Questions tagged [mean-reversion]

A mean reverting process is a process that, over time, tends to drift toward its long-term mean.

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Why does AR(1) model with a small coefficient exhibit faster mean-reversion than one with a greater coefficient (when |$\beta$|<1)?

Suppose we have two mean-reverting AR(1) models, given by $$X_{t}=\beta X_{t-1}+\epsilon_t,$$ where $|\beta|<1$. How fast series reverts to its mean is determined by the coefficient $\beta$. As far ...
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Modeling mean-reversion for different volatility regimes

Motivation: Half-life (HL) period shows how long it takes for a mean-reverting process to return halfway to its mean after a deviation. Most commonly, an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process is applied to ...
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Interpretation and intuition behind half-life of a mean reverting process

I am struggling to understand the intuition and use of half-life period of a mean reverting process. According to definition, half-life period shows how long it takes for a time series to return ...
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What is the common accepted/ best performed method to classify trends and mean-reversion for fixed peroid?

I have knew some strategies only work on trends peroid, and other only works on mean-reversion peroid. But I didn't find how to classify trends and mean-reversion. I wonder the best performed/verified ...
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Price spread or ratio for mean reversion pair trading

I am slightly confused as to whether I should use price spread or ratio for mean reversion in pair trading. I have seen some work on testing stationarity for the price spread and then use the price ...
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portfolio weights based on past returns

In the academic paper Industries and Stock Return Reversals by Hameed and Mian (JFQA,2015) (see picture below), the authors describe a trading strategy based on reversal, which essentially buys past ...
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Setting up kalman filter on basket of multiple securities which are cointegrated

I want to use mean reversion trading strategy. I am able to find 3 stocks which are cointegrated on closing prices at daily level. Im curious on what's the trading strategy using kalman filter. I can ...
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Determine Dependent Variable Product

Let's say I have three products that are correlated (e.g. AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN). I would like to construct a spread between these products and trade the mean-reverting spread. Specifically, sell the ...
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Linear Regression Cointegration Strategy

When doing linear regression to figure out the hedge ratio for the cointegration relationship what does it mean if the residuals are stationary but end up looking like the price time series of y? How ...
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Converting Annual Vol to Instantaneous Vol with Mean Reversion [closed]

Options Pricing and Mean Reversion In the question above, in the accepted answer, the writer claims: "For instance with a 100% mean reversion a 20% historical annual standard deviation would ...
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Generalizing a hidden semi-Markov model for trading

Taken from Wikipedia: A hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) is a statistical model with the same structure as a hidden Markov model except that the unobservable process is semi-Markov rather than Markov. ...
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Why aren't the optimal entry/exit thresholds for OU pairs trading relatively invariant to shifts in the OU mean?

The optimal entry/exit thresholds for mean reversion trading (assuming an underlying Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process) is derived in the paper "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading with Transaction ...
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StatArb : Fourier transform to find the perfect factor?

We have a basic mean reverting strategy. Given a bench of assets, we are looking for the best linear combination of them such as the resulting normalized time series would be noisy at high frequencies ...
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How to predict a portfolio's reversion?

Sorry if this has been asked before. I've been baffled by a question I'm facing. Assuming I know there are some certain demands for some stocks in near future, and I put them in a basket as a ...
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Trading based on the log return series

A common strategy in trading is to use a bollinger band system. Simply put, we bet on reversion to the mean and take the opposite trade to the current movement under the assumption a move is overdone. ...
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Mean Reversion without Bollinger Band

What are the ways one can trade mean reversion apart from using Bollinger Bands?
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Dumb question : under the assumption of the normal distribution and using log return stationarity

Under the assumption of the normal distribution, I'm trying to create a single stock mean reversion strategy. I took the log returns because they are stationary, I standardized them and used the ...
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Why do I need fancy methods to calculate half-life of mean reversion?

I am investigating ways to calculate the mean reversion half life of a mean reverting series. I am encountering things like the Ornstein – Uhlenbeck Process and various types of regression to estimate ...
Vladimir Belik's user avatar
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Correlation between fundamental and market data

I got hold of a data set which contains fundamental data like analyst recommendations/revisions (consensus only) and I am trying to come up with an idea of how this could be used as a trading signal ...
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Why is my mean-reversion half-life completely wrong?

I am using a couple of resources (here and here) to calculate the mean reversion half-life of a time series. This method of calculating it is also presented in Ernest Chan's Algorithmic Trading on ...
Vladimir Belik's user avatar
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How to incorporate momentum in Ornstein Uhlenbeck to capture overshooting in financial markets?

In modelling asset prices, it is a good idea to model it using a fair value or target price concept. Recently Carr & Prado explored this idea to find optimal stop loss/take profit levels when the ...
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How to derive a pricing PDE for an asset that follows a mean-reverting process?

I want to derive a Black-Scholes type partial differential equation to price options on an asset that follows a mean-reverting process (Schwartz model). My attempt follows the methodology of deriving ...
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Question about calendar spread mean-reversion strategy

I'm excited to ask my first question here! I'll try to describe the mean-reversion strategy with some background, then explain what I couldn't understand. The strategy is described in Earnest Chan's ...
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Calibrating OU parameters using AR(1)

I have a mean reverting time series and want to find the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) parameters of it. I researched the internet and found that we can calibrate the model as a simple AR(1) process, $$\...
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Simulating exponential Vasicek/Ornstein-Uhlenbeck

I am trying to simulate commodity prices using the exponential Vasicek/Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model from Schwartz 1997 p. 926 Equation (1). I am using the closed form solution from Vega 2018 p. 5 Equation ...
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Estimating Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process drift

What is the easiest way to obtain a drift parameter of O-U process given I have $\mu$? Is it ok to linearize the O-U process like so: $P_{t} = \mu + \phi(P_{t-1}-\mu)+\xi_t$ Form vectors from historic ...
spacemonkey's user avatar
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Hull white model calibration - constant mean reverse factor and sigma

I setup a HW 1F model using Monte Carlo simulation with constant mean reversion and volatility factors. When I calibrate to a series of swaptions ( 1x4yr;2x3yr;3x2yr;4x1yr),the last three swaption ...
marietta's user avatar
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Hull-White Monte Carlo simulation - mean reversion function

Quite new to implementing Hull white model in Monte Carlo simulation, hope to get help for 1. how to get the function $\theta$ in the following formula (the function used to match initial term ...
marietta's user avatar
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What's the intuition behind factor grouping?

From the book "Finding Alpha", written by a popular quant fund WorldQuant, explains many techniques about quantitative investing but intentionally omits many of the caveats and applications ...
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Covariance of mean-reverting Vasicek process?

I am dealing with a mean-reverting Vasicek process defined as: \begin{equation} S_t = S_0 e^{-at} + b(1-e^{(-at)}) + \sigma e^{(-at)} \int_{0}^{t} e^{(-as)} \ W_t \end{equation} I want to ...
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How to perform Monte Carlo simulations to price a Forward contract under the Schwartz mean reverting model?

Objective: (1) Implement the Euler Explicit Method for solving the PDE for option prices under the Schwartz mean reverting model. (2) Compare with a Monte Carlo simulation. I'm stuck with point 1 (...
sound wave's user avatar
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Pairs Trading: Normalized price series (co-integrated and correlated) always end up diverging

Need some expert advice and suggestions: I am trying out pairs trading or statistical arbitrage (as traders say). But even if two price series are co-integrated (ADF test, Hurst exponent, Ornstein–...
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Solution to Stock Price SDE with mean reversion [duplicate]

Suppose $S_t$ follows the process (notice the $S_t$ term in the diffusion part): $$ S_t := S_0 + \int_{h=t_0}^{h=t}\alpha(\mu -S_h)dh + \int_{h=t_0}^{h=t}\sigma S_h dW(h) $$. I actually don't know how ...
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The distribution of mean reversion time from the OU process

I was reading the paper Statistical Arbitrage in the US Equity Market and I couldn't understand the figure that plots the histogram of the empirical distribution of characteristic time to mean ...
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Cointegration stationary test yields different results if the pairs are swapped

I've been backtesting on a spread mean reversion strategy on certain stock pairs. I observe the stationarity via scatterplot and plotting a histogram. Then I verify it using Augmented Dickey Fuller ...
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Can one successfully daytrade 0dte options based on RSI?

I've been doing that manually for 2 months successfully (40% ROI) with SPX 0-1 DTE (Days To Expiration) options, both puts and calls. I might be just lucky so I purchased some data to do backtesting ...
john don's user avatar
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1 answer
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pairs trading algorithm with returns

I'm having a difficulty grasping how to write a pair algorithm using returns instead of prices. With price differences, I have the mean difference over a long time period. When the current price ...
Don Chambers's user avatar
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What the most general but precise description one can make about mean-reversion and momentum strategies?

Is there anything about this metaphor of momentum and mean-reversion in markets that is more subtle, more general. What factors are amenable to the interpretation? Are people almost always referring ...
mathtick's user avatar
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What is a good way to think about and estimate VIX half life?

Would it make sense to run an AR(1) regression to estimate a beta and then estimate the half life as -ln(2)/beta?
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Negative values in CIR model

I'm having difficulty understanding the well known property of the CIR model that it can't go below zero. Wikipedia says that this is because the random shock on the rate will grow very small as r ...
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Mean-reverting backtest between index and components [closed]

I am a beginner with ETF replication: I have to make a code to make the value of my assets go back to the average of the index Eurostoxx 50 with a subset of components. I am not sure how to implement ...
Revolucion for Monica's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
258 views

Pairs Trading parameters

I am looking to optimize the open/close signals and time for a pairs trading strategy my partner and I are researching. We don't want to go p-hacking so we have been trying to decide: We have 20+ ...
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Negative Hurst exponent

I am trying to test Hurst exponent in different time lag range. However, i got negative values in some time lag range which is weird, because the Hurst exponent should have values within the range ...
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Pairs Trading situation with spread changes

I'm setting up pairs trades by summing the distances squared (SSD). After determining the best pairs, I have to track the spread between the normalized prices. Am I noticing something that is ...
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William K. Bertram's sharpe formula checking

I have some issues to verify by simulation the formulas in the paper of William K. Bertram "Analytic solutions for optimal statistical arbitrage trading". first, the reversion parameter alpha=180 in ...
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mean reversion model estimation - what method?

how can I estimate this model for mean reversion?
Michael R's user avatar
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2 answers
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Reference on Futures basis trading strategy

I have heard that it is possible to trade on the futures basis. In my understanding, the futures basis is essentially the difference between the futures price and the underlying asset (also referred ...
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Stochastic process with determinstic frequency of regime changes

Suppose that I have an OU process. For instance, assume that I want to model the interest rates. Suppose that regime change is known ex ante, and is deterministic in terms of frequency (For instance, ...
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Options Pricing and Mean Reversion

I'm confused about the impact that a mean reverting stock price process has on the value of an option on it. Several sources say that there is indeed an impact on the price of an option: Option ...
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Expanding window vs Rolling window z-score

I wish to find the z-score of a value measure( e/g P/E ratio) to compare them across asset classes, currently i am using an expanding window z-score to calculate the long-term mean and standard ...
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