5

As shown in Credit Risk Modeling Notes (Bielecki, Jeanblanc, Rutkowski), Corollary 1.3.1, for $t < s$, we have: $$ P(\tau \leq s | {\cal F}_t) = N\left( -Y_t \sigma^{-1}(s-t)^{-1/2}- \nu(s-t)^{1/2}\right ) + {\rm e}^{-2\nu \sigma^{-2}Y_t} N\left( -Y_t \sigma^{-1}(s-t)^{-1/2}+ \nu(s-t)^{1/2}\right ),$$ where $$ Y_t = y_0+ \nu t +\sigma W_t, \: \sigma >0,...


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