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Vitomir
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All what you have highlighted is well posed.

It makes sense to use conditional PD values applied to the remaining balance.

In fact, the expected loss is indeed a measure to understand how much exposure one has to the default of the counterpart. Therefore, if a counterpart as paid out a part of the debt, then the only default risk exposure is on the stake not paid yet, i.e. the outstanding debt.

In general, you should differentiate two approaches in credit risk: default risk and mark-to-market risk. The first is solely the probability of default, the second takes also into consideration the changes in the credit merit of the counterpart, which are well described by rating changes. That is why you should use conditional PDs. In the case of calculating the EL - which is a default measure - you want to consider the PD coming from a filtration (i.e. you want to take into account that the PD may change in response to changes of various factors affecting the PD - systematic factors, as well as idiosincratic ones), therefore makes sense to look at conditional PDs.

When it comes to Credit risk, I like this paper: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247333419_Ratings_migration_and_the_business_cycle

Vitomir
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