# Questions tagged [mean-reversion]

A mean reverting process is a process that, over time, tends to drift toward its long-term mean.

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### portfolio weights based on past returns

In the academic paper Industries and Stock Return Reversals by Hameed and Mian (JFQA,2015) (see picture below), the authors describe a trading strategy based on reversal, which essentially buys past ...
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### Setting up kalman filter on basket of multiple securities which are cointegrated

I want to use mean reversion trading strategy. I am able to find 3 stocks which are cointegrated on closing prices at daily level. Im curious on what's the trading strategy using kalman filter. I can ...
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### Determine Dependent Variable Product

Let's say I have three products that are correlated (e.g. AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN). I would like to construct a spread between these products and trade the mean-reverting spread. Specifically, sell the ...
102 views

### Linear Regression Cointegration Strategy

When doing linear regression to figure out the hedge ratio for the cointegration relationship what does it mean if the residuals are stationary but end up looking like the price time series of y? How ...
1 vote
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### Converting Annual Vol to Instantaneous Vol with Mean Reversion [closed]

Options Pricing and Mean Reversion In the question above, in the accepted answer, the writer claims: "For instance with a 100% mean reversion a 20% historical annual standard deviation would ...
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### Generalizing a hidden semi-Markov model for trading

Taken from Wikipedia: A hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) is a statistical model with the same structure as a hidden Markov model except that the unobservable process is semi-Markov rather than Markov. ...
81 views

### log-normal random walk VS mean reverting random walk?

I'm reading Wilmott's book. He talks about several model as : log normal random walk and mean reverting random walk. I don't find answer to these questions : In this chart : let's assume that Part 1 ...
250 views

### Why aren't the optimal entry/exit thresholds for OU pairs trading relatively invariant to shifts in the OU mean?

The optimal entry/exit thresholds for mean reversion trading (assuming an underlying Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process) is derived in the paper "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading with Transaction ...
1 vote
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### StatArb : Fourier transform to find the perfect factor?

We have a basic mean reverting strategy. Given a bench of assets, we are looking for the best linear combination of them such as the resulting normalized time series would be noisy at high frequencies ...
1 vote
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### How to predict a portfolio's reversion?

Sorry if this has been asked before. I've been baffled by a question I'm facing. Assuming I know there are some certain demands for some stocks in near future, and I put them in a basket as a ...
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### Trading based on the log return series

A common strategy in trading is to use a bollinger band system. Simply put, we bet on reversion to the mean and take the opposite trade to the current movement under the assumption a move is overdone. ...
1 vote
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### Mean Reversion without Bollinger Band

What are the ways one can trade mean reversion apart from using Bollinger Bands?
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### Dumb question : under the assumption of the normal distribution and using log return stationarity

Under the assumption of the normal distribution, I'm trying to create a single stock mean reversion strategy. I took the log returns because they are stationary, I standardized them and used the ...
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### Why do I need fancy methods to calculate half-life of mean reversion?

I am investigating ways to calculate the mean reversion half life of a mean reverting series. I am encountering things like the Ornstein – Uhlenbeck Process and various types of regression to estimate ...
1 vote
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### Correlation between fundamental and market data

I got hold of a data set which contains fundamental data like analyst recommendations/revisions (consensus only) and I am trying to come up with an idea of how this could be used as a trading signal ...
1 vote
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### Why is my mean-reversion half-life completely wrong?

I am using a couple of resources (here and here) to calculate the mean reversion half-life of a time series. This method of calculating it is also presented in Ernest Chan's Algorithmic Trading on ...
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### How to incorporate momentum in Ornstein Uhlenbeck to capture overshooting in financial markets?

In modelling asset prices, it is a good idea to model it using a fair value or target price concept. Recently Carr & Prado explored this idea to find optimal stop loss/take profit levels when the ...
547 views

### How to derive a pricing PDE for an asset that follows a mean-reverting process?

I want to derive a Black-Scholes type partial differential equation to price options on an asset that follows a mean-reverting process (Schwartz model). My attempt follows the methodology of deriving ...
633 views

I'm excited to ask my first question here! I'll try to describe the mean-reversion strategy with some background, then explain what I couldn't understand. The strategy is described in Earnest Chan's ...
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### Position sizing for a mean reversion strategy

I have a model that returns z scores for a mean reversion strategy where z score is the current price minus average and divided by vol. At the moment, positions are sized inverse linear to the z ...