1
$\begingroup$

I'm trying to do Monte Carlo simulation paths of an asset price with time step $\Delta t$ via the discretised Euler scheme. My main question is how does the variance process influence the asset price simulation on the next time step, $(t+\Delta t)$ from the equations below?

First off, let the discretised asset price process be: \begin{eqnarray} S_{t+\Delta t} = S_t \exp \left( \left(\mu - \frac{1}{2} v_t^{+} \right) \Delta t + \sqrt{v_t^{+} \Delta t} Z_S \right) \end{eqnarray}

The fully truncated scheme of variance process is as follows: \begin{eqnarray} \ v_{t+\Delta t} &=& \ v_t + \kappa (\theta - \ v_t^{+}) \Delta t + \sigma \sqrt{\ v_t^{+} \Delta t} Z_V, \end{eqnarray}

with correlation equation $Z_S = \rho Z_V + \sqrt{1-\rho^2}Z_2$. Where $Z_V$ and $Z_2$ are independent standard normal variables.
Next, substituting the correlation equation into the asset price process gives us: \begin{eqnarray} S_{t+\Delta t} = S_t \exp \left( \left(\mu - \frac{1}{2} v_t^{+} \right) \Delta t + \sqrt{v_t^{+} \Delta t}* \left( \rho Z_V + \sqrt{1-\rho^2}Z_2 \right) \right) \end{eqnarray}


In simple terms, to get the next simulated price $S_{t+\Delta t}$, I've first:
1. Find the value of the discretised variance process $v_{t+\Delta t}$.
2. Find the value of the asset price of $S_{t+\Delta t}$ using the same independent variable $Z_V$ found in step 1; $v_{t+\Delta t}$.

THE PROBLEM
Now, I am not sure what to do with the value of $v_{t+\Delta t}$ since variance $v_{t}$ in step 2 are all using the previous period (1 time step back) values. Do I substitute the value found in step 1 into $v_t$ found in $S_{t+\Delta t}$?
However, I know that $v_t$ in $S_{t+\Delta t}$ only corresponds to the instantaneous variance value at time $t$ (or the previous time step so to speak) so it wouldn't make sense to use $v_{t+\Delta t}$ as the 'instantaneous' value.

Just a brief info, I'm only using Excel for this problem since I'm merely trying to understand the mechanics of how the Heston model works in 'real-time' for pricing an asset (not options but instead non-derivative assets like stocks for instance).
Any enlightenment and education would be very much appreciated.
$\endgroup$
3
  • $\begingroup$ Your question is quite confusing, what exactly are steps 1 and 2? $\endgroup$
    – KaiSqDist
    Commented May 18 at 21:42
  • $\begingroup$ Apologies for the confusion. Steps 1 and 2 are both merely descriptions of what I've done and understood to simulate $S_{t+ \Delta t}$ asset price in question, not the time steps if that's what you thought I was referring to. The question is does the value of the variance process used in the asset price process of the next time step? <br/> For example, do we use the value $v_{t+ \Delta t}$ calculated at time 1 for the asset price $S_{t+ \Delta t}$ at time 2? $\endgroup$
    – AQT
    Commented May 19 at 11:18
  • $\begingroup$ Yes that's correct, which is exactly what I explained in my answer below. $\endgroup$
    – KaiSqDist
    Commented May 19 at 13:10

1 Answer 1

1
$\begingroup$

I am not quite sure what is your confusion here.

If I understood what you meant, you use $v_{t+\Delta t}$ in $S_{t+2\Delta t}$ simulation. This repeats until the maturity of the option. The only reason you simulate the variance rate is because it is to be used for the next period.

$\endgroup$
7
  • $\begingroup$ Thank you very much for the confirmation. However, I have 1 more question. Do we use the same value used in $Z_V$ in $v_{t+ \Delta t}$ for the calculation of $S_{t+2 \Delta t}$? For example, if $Z_V=1.1$ in $v_{t+ \Delta t}$, then we use the same value $Z_V=1.1$ for $Z_V$ in the correlation equation of $S_{t+2 \Delta t}$? $\endgroup$
    – AQT
    Commented Jun 10 at 13:56
  • $\begingroup$ Why do you have to care about the correlation equation though? The correlation part is already included in the stochastic process for $S_{t+2\Delta t}$ $\endgroup$
    – KaiSqDist
    Commented Jun 10 at 14:33
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Apologies for any confusion. Yes I know that the correlation equation is part of the price process calculation. What I meant was if the value of the variable $Z_V$ in both $v_{t+ \Delta t}$ and $S_{t+2 \Delta t}$ must strictly be the same to simulate the asset price of the next time step. Example, if an arbitrary number $Z_V = 1.1$ is used, then both the variance and asset price process must use $Z_V = 1.1$. The reason why I need to know exactly is because I need to be completely sure that I’m simulating each time step correctly. $\endgroup$
    – AQT
    Commented Jun 10 at 14:44
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Oh I see. No, the $Z_V$ should be different ($Z_V$ should be the same period as $S_{t+2\Delta t}$). As the $Z_S$ "belongs" to the stock price simulation, it should be the same period, but for the variance rate it should lag. $\endgroup$
    – KaiSqDist
    Commented Jun 10 at 15:03
  • $\begingroup$ I've implemented a fix to my calculation sheet with regards to $Z_V$ in both $v_{t+ \Delta t}$ and $S_{t+2 \Delta t}$ so that both processes use different values. However, I noticed that having $\rho = -0.9$ or $\rho = 0.9$ does not influence the expected value (or mean) of the Monte Carlo simulations. Is this an intended effect? Previously, I fixated $Z_V$ for both $v_{t+ \Delta t}$ and $S_{t+2 \Delta t}$ to be the same values and the result is having a mean that increases/decreases (changes) with positive/negative $\rho$ respectively. I've since fixed it as mentioned though. $\endgroup$
    – AQT
    Commented Jun 10 at 16:18

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.