Questions tagged [risk]

The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

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30 views

Where can I get historical updates to equity risk models (e.g. Barra)?

In risk models (such as Barra), new factors are added over time, and the model structures are also changed over time. I hope to get as much information on historical changes as possible. Apart from ...
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64 views

Non financial risk management

I am looking for some discussion papers, research insights on the Digital risk for fintech companies, bank etc. what they should. consider when offering their services (banking, lending etc.) ...
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116 views

Dependence between Credit Default Risk and Credit Spread Risk

I am trying to understand the difference and similarities between Credit Spread Risk and Credit Default Risk. Here is brief (and not all too precise) definition. Credit Spread Risk: Losses due to ...
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32 views

How to use CAPM model to calculate expected value of portfolio?

Let's assume that vector $(R_1, R_2, R_3)$ has multivariate normal distribution $N(\mu, \Sigma)$ where $\mu = (2, 6, 4)$ and $$\Sigma^{-1} = \begin{bmatrix} 2 & 2 & 2\\ 2 & 4 & 4 \\ 2 &...
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182 views

Realized Variance (realized volatility)

I'm confused about realized variance. I roughly know the theory around Ito Calculus and quadratic variation and integrated volatility so I understand what realized variance measures (even though as ...
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Capital Charge or Capital add on for Concentration risk using Model-free measure standardised HHI (Herfindahl Hirschman Index)

I am looking to calculate the Capital Charge or Capital Add on for Concentration risk using standardised approach using HHI Below is the HHI index calculation What is procedure to calculate the ...
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46 views

Sharpe ratio differs from Tradingview

I tried to backtest a simple strategy on TradingView, it made 6 trades with these results: Now I want to calculate Sharpe ratio using definition provided by TradingView. So, my daily returns(...
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55 views

Interest rate risk calculation for Banking book

There is a detailed discussions on the Interest rate risk for Banking book. For Floating rate bond, this states like below - such positions generate cash flows that are not predictable past the next ...
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1answer
59 views

Joint probability of default

Had a couple of questions from Jorion's FRM book (5th edition, page 438, Table 18.2 shown below). The book has a very stylized example as shown in the table below. The example shows how to calculate ...
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Estimate of loan risk due to change in income

Disclaimer: despite working at a bank, my background is in data science and not in quantitative finance. I'm very likely to miss certain technical terms of the domain and if that's the case, I'd ...
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30 views

Statistical Inference of Variance Risk Premia

Good afternoon, I am currently following Carr and Wu (2009) to compute variance risk premia from options written as (RV-EV)*100 for the payoff of a long var swap position. Now I want to see whether my ...
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What happens if my risk factor caught by statistical risk model using PCA turns out to be totally different from other PM's risk factor? [closed]

In order to explain systematic risk we use risk factors and I've learned that since they try to explain 'systematic' risk, risk factors are relatively well-known. However, what happens if the risk ...
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Deriving the risk-aversion coefficient

By considering the parametrised formulation of the mean-variance criterion by Markowitz, the risk aversion coefficient $\lambda$ can be derived as follow. As suggested by Arrow and Pratt, given the ...
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80 views

What are some advanced methods for bond risk transformations?

Consider a portfolio of bonds within a given yield curve (e.g. Gilt curve), consisting of positions in every bond in the curve. I'm looking for ways to transform the risk of the portfolio into ...
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77 views

Equivalence of Standard Deviation and Variance as a risk measure - WRONG?

In Modern Portfolio Theory, I often see that people seem to view Standard Deviation and Variance as equivalent. Example from Markowitz himself: "Thus far I have used the standard deviation ...
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1answer
69 views

VaR and Expected Shorfall estimations with negative shape parameter of a GPD (Extreme Value Theory )

So im trying to replicate an code from the Quantative Risk Management Book (https://github.com/qrmtutorial/qrm/blob/master/code/09_Market_Risk/09_Standard_methods_for_market_risk.R). But when i try a ...
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35 views

Implications of modeling operational risks without frequency distribution

When modeling operational risk, the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) is widely used. Usually, we model the loss frequency distribution and the loss severity distribution and then aggregate both to ...
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102 views

Does “risk premium” imply a difference in expected value?

I'm trying to understand the term "risk premium". I keep seeing statements like this (from Investopedia) "A risk premium is the investment return an asset is expected to yield in excess ...
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771 views

Knightian uncertainty versus Black Swan event

I struggle to understand the difference between Knightian uncertainty versus Black Swan event. If I understand at least the basic premises, both views say that uncertainty is different from risk, and ...
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1answer
61 views

Estimating delta of VX futures to S&P 500

I'm trying to think about the right way to estimate the delta of a VX contract to the S&P 500. VX futures are on the VIX index, which is a basket of S&P 500 options. By extension, VX and ES (E-...
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319 views

FX Delta of a cross currency basis swap

I would like to understand in which case there is a presence of FX delta risk factor when trading a Cross-currency basis swap. By FX Delta, I mean the sensitivy of my swap PV with respect to FX Spot ...
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77 views

10-day VaR for a portfolio

So, Bank ANZ owns a portfolio of options on the USD/GBP exchange rate. The delta equivalent position of the portfolio is GBP 56.00. The current exchange rate is 1.5, with a daily volatility of 0.7 ...
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53 views

Calculation of Regulatory Capital

As per my understanding, the Regulatory capital for a Financial institution is calculated as sum of ...
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Portfolio Risk Contribution

I came across a paper that shows calculations for two types of portfolio risk contribution. The first shows "Asset risk contributions" and the second shows "Correlation-weighted asset ...
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4answers
113 views

Where can I find a current tail risk indicator?

The definition of tail risk (risk of 3-standard deviations movement) seems to imply there would be a current market indicator for this. Is there such an indicator available somewhere?
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165 views

The best “risk measure” for an investor who does not want to lose any of his seed money

Question There is an investor who is afraid of losing any of his seed money (initial investment). Variance of investment returns is not a problem to him. He is willing to take variance as long as he ...
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What is relationship Risk,Market Price of Risk and it's sign?

Now I'm studying this textbook ( Fixed Income Securities by Veronesi ). But this page gets me some trouble. I know that yield and Bond Price have negative relationship. But in this image, it says ...
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188 views

Monte Carlo simulations of correlated stocks by Geometric Brownian motion

I am trying to simulate using a Geometric Brownian Motion process three autocorrelated stocks. In particular, I need to simulate three different matrices with 1000 scenarios each using a Monte Carlo ...
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79 views

Show that portfolio's percentage contribution to loss (PCL) equals PCR (risk)

I came across this question during self study on a quantitative book (Question 3.6 on Page 75 of Quantitative Equity Portfolio Management: Modern Techniques and Applications By Edward E. Qian, Ronald ...
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Is there no fix to improving portfolio risk estimation under small sample size?

When asked if copula are needed to calculate portfolio Value-at-Risk, it is said that "You can use historical method if you have sufficiently enough data". But actually copula are also ...
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1answer
68 views

Risk-Neutrality: Discount factors of the $P$ world according to risk preferences?

I am coming to terms with the connections between the so-called $P$ world and the $Q$ world. In my understanding, the risk-neutral measure $Q$ induces a probability space under which investors are ...
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74 views

Industry or academic standard frequency to report the return, standard deviation, and Sharpe ratio?

Everyone (funds, banks, academics, financial information sites etc.) reports the annualized return, standard deviation, and Sharpe ratio. Yet we never get to know what the basis of their computation ...
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49 views

Why is standard error used to show diversification effect for unsystematic risk?

quite long text incoming, sorry for that: While reading a corporate finance textbook, i came across a section describing the effect of diversification as well as the systematic and unsystematic risk. ...
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199 views

Are momentum returns negatively skewed?

In the academic literature, I found that momentum returns are negatively skewed (e.g. Daniel and Moskowitz, 2002). As far as I understand, this usually happens when the "past losers" rebound ...
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376 views

Approximating Sharpe and Sortino ratios from Exponential moving averages

So I've been studying the paper "Learning To Trade via Direct Reinforcement" Moody and Saffell (2001) which describes in detail how to use exponential moving estimates (EMAs) of returns at ...
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93 views

Portfolio vs individual security Sharpe and Sortino ratios

For an individual security calculating it's Sharpe and Sortino ratios is straightforward. What I'm curious about is the following: Let's say I have a portfolio of several securities, which is a ...
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45 views

Multi-period Basel/Vasicek formula

I need to apply Basel/Vasicek formula to a 20-years horizon, both from a 20-years cumulative perspective and year-on-year basis. Please find below the formula of the Basel Capital (ie. unexpected loss)...
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460 views

Why is portfolio optimization a convex problem if variance is concave?

Variance is concave, so portfolio risk must be too. The mean-variance model employs quadratic programming to optimize (minimize) portfolio risk. My understanding is that quadratic programming requires ...
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55 views

Good ways to select best decision among N decisions, each with a profit/loss distribution? [closed]

I'm working on a problem where an asset owner (e.g., owner of a factory, power plant, etc.) can take a number of possible decisions (say 10). Each of those 10 decisions entails certain actions, but ...
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359 views

Backtesting of Risk models

I am wondering if there is any difference between 2 terms call model backtesting and model validation from the perspective of <...
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27 views

lot size formula for cfd and forex based on risk percentage

I have a question regarding the calculation of the lot size for cfd and forex instruments when we have a risk amount as a percentage of the balance. So how to compute the lot size to trade knowing the ...
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2answers
320 views

Cashflow Risk vs Discount Risk

Studying asset pricing, I often hear the terms cashflow risk and discount risk but I'm not sure what they mean? The Campbell/Shiller (1988) decomposition includes cashflows (future dividends) and ...
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ESG risk factors

In the context of EU action on sustainable finance, the European Commission has initiated a series of regulations in order to achieve the goals of Paris Agreement on sustainability. One of those ...
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1answer
53 views

Textbook about methodologies for computing margins (TIMS and SPAN)

I'm reading and trying to understand TIMS and SPAN methodologies for margin calculations. In the internet I found these 2 great resources and that's what I'm using to get familiar with things: TIMS ...
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Which is riskier: a call option or the underlying?

From Joshi's Quant Interview Questions and Answers: What is riskier: a call option or the underlying? (Consider a one day time horizon and compute which has bigger Delta as a fraction of value). I ...
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liquidity of a portfolio of options

In the asset management industry, many reports contain liquidity metrics such as the no. of days to liquidate 95% of a position, based on a certain participation rate. If that position is a stock or a ...
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Is there a way to formulate a Martingale series that will never explode?

Martingale's betting method can be seen here:https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/martingale.asp My question is if there is a way to put a non-exploding martingale, [There is one attempt to ...
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Is there a clear mathematical statement of what problem Hierarchical Risk Parity is solving?

Prado's paper is really just an algorithm for solving some inverse problem. Has anyone seen a clear statement of that inverse problem? Or do you know how to write it simply? The first step is just a ...
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186 views

Risk-Weighted assets and Risk Weight

I am not really sure I understand the meaning of Risk weight defined as RW = RWA/EAD, where EAD = Exposure at Default RWA = Risk-Weighted assets From a bank's perspective: If I have two portfolios, ...
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267 views

Optimizing a portfolio whose risk is target expected shortfall

I want to maximize the return of a $n$-asset portfolio under known risk: $$\max_{\{w \in \mathbb{R}^{n}|w_{1}+...+w_{n}=1\}} \; \mathbb{E}\left[\sum_{i=1}^{n}w_{i}R_{i}\right]$$ under the constraint $$...

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