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An interesting variant from Reuters (you can do your own "simulations"): Another paper from a renowned source: Probabilistic forecasts for the 2018 FIFA World Cup based on the bookmaker consensus model Achim Zeileis (, Christoph Leitner ...


I would recommend you the following econometrics textbook Basics Econometrics, with a particular focus on multinomial logit / probit models. I guess the challenging part in your case will consist of specifying the exogenous variables, collecting data, before doing the computations. The latter being quick to perform. As far as I am concerned it's better to ...


I saw this paper by Deutsche through FT Alphaville Markets live.

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