$...
6
votes
0answers
979 views

Is there a standard method of scaling alpha forecasts to t-cost estimates?

Given a set of monthly alpha forecasts (i.e. standardized z-scores from a multi-factor return model) and a non-linear market impact model (or more specifically, its piecewise-linear approximation), is ...
6
votes
0answers
217 views

How companies choose earnings release dates, & effect on Implied Volatility

A company's earnings release date significantly affects weekly or monthly option prices/implied volatility. For companies that typically release earnings on the cusp of monthly options expiration, ...
6
votes
0answers
421 views

Taking into account the correlation in Barrier options on a Basket

In a Barrier option (where the contract cancels when the underlying hits the barrier) I succesfully found the way to compute the probability of a single underlying touching the barrier (with constant ...
6
votes
1answer
264 views

Significance testing of average returns from Sharpe ratio

I'm aware that one way to do significance testing on a strategy is based on the sampling distribution of its Sharpe (see, e.g., Lo, 2002 and Opdyke, 2008). However, it appears to me that there's ...
6
votes
1answer
2k views

Commerical delayed stock quote feed that is redistributable?

I'm looking for a commercial delayed quote feed that will allow us to distribute delayed US stock market quotes to the public (ie. that will allow us to display US delayed quotes on the Internet). We ...
5
votes
0answers
124 views

First principles in Finance

Every so often I hear people referring to the term "first principles". It seems to me that this term does not necessarily have a universally accepted connotation in Finance. Here is the general ...
5
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0answers
63 views

How to explain the asymmetry of vanilla Volga?

I've plotted the charts of Volga of Vanilla Call/Put using finite difference method, and found they are the same, and an asymmetrical shape of observed for both. Any intuitive way to explain the ...
5
votes
0answers
132 views

monte carlo simulation

I'm a graduate student working on a real options research problem suggested to me by my advisor. I'm not looking for a solution, but I'd like to know about the feasibility of numerically solving the ...
5
votes
1answer
112 views

Discrete vs continuous

When pricing equity futures with the cost of carry model; When do you use continuous compounding and when do you just use discrete compounding? And why
5
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0answers
380 views

Calculating dealer gamma imbalance/exposure for an options strip

Have seen this being done for years (primarily by J.P. Morgan and a couple other bank research desks) and am attempting to re-create for my own personal research. I’ve read the forums on here but no ...
5
votes
0answers
80 views

Distribution of portfolio values with constant spending rate

If your portfolio is invested in an asset that follows a geometric Brownian motion, and you withdraw a constant dollar amount at the beginning of each year, is there an approximate analytical ...
5
votes
0answers
108 views

Implied Funding/Borrow Costs in Short-Dated ETF Option Prices

I'm struggling with some anomalous behavior in an analysis I'm running and was hoping for some advice/insights. I'm attempting to extract the implied funding/borrow costs from ETF option prices (say ...
5
votes
0answers
147 views

SABR Question: Why does the market take the beta parameter as a constant?

SABR Question Why does the market take the $\beta$ parameter as a "constant"? I see most brokers quoting SABR parameters nowadays. I've seen many banks use $\beta$=0.5 as a rule. I've seen quants ...
5
votes
0answers
53 views

Expected turnover from rebalancing

If you have a target weights for N assets with monthly returns that are drawn from a multivariate normal distribution with known means and covariances, is there an exact or approximate analytical ...
5
votes
0answers
151 views

Merton's portfolio problem with constraints

Suppose the investor can invest in a Black-Scholes market with one risky asset $S$ with drift $\alpha$ and volatility $\sigma$ and a riskless asset $B$ with a riskless rate of return $r$, and the ...
5
votes
2answers
400 views

Cointegration and Ratio Pair Trading

I'm having some confusion doing Engle-Granger Cointegration test and then trade the ratio. Methodology: Run an OLS fit for A and B price time series without a constant. Therefore, $\hat{Y} = \gamma \...
5
votes
1answer
178 views

No-arbitrage in term-structure models

I am a bit confused about what the implication of "no-arbitrage" in popular term struchture models (such as affine term struchtre models or HJM models) are? Is it solely a restriction on the cross-...
5
votes
1answer
430 views

Risk management tools for long term Gamma/Vega sellers subject to margin calls

TL;DR: if you're a retail investor and you systematically sell long-term vertical spreads while staying Delta-neutral, your main risk comes from Vega and the Gamma of opening gaps that can throw you ...
5
votes
0answers
188 views

Implementing Hanson`s LMSR with Limit Orderbooks

I am trying to integrate Hanson's LMSR (see (see logarithmic market scoring rule)into an order-book with traditional bid/ask-limit orders (in KDB+/Q). The following functions define the basic LMSR ...
5
votes
0answers
46 views

Martingale property of inhomogenous poisson process

I have found this martingale property for an inhomogenous poisson process with intensity $\lambda(s)$ which I don't know how to prove. The text itself advises: "proceed using Monotone class theorem". ...
5
votes
0answers
460 views

Gyöngy Theorem Proof

Can you please point me to a publicly available text that discusses the proof for the Gyöngy Theorem? Gyöngy, I. (1986), “Mimicking the One-Dimensional Marginal Distributions of Processes Having an ...
5
votes
0answers
237 views

Dupire's calibration

I'm trying to implement a method for calibrating the local volatility model (Dupire's one). I'm working on the paper from Andreasen and Huge : Volatility interpolation (SSRN). Is this considered to be ...
5
votes
0answers
239 views

Bayesian strategy selection

I have N strategies/signals that I would like to allocate to. I want to estimate an estimate of future performance based off of recent realized performance (momentum of strategies per se - e.g. ...
5
votes
0answers
123 views

Pricing and hedging of vanilla options based on non-tradable underlying

Consider a non-tradable stock index $S$ which satisfies: $dS_t=\mu S_tdt+\sigma S_tdW_t$ and a risk-free asset $B$. I want to price an European Call option with the payoff $C_T=max(S_T-K,0)$. The ...

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