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A probability expresses quantitatively how likely an event is to occur. We often encounter probabilities as conditional probabilities which express how likely an event is to occur in light of certain (given) information.

5 votes

KMV-Merton Probabilties of Default vs Moody's EDF

understand that Moody's uses an empirical distribution while KMV uses a normal distribution in order to calculate these probabilities KMV doesn't use a normal distribution to map distance to default to a probability … By a strict structural interpretation, $EDF$, the expected default frequency, meaning the probability of observing the firm to default within one year, ought to equal the normal probability $EDF_t …
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