# Tag Info

15

I guess it depends on what they're referring to... The traditional swap curve (LIBOR-based) is certainly not risk free, as evidenced by the experience of the financial crisis and the resulting migration to OIS discounting. The OIS curve (which is a kind of swap curve...) is now the standard risk-free curve. The Treasury yield curve is not favored, because ...

13

The underlying problem: your ACTR constraints aren't convex The $i$th constraint on your risk contribution can be written: $$w_i \sum_j \sigma_{ij} w_j \leq c_i s$$ And this isn't a convex constraint because of the $w_j w_i$ terms (a function $g(x,y)=xy$ isn't convex in $x$ and $y$). They're not convex constraints, so you won't be able to write them as ...

12

The majority of the movement in currencies is in the spot rates, rather than in the term structure. A 3-month rolling hedge would always be protecting against movements in the spot rates, no matter when they happen. Using your example, if the current EUR/USD rate is 1.3333, you might be able to get a 3-month forward at 1.3339. (Forgive me if I have the ...

11

A better, clearer, answer is to compute Lambda (leverage) of the option (link) and see if it is bigger or smaller than 1. Lambda is $\Delta \frac{S}{V}$ so we test $$\Delta \frac{S}{V} \lessgtr 1$$ which is what Joshi is saying in words: compare $\frac{1}{S}$ (delta to price for the stock, the delta of the stock is 1) to $\frac{\Delta}{V}$ (delta to price ...

11

I'm sure this falls short of proper philosophical precision, but here goes. Hark back to a slightly modified rehash of Donald Rumsfeld's infamous: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we ...

9

There is no definitive answer to this question and there are infinite papers out there. I personally think they are better explained as mispricings. Several points: 1) Persistence of HML does not imply it has to be a risk factor. If there are idiosyncratic mispricings in individual stocks, then by construction, the ones that look cheap are going to be ...

9

Values of VaR are just the inverses of the cumulative distributions. CVaR is not a very commonly used term, its more frequently used synonym is Expected Shortfall. See http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~saralees/chap17.pdf for the list of Expected Shortfall values for more than 20 distributions.

8

Different portfolio risk decompositions answer different questions. Before discussing what method to use, first ask why you want a decomposition and what definition of risk are you using. Is the point to examine how portfolio return volatility is affected by a tiny change in portfolio weights? On the other hand, if the point is to make a statement like, "30%...

7

The risk neutral drift is the risk free rate for an asset with no dividends, no cost of carry, no repo cost, etc. Otherwise the drift has to be adjusted to take these into account, and the easiest way to do it (when available) is to use forwards (equal to the expected asset value under the forward measure) or futures (equal to the expected asset value under ...

7

Note that $\beta$ is the coefficient of the portfolio regressed on the benchmark. That is \begin{align*} r_P = \alpha+\beta r_B + \varepsilon, \end{align*} where $\varepsilon$ is the residual. The standard deviation of the residual is called the residual risk. Specifically, \begin{align*} std(\varepsilon) &= \sqrt{var(r_P-\beta r_B-\alpha)}\\ &=\sqrt{...

7

What happened was totally unexpected end of peg against the euro @ 1.2CHF regime that Swiss central bank aborted. See some articles about it. As far as I know nobody in the markets knew, there was no indication whatsoever.. In terms of management, I'm afraid lots of people got heavy losses, particularly banks (Austria, Poland, Hungary) - lots of Swiss loans ...

6

I am a risk taker and I can say with confidence that you will never convince those individuals, you cited in your question, that they incur too much risk, because there will always be certain traders who prefer lottery tickets over longevity with the same firm (running high risk books unfortunately in the current environment runs equal to a free option; blow ...

6

Risk-free rate is that you get for letting someone else use your money in a riskless manner. Suppose we live in a world where there is no risk whatsoever. In particular, if you lend someone \$100 there is 100% certainty that he will pay you back in a year. Before the pay date, he can do whatever he wants with your$100, while you have no access to it. Even ...

6

Simple example where sub-additivity fails Let there be four possible outcomes $i=1,2,3,4$ that occur with equal probability $\frac{1}{4}$. Payoffs for $X$, $Y$, and $X + Y$ are given by: $$X = \begin{bmatrix}-1\\0\\1\\2 \end{bmatrix} \quad Y = \begin{bmatrix}0\\-1\\1\\2 \end{bmatrix} \quad X + Y = \begin{bmatrix}-1\\-1\\2\\4 \end{bmatrix}$$ What's the ...

6

Just a small addendum to @noob2's answer. The discrete shape of $\lambda$ is: $$\lambda \approx \frac{V_1 - V_0}{S_1 - S_0} \times \frac{S_0}{V_0}$$ which can be rewritten as $$\lambda \approx \frac{\frac{V_1 - V_0}{V_0}}{\frac{S_1 - S_0}{S_0}}$$ which is as @noob2 said just the ratio of the relative returns for option and stock.

6

As @ir7 did, I only briefly want to add to @noob2's spot-on answer. He's of course right and $\Lambda=\Delta\frac{S}{V}$ decides how risky the option is compared to the stock. Firstly, note that $\Lambda=\frac{\frac{\partial V}{V}}{\frac{\partial S}{S}}=\frac{\partial V}{\partial S}\frac{S}{V}$. An economist would call $\Lambda$ an elasticity. It tells you ...

6

You're right. Euler's equation states $$p_t=\mathbb E^\mathbb P_t[M_{t+1}X_{t+1}],$$ that is pricing under $\mathbb P$ requires you to know the stochastic discount factor (SDF, aka pricing kernel) $M$. $M$ is (typically) found in a general equilibrium setting, depending on the marginal utility of investors. (Note: a strictly positive $M$ exists if the market ...

5

I asked this question 6 years ago, and in the meantime I came across this little volume: Lévy Processes in Finance: Pricing Financial Derivatives by Wim Schoutens (2003).

5

I think what you are missing is simply the Vega-Gamma relation in the Black-Scholes model. Namely: $$Vega = \frac{\partial v}{\partial \sigma} = \sigma(T-t)S^2 \frac{\partial^2 v}{\partial S^2} = \sigma \tau S^2 \Gamma$$ Plugging this into your coverage error, you get its expression in terms of the Vega which is the most natural measurement of your ...

5

In utility theory the basic assumption is that $u(c)$ is strictly monotonically increasing in wealth: people prefer more over less. Hence, $\forall c, u'(c) > 0$. The second assumption is that the amount of utility added, as $c$ increases, diminishes, so $\forall c, u''(c) < 0$. Combining these two observations we have that $$\forall c, A(c) = \frac{-u'... 5 Try to give David Spiegelhalter a read/listen to David Spiegelhalter's work and research. He is a statistician and a Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge England. Rather than new ways of calculating risk, he looks at ways of communicating risk to a general public that doesn't have any knowledge of stats. I Linked an interesting video-... 5 Long-short strategy is generally used by hedge funds. In simple words, an equity long-short strategy means buying an undervalued stock and selling(shorting) an overvalued stock. In normal circumstances, the long position will increase in value and the short position will decline in value. In this situation, the hedge fund will benefit. This strategy would ... 5 Below you find some observations... In CAPM, we assume people are risk-averse and people get compensated for the systematic risk they suffer. The assumption that most people are risk-averse makes sense, but why are the rational investors also risk-averse? The "rational investors" prefer high (expected) returns and low volatity. In this sense, the ... 5 This is a very good question. It can be argued that risk parity is one example of a smart beta strategy. Yet it is important to understand that both are coming from two different directions: risk parity is basically a form of risk management (in the sense of risk-adjustment) because its basic approach lies in diversification - like the alternative methods ... 5 Let us ignore the riskless rate for simplicity of the presentation. If you have (historical or simulated) return series r_i for the portfolio and r_i^M for the market, then the beta is the OLS regression beta:$$ \beta = cov(r_i,r_i^M)/var(r_i^M). $$Then if you write r_i = \alpha + \beta r_i^M + \epsilon_i on the other hand$$ \epsilon_i = r_i - ( \...

5

Yes, it is correct. Underestimation: you under-estimate the risk, so you have more VaR violations than what your model predicts. Ex: With 100 observations, and a 99% VaR, you expect 1 violation but you observe 5 violations. Overestimation: you over-estimate the risk, i.e the risk is less important that you expect. You observe less VaR violations that you ...

5

I think you may be interested in this QJE forthcoming article by Ian Martin. The key idea of the article (page 5) is that the expected return on the market can be decomposed as $E_t[R_{t+1}]-R_f = \frac{1}{R_f}Var^Q(R_{t+1}) + \text{extra terms}$ As you correctly pointed out the expected return should be related with the risk neutral variance. The issue ...

5

A good starting point is the following paper: Risk Measures in Quantitative Finance by Sovan Mitra (2009) From the abstract: "[...] Despite risk measurement’s central importance to risk management, few papers exist reviewing them or following their evolution from its foremost beginnings up to the present day risk measures. This paper reviews the most ...

5

VaR is not sub-additive in general. Relying on Mark Joshi comment, there are particular cases where it can be. Such cases occur for portfolios containing elliptically distributed risk factors. Of course the normal distribution is among the elliptical distributions family. The latter can be helpful for analytical VaR modelling as an elliptical model is ...

5

Let the $n-$dimensional vector of returns $\mathbf{r}$ have a multivariate t distribution with $\nu$ degrees of freedom. The marginal distribution of any component $r_i$ has a univariate t distribution also with $\nu$ degrees of freedom. To see this, assuming mean returns have been subtracted, the multivariate t distribution decomposes as the distribution ...

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