Actually, all investments, retirement accounts, mutual fund accounts, utility bills, supermarket price listings are reported or stated in the Constant Numeraire, which may also be called Dollar-kept-under-the-mattress Numeraire
It is the most widely (indeed the only) Numeraire used in real life.
How nice it would be if my retirement account or mutual fund ...
1=> Does anyone have a suggestion to determine a trend correctly.
My answer is in general and an opinion. Hong Kong Stock Exchange is third largest market behind Tokyo and Shanghai and most volatile market in the world. It is related to Singapore, Shanghai and Shenzhen, Korea, Taiwan and other famous Asian markets.
For rough overall trends, ...
I think part of the problem may be a lack of a formal definition for what constitutes the trend. At least it lacks a definition of some kind of statistical property. (I was thinking autocorrelation but then realised that a random walk could also look as if it were trending)
I am not convinced that the MACD indicator is the best way to do this. I would ...
Sure, if you can find a bank willing to create this and sell it to you.
Otherwise, barring another market participant, your best bet is to try to convince the index owner to license it to an ETF provider for retail distribution.
Current USDTRY is about 5.7. The jargon means this: The strike of a 2 month USD Call/ TRY put corresponding to a delta of 0.05 is 8, and it costs 0.6% of USD notional.
TRY to plunge is what might be implied!
This has nothing to do with Black Scholes or any other stock evolution model. Although they are interesting examples.
The fact that prices from european derivatives are martingales comes from the market completeness, a more general assumption in asset pricing.
Market completeness implies (by the second theorem of asset pricing) that any european derivative ...