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An interesting variant from Reuters (you can do your own "simulations"): https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/numbers-add-up-to-germany-retaining-world-cup/ Another paper from a renowned source: Probabilistic forecasts for the 2018 FIFA World Cup based on the bookmaker consensus model Achim Zeileis (achim.zeileis@r-project.org), Christoph Leitner ...


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I would recommend you the following econometrics textbook Basics Econometrics, with a particular focus on multinomial logit / probit models. I guess the challenging part in your case will consist of specifying the exogenous variables, collecting data, before doing the computations. The latter being quick to perform. As far as I am concerned it's better to ...


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I saw this paper by Deutsche through FT Alphaville Markets live.


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