I have written a Python script to price American options using Least Squares Monte Carlo and added a QuantLib implementation below (analytical/binomial/finite difference) to compare. The problem is that my MCLS approach seems to slightly overprice calls and underprice puts and I can't seem to find the error in the code. Any help with this/advice on the best way to normalise the underlying's price would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance!
""" AMERICAN OPTION PRICING BY LEAST SQUARES MONTE CARLO, FINITE DIFFERENCE, ANALYTICAL AND BINOMIAL METHODS """
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import os
import sys
from QuantLib import *
plt.style.use('seaborn')
# Define global parameters
S0 = 100
K = 90
valuation_date = Date(17, 4, 2017)
expiry_date = Date(17, 4, 2019)
t = (expiry_date - valuation_date) / 365
T = 100
dt = t / T
r = 0.015
sig = 0.4
sim = 10 ** 4
discount_rate = np.exp(-r * dt)
""" Least Squares Monte Carlo """
def GBM(underlying, time, simulations, rate, sigma, delta_t):
GBM = np.zeros((time + 1, simulations), dtype=np.float64)
GBM[0, :] = underlying
for t in range(1, time + 1):
brownian = np.random.standard_normal(simulations // 2)
brownian = np.concatenate((brownian, -brownian))
GBM[t, :] = (GBM[t - 1, :] * np.exp((rate - sigma ** 2 / 2.) * delta_t + sigma * brownian * np.sqrt(delta_t)))
return GBM
def Payoff(strike, paths, simulations):
if OptionType == 'call':
po = np.maximum(paths - strike, np.zeros((T + 1, simulations), dtype=np.float64))
elif OptionType == 'put':
po = np.maximum(strike - paths, np.zeros((T + 1, simulations), dtype=np.float64))
else:
print('Incorrect input')
os.execl(sys.executable, sys.executable, *sys.argv)
return po
def ValueVector(payoff, time, GBM, discount):
value_matrix = np.zeros_like(payoff)
value_matrix[-1, :] = payoff[-1, :]
for t in range(time - 1, 0, -1):
regression = np.polyfit(GBM[t, :], value_matrix[t + 1, :] * discount, 8)
continuation_value = np.polyval(regression, GBM[t, :])
value_matrix[t, :] = np.where(payoff[t, :] > continuation_value, payoff[t, :],
value_matrix[t + 1, :] * discount)
ValueVector = value_matrix[1, :] * discount
return ValueVector
def Price(ValueVector, simulations):
return np.sum(ValueVector) / float(simulations)
OptionType = str(input('Call/put:'))
print('Pricing option...')
GBM = GBM(S0, T, sim, r, sig, dt)
payoff = Payoff(K, GBM, sim)
ValueVector = ValueVector(payoff, T, GBM, discount_rate)
price = Price(ValueVector, sim)
print('Least Squares Monte Carlo Price:', price)
""" QuantLib Pricing """
S0 = SimpleQuote(S0)
if OptionType == 'call':
put_or_call = Option.Call
elif OptionType == 'put':
put_or_call = Option.Put
else:
print('Incorrect input')
os.execl(sys.executable, sys.executable, *sys.argv)
def Process(valuation_date, r, dividend_rate, sigma, underlying):
calendar = UnitedStates()
day_counter = ActualActual()
Settings.instance().evaluation_date = valuation_date
interest_curve = FlatForward(valuation_date, r, day_counter)
dividend_curve = FlatForward(valuation_date, dividend_rate, day_counter)
volatility_curve = BlackConstantVol(valuation_date, calendar, sigma, day_counter)
u = QuoteHandle(underlying)
d = YieldTermStructureHandle(dividend_curve)
r = YieldTermStructureHandle(interest_curve)
v = BlackVolTermStructureHandle(volatility_curve)
return BlackScholesMertonProcess(u, d, r, v)
def FDAmericanOption(valuation_date, expiry_date, put_or_call, K, process):
exercise = AmericanExercise(valuation_date, expiry_date)
payoff = PlainVanillaPayoff(put_or_call, K)
option = VanillaOption(payoff, exercise)
time_steps = 100
grid_points = 100
engine = FDAmericanEngine(process, time_steps, grid_points)
option.setPricingEngine(engine)
return option
def ANAmericanOption(valuation_date, expiry_date, put_or_call, K, process):
exercise = AmericanExercise(valuation_date, expiry_date)
payoff = PlainVanillaPayoff(put_or_call, K)
option = VanillaOption(payoff, exercise)
engine = BaroneAdesiWhaleyEngine(process)
option.setPricingEngine(engine)
return option
def BINAmericanOption(valuation_date, expiry_date, put_or_call, K, process):
exercise = AmericanExercise(valuation_date, expiry_date)
payoff = PlainVanillaPayoff(put_or_call, K)
option = VanillaOption(payoff, exercise)
timeSteps = 10 ** 3
engine = BinomialVanillaEngine(process, 'crr', timeSteps)
option.setPricingEngine(engine)
return option
def FDAmericanResults(option):
print('Finite Differences Price: ', option.NPV())
# print('Delta: ', option.delta())
# print('Gamma: ', option.gamma())
def ANAmericanResults(option):
print('Barone-Adesi-Whaley Analytical Price: ', option.NPV())
def BINAmericanResults(option):
print('Binomial CRR Price: ', option.NPV())
process = Process(valuation_date, r, 0, sig, S0)
FDoption = FDAmericanOption(valuation_date, expiry_date, put_or_call, K, process)
FDAmericanResults(FDoption)
ANoption = ANAmericanOption(valuation_date, expiry_date, put_or_call, K, process)
ANAmericanResults(ANoption)
BINoption = BINAmericanOption(valuation_date, expiry_date, put_or_call, K, process)
BINAmericanResults(BINoption)