Let's say you have The FRAs 1x4F, 2x5F, 3x6F, 4x7F, 5x8F... (meaning 3 months rate today, 3 months rate in 1 month, etc..) at 5.5, 5.5, 5.6, 5.55, 5.55.

Assume today's date is 20/09/2019.

You also have central bank meetings on 21/11/2019, 15/01/2020, 26/03/2020

How would you use this to predict the central bank's decisions at those dates?


You do not directly use FRAs to predict central bank rate moves. Instead you tend to use fed fund ois rates because they are more directly reliable as a proxy for those rates.

Otherwise you might first FRAs to estimate the ffois rates and then from there estimate the central bank rates


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