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The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

9 votes
4 answers
2k views

Why should there be an equity risk premium?

Yes, investors want to earn more than risk free but do they always get it? Or does the risk premium just fill the gap - sometimes positive sometimes negative? … Sometimes stocks are just falling and there is risk and no premium. What do you think? …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
7 votes
3 answers
250 views

Where to find good notations to teach investment portfolio maths?

I don't know whether this question is in order here. I do a bit of teaching and I am preparing my own notes but I thought that his should not be necessary. In which book/pdf on the web can we find a …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
6 votes
Accepted

Calculate VaR for a liabilty taking a exponential distribution?

The VaR of level $\alpha$ a loss random variable (the bigger the worse) is the quantity $q$ such that the loss is bigger with probability $1-\alpha$. Thus we need a $q$ such that $$ P[L>q] = 1-\alp …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
5 votes
Accepted

how can we know the residual return will be uncorrelated with the market return

Let us ignore the riskless rate for simplicity of the presentation. If you have (historical or simulated) return series $r_i$ for the portfolio and $r_i^M$ for the market, then the beta is the OLS reg …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
5 votes

questions on VAR manipulation

First, I am quite sure that this is a typo and it should be $$ 0 < VaR_1 < VaR_0 $$ then $$ -VaR_0 < -VaR_1 $$ and the plot is correct. Second, the put strategy does not change only the expected pro …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
3 votes

PD and LGD for ECL calculations needs to be time dependent?

I assume that you calculate ECL in the context of IFRS9 -correct? market practice often follows the following approach: estimate a TTC PD/LGD (TTC = through the cycle). This corresponds to your lifet …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
3 votes

Sharpe Ratio and time spent in loss

Looking at sharpe-ratio in an ex-post way you only divide average return (above risk free) by volatility. Volatlity can have many patterns. A draw-down is something path dependent. …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
3 votes

Why is variance problematic as a risk measure?

The next question is what the aim of your risk measures is. … portfolio B or my portfolio is riskier or less risky if I add/remove a tiny position in stock S then I would say: Variance is (of course) as fine as standard deviation (volatility); a Gaussian Value-at-Risk
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
3 votes
1 answer
347 views

Risk and Reward in practice

As a risk manager I often have to tell portfolio managers to reduce risk (e.g. due to VaR limits or exposure limits). … What do you tell risk takers in order to tame their risk appetite? Where do you reference to in order to underpin your opinion? …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
2 votes

How to determine portion of portfolio's risks from components?

You can do 2 things: incremental risk: Calculate the volatility with the asset and with the asset replaced by cash. … The difference gives you the (non-linear) incremental risk contribution of the asset. …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
2 votes
Accepted

How to Calculate Minimun total Risk?

I assume that risk it measured here in volatility. … Thus we should invest all our wealth in stock A and the minimal risk is 25%. If the volatolity of B were smaller it could reduce risk to invest in B. …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
2 votes

Asynchronous Data Across Time Zones - RiskMetrics

as vanguard2k points out the prolem is dealt with e.g. in Scaling portfolio volatility and calculating risk contributions in the presence of serial cross-correlations and references therein. … But in my mind using daily data (and handling the effects described above) is superior in ex-ante risk analysis and portfolio optimization (more reactive, more data points). …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
2 votes

Convex risk measure and a coherent risk measure?

We define a convex risk measure as $$ \rho( \lambda X_1 + (1-\lambda) X_2) \le \lambda \rho( X_1 ) + (1-\lambda) \rho(X_2), $$ for $\lambda \in(0,1) $. … Thus a coherent risk measure is convex. The reverse is not true in general. …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
1 vote

Hedging using relative values

There are two things: First: You have one stock of $B$ (worth \$30) and the calculation tells you to short 1.14 stocks of $A$. Of course you can only short whole stocks. So you would have to decide w …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k
1 vote
Accepted

Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

You can do the following: For each $i$ in $1$ to number of Mont-Carlo runs $K$ simulate the number of losses $N_i$ simulate $N_i$ many loss-sizes $X_{i,1},\ldots,X_{i,N_i}$ calculate $L_i = \sum_{j= …
Richi Wa's user avatar
  • 13.8k

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