Hot answers tagged

18

Here is a short list (to be edited and improved - community wiki) : Standard brownian motion (also called Wiener process) for which: $d\, W_t \sim \mathcal N(0, \sqrt{d t})$ Geometric brownian motion, used in the Black-Scholes model (1973): $d\,X_t = \mu X_t\,dt + \sigma X_t\,dW_t$ Constant elasticity of variance ("CEV") model (1975): $d\,X_t=\mu X_t dt + \...


11

In January 2020, Matteo Aquilina, Eric Budish, and Peter O’Neill from Britain's Financial Conduct Authority published this study, illustrating how "low latency" market participants can make money off of others. I suggest you read it, because it's very clearly written for the general public, and explains how markets work. I will first oversimplify ...


8

The formula $F^X(t,T) = E_t^d\left(X_T \right)$, under the domestic risk-neutral measure, is problematic. Note that, at time $t$, the forward exchange rate $F^X(t,T)$, for maturity $T$, is the exchange rate such that the payoff $X_T-F^X(t,T)$ has a zero value at $t$. That is, \begin{align*} B_t^d E_d\left(\frac{X_T-F^X(t,T)}{B_T^d} \mid \mathcal{F}_t\right)=...


8

An FX Swap can be described as "borrowing in one currency and lending in another". When put this way it is clear that it has something to do with interest rates in the two currencies. You will be very happy if the i.r. in the currency borrowed rises and the i.r. in the currency lent falls the day after you do the deal, because you will have locked in more ...


8

Be careful of your rate conventions! The issue here is that all your rates are expected to be in units of domestic vs 1 unit of foreign. So for example USDCAD is 1.3347, you really need to be using 1/1.3347 = 0.749 USD per 1 CAD. So, your inputs need to be $$ \begin{align} S &= 1 / 1.3347 \\ X &= 1 / 1.3338 \\ R_d &= 0.75\% \\ R_f &= 0.50\% ...


8

An FX swap exposes the user to a risk that is intrinsic to the interest rate differentials and supply and demand factors of one currency relative to another, but fundamentally there is negligible exposure to the spot FX rate, since one essentially agrees to a buy price and a sell price separated by a fixed amount. A forward FX contract is an agreement to ...


8

Let’s say the settlement period is T+2, and you made a deal on the 8/10/2018. The spot date would be 10/10/2018 (assuming no holidays!), that’s when the physical exchange would happen. Now if you don’t want physical delivery, then tomorrow (9/10/18) you can use T/N (tommorow/next) swap to delay the physical delivery by one day, T/N is essentially swap ...


8

You would definitely have some advantage. High Frequency Trading is all about speed and the fastest traders wins. Oftentimes, winner takes all. The blog Sniper in Mahwah & friends digs into the state of the art of inter-exchange communication. The current state of art for reliable broadband connections are microwave dishes between major trading hubs such ...


7

Because the day count of your inquired date is 366 days: Hkd daycount is act/365 therefore 366/365 Usd daycount is act/360 therefore 366/360 $$ \frac{7.7487}{7.7587} = \frac{1+r_2(\frac{366}{365})}{1+0.00965×\frac{366}{360}} $$ Solving for $r_2 = 0.8486$.


7

Ask minus bid has nothing to do with the mid price - it is the spread. Generally you see a collection of bid/offer orders resting on different price levels. In the simplest case, you just see one bid at price $p_b$ and one offer at price $p_a$. In this case the mid price is $$ p_m = \frac{p_a + p_b}{2} $$ That's all there is to it - you don't need to "...


7

What happened was totally unexpected end of peg against the euro @ 1.2CHF regime that Swiss central bank aborted. See some articles about it. As far as I know nobody in the markets knew, there was no indication whatsoever.. In terms of management, I'm afraid lots of people got heavy losses, particularly banks (Austria, Poland, Hungary) - lots of Swiss loans ...


7

The top chart is called a 'candle stick chart' or 'OHLC candlestick' or 'OHLC bar chart' http://multicharts.com/trading-charts When the price goes down during a time interval (from O to C) the box is filled in orange, when the price goes up it is green bordered with black inside. The exact colors are a matter of taste, as long as they are clearly different ...


7

Dukascopy offers historical tick data. Through their historical data website you can download what you want, but registration is required, and lots of manual clicking. However if you are comfortable with scripting, you can directly download the tick data yourself. The URL pattern is http://www.dukascopy.com/datafeed/{currency}/{year}/{month}/{day}/{hour}...


6

The time to expiry is required, but it's included in the inputs: the two discounts $e^{-rT}$ and $e^{-qT}$ and the standard deviation $\sigma\sqrt{T}$. You might argue it could be documented more clearly, and I might agree with you.


6

Today (1 day after the fact) the following headline appeared in the Financial Times: "September Fed rate lift-off put in doubt, Fallout from China’s currency move turns market mood". If true, this would certainly explain why the USD declined (i.e. the interest rate rise that everyone expected has been postponed). However, in my experience it is very hard to ...


6

In #2, you can use FX forwards to convert your JPY cashflows to USD but it is more common in practice to use a cross-currency swap for this purpose. Indeed, the advantage of the latter is that it allows you to keep the nominal of your synthetic USD bond constant because the final exchange in the swap is done at FX spot (not forward), and the difference is ...


6

Let $X_t^{gbp\rightarrow usd}$ and $X_t^{chf\rightarrow usd}$ be the respective exchanges rates from one unit of GBP and CHF to units of USD. Depending on the option contractual specification, the payoff in CHF at maturity $T$ can have a form of either \begin{align*} \frac{\left(X_T^{gbp\rightarrow usd} -K\right)^+}{X_T^{chf\rightarrow usd}}, \tag{1} \end{...


6

The answer given is mostly wrong: @msitt uses a convoluted way without explicitly mentioning it (put-call symmetry) to actually give the price of a USD Put, not of a USD Call as requested. Here is a more direct and correct approach. I will consider, as mentioned by @FinanceGuyThatCantCode, that the volatility convention is ACT/365, which is standard. I ...


6

Yahoo has changed their site structure. The new download URLs look like this: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v7/finance/download/MSFT?period1=1463461200&period2=1494910800&interval=1d&events=history&crumb=lHxk.yfuuzZ These links originate from pages like this: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history?period1=1463461200&period2=...


6

In FX world, the ATM strike is the delta-neutral strike, that is, the absolute delta values of a call and the corresponding put are the same. Moreover, the delta can be premium adjusted or not depending on the particular currency pair. See the linked paper as mentioned by @AntoineConze. For AUD/USD, the delta is not premium adjusted, and then the delta-...


6

$$F = Spot \times e^{(\text{local interest rate} - \text{foreign interest rate}) \times T}$$ where $Spot$ = AUD per dollars. $T$ is the time to maturity of the contract (in years). So for example if the contract expires in 1 year and a half, $T = 18/12 = 1.5$.


6

Let $P^d$ and $P^f$ denote the respective USD and EUR risk-neutral measures. We assume that, under the USD risk-neutral measure, \begin{align*} dS_t = S_t \Big(\big(r^d-r^f \big)dt +\sigma dW_t \Big), \end{align*} where $r^d$ and $r^f$ denote respectively the USD and EUR interest rates, $\sigma$ is the constant volatility, and $W_t$ is a standard Brownian ...


6

Yes, in the sense that it is assumed that the delta will be passed between participants at time of execution. Not necessarily. A non delta neutral trade may be used for speculation , or for hedging.


6

You are not giving the constructor a discountCurve. The constructor is: ql.ForwardRateAgreement(valueDate, maturityDate, position, strikeForward, notional, iborIndex, discountCurve=ql.YieldTermStructureHandle()) So you should add a the spotCurveHandle as the last parameter: fra = ql.ForwardRateAgreement(ql.Date(7, 5, 2018), ql.Date(15,12,2020), ql.Position....


6

Edit: adding some references (main body is untouched) Kenneth Rogoff and Richard Meese received an incredulous reaction to their now-famous paper showing that random-walk (RW) forecasts outperform economic models of exchange rates. Reactions were along the line of “You just cannot possibly have done it right” or "the results are obviously garbage". ...


5

As Joshua mentioned, spot fx is decentralized. Furthermore, brokers (broker dealers) are reluctant to share their order-flow, mainly because it would likely reveal they are running a partial/full b-book (aggregation or internalizing client trades). This has become a sensitive topic in retail trading circles due to the temptation of dealers to 'trade ...


5

You've got your calculation of the spread wrong, for what you're trying to do. Looking at the spot prices: SGD = USD 0.8, MXN = USD 0.077, NOK = USD 0.16. So in descending order they are SGD, NOK, MXN. The order of levels on your chart is SGD, NOK, MXN. INR vs CHF is the same: CHF = USD 1.1, INR = USD 0.017, so you get a larger spread for CHF in dollar ...


5

The CME' Fed Fund Futures are what you are looking for. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/stir/30-day-federal-fund.html On settlement day they settle at the average overnight rate set by the Fed during the contract month.


5

The primary way ECNs determine if a liquidity taker's flow is 'toxic' or not is by looking at aftermath charts. The aftermath chart shows the average mark-to-market profit of trades done by the liquidity taker as a function of either time or number of top-of-book updates (optionally broken down by currency pair). The trade profit is usually viewed from the ...


5

I think you should look at it the other way around. Let $X_t$ denote the FOR/DOM spot exchange rate, i.e. 1 unit of foreign currency = $X_t$ units of domestic currency at time $t$. The FX forward rate $F^X(t,T)$ is defined as $$ F^X(t,T) = X_t \frac{B_f(t,T)}{B_d(t,T)} $$ by basence of arbitrage opportunity. To understand this, consider the following ...


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