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On average half the time you will win 0.5 times your current bankroll and half the time you will lose 0.5 times your current bankroll. Over N plays your expected growth will be (0.5)^(N/2)(1.5)^(N/2) and you will tend to lose money over time and in the limit since 0.5*1.5 = 0.75 < 1. This happens because gaining and losing 50% are not equivalent. Think ...


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Increased volatility towards the event start is definitely from increased order flow. There are some papers specifically on "prediction markets", the ones with practical applications are on market making which I suspect is generally a loss-making operation conducted by the exchanges themselves when a market is opened. Given the short-time periods and small ...


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Have a read of the paper posted here: http://prescientmuse.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/mixed-martial-arts-fight-outcome.html It pertains to MMA but expounds on research method and what a profitable strategy may look like. I wouldn't suggest liquid sports at all. Liquidity will imply often imply prices which correct quickly to represent the best guess at the ...


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By what mechanism do b and c change? I see two options: They move by market forces, since if at any instant a+b+c<1 people will take this arbitrage opportunity which will push b and c up. The probabilities sum to one rule is enforced 'externally' by the exchange >through some mechanism. I am interested in how such a mechanism could work. If ...


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I have studied what happens in the Betfair horse racing markets in the few minutes prior to the off and without knowing anything about racing or markets for that matter I trade buying and selling fast and making small profits/losses as I go. The key is discipline, accept small losses when they occur and NEVER follow a trade into play. Although I trade only ...


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Timeserieses of pre-play betting markets look quite different than classical stock markets or forex-like stuff. Monitoring exchanges like betfair, the volume kind of skyrockets in the last 15 minutes before the start. The long hours before the race start there are basically no bets matched and the bid-ask-spread is enormous. In the last minutes there is ten ...


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